Annual Program Health Report Cards

Each of the 120 FBS programs were evaluated for program health. To calculate program health, the average of the final Rogers Poll score over the last four seasons for each team is calculated. Every program is then ranked based on that average. An 'A' grade is given to the Top 15. Numbers 16-40 earn a 'B', 41-80 a 'C', 81-105 a 'D', and 106-120 a 'F'.

Rogers Poll scores date back to the beginning of the BCS era, the 1998 season. A report, complete with all historical scores and aggregates, is available here (PDF format).

In the provided report, programs whose average score over the last four years (2005-2008) notably exceeds that of their average score prior to then (1998-2004) are denoted as programs on the rise. Programs whose average score over the last four years is notably less than that of their prior average are denoted as programs in decline.

While USC rates as the healthiest individual program, The SEC owns the healthiest constituency. The Sun Belt owns the weakest group. Every BCS AQ conference had at least one 'A' grade. The Mountain West and WAC were the only non-AQ leagues to have 'A' graded programs. Only the MAC and Sun Belt failed to post at least one 'B' grade or higher.

The SEC, Big XII, Pac-10, and Big Ten were the only conferences to have no 'F' graded programs. The SEC claimed the most 'A' grades with three. The WAC, MAC, and Sun Belt each posted three 'F' grades, tying for the most. A complete breakdown follows.

SEC (2.67 GPA)
A 4. Florida
A 7. LSU
A 11. Georgia
B 20. Alabama
B 21. Auburn
B 35. Tennessee
B 39. South Carolina
C 50. Arkansas
C 60. Kentucky
C 71. Vanderbilt
D 81. Ole Miss
D 95. Mississippi State

Big XII (2.50 GPA)
A 2. Texas
A 5. Oklahoma
B 17. Missouri
B 19. Texas Tech
B 29. Kansas
B 31. Nebraska
C 51. Oklahoma State
C 58. Texas A&M
C 69. Kansas State
C 76. Colorado
D 97. Baylor
D 100. Iowa State

Big East (2.50 GPA)
A 6. West Virginia
B 24. Louisville
B 27. Rutgers
B 30. USF
B 33. Cincinnati
C 55. Pittsburgh
C 61. Connecticut
F 107. Syracuse

ACC (2.50 GPA)
A 9. Virginia Tech
A 13. Boston College
B 28. Clemson
B 32. Wake Forest
B 34. Florida State
B 36. Georgia Tech
C 43. Miami
C 46. Maryland
C 54. Virginia
C 73. North Carolina
C 74. NC State
F 117. Duke

Pac-10 (2.40 GPA)
A 1. USC
A 14. Oregon
B 22. California
B 25. Oregon State
B 40. Arizona State
C 41. UCLA
C 67. Arizona
D 92. Washington State
D 96. Stanford
D 102. Washington

Big Ten (2.36 GPA)
A 3. Ohio State
A 8. Penn State
B 16. Wisconsin
B 26. Michigan
C 47. Iowa
C 52. Michigan State
C 59. Northwestern
C 64. Purdue
C 72. Minnesota
D 90. Illinois
D 94. Indiana

Mountain West (2.00 GPA)
A 12. TCU
A 15. BYU
B 18. Utah
C 65. Air Force
C 66. New Mexico
D 84. Colorado State
D 88. Wyoming
D 103. San Diego State
F 109. UNLV

Independents (1.67 GPA)
B 37. Notre Dame
C 44. Navy
F 108. Army

WAC (1.56 GPA)
A 10. Boise State
B 38. Hawaii
C 53. Nevada
C 56. Fresno State
C 75. Louisiana Tech
D 85. San Jose State
F 114. Utah State
F 116. New Mexico State
F 118. Idaho

C-USA (1.42 GPA)
B 23. Tulsa
C 45. Houston
C 48. Southern Miss
C 49. East Carolina
C 68. UCF
C 77. UTEP
D 83. Rice
D 93. Memphis
D 99. Marshall
D 105. UAB
F 106. SMU
F 112. Tulane

MAC (1.08 GPA)
C 42. Central Michigan
C 57. Western Michigan
C 62. Ball State
C 70. Bowling Green
C 78. Ohio
C 80. Akron
D 82. Toledo
D 86. Northern Illinois
D 101. Miami (Ohio)
D 104. Buffalo
F 110. Eastern Michigan
F 111. Kent State
F 113. Temple

Sun Belt (0.89 GPA)
C 63. Troy
C 79. Arkansas State
D 87. Middle Tennessee
D 89. FAU
D 91. UL Lafayette
D 98. UL Monroe
F 115. FIU
F 119. North Texas
F 120. Western Kentucky

Longing For Omaha

June 13th and the start of the 2009 College World Series is rapidly approaching. Teams from around the nation are in the midst of conference play, positioning themselves for an invitation to the 64-team tournament field. Each hopes to be among the elite eight that make it to Omaha.

As with any year, there will be some programs making their first appearance in the tournament or one of just a handful in the program's history. The field will be dominated, however, by the usual suspects - those schools that have established themselves as perennial powers.

32 programs have appeared in the NCAA tournament 20 or more times. Texas leads the way with 52 appearances, followed by Florida State (46), Miami (37), USC (36), and Oklahoma State (36). 30 of those 32 programs have made at least one appearance at the College World Series. 23 of them have made 5 or more trips to Omaha.

Arguably the two most frustrated programs in the country are those that have made repeated trips to the tournament without yet knowing the thrill of playing in Omaha. They are South Alabama (24 appearances) and East Carolina (23 appearances).

At 15-20, South Alabama's chances of breaking the drought this year do not look good. East Carolina, on the other hand, is having yet another tournament-bound season. The Pirates are currently 27-10 (9-3 in C-USA) with notable wins over Oklahoma State, UCLA, UNC Wilmington, Elon, NC State, and Rice. However, the Pirates have also lost to Oklahoma State, UCLA, UNC Wilmington, and Rice. Additionally, top teams North Carolina and Georgia Southern can claim victories over ECU. In all, they are currently 7-8 against the RPI Top 100.

There is no doubt that ECU will make the NCAA tournament for the 24th time this season, likely as a 2-seed. It will take a notably strong run in the regular season's final weeks and in the conference tournament to claim a top seed. Doing so may be the most important element in helping the Diamond Bucs to break the drought as they would enjoy a significant home field advantage at Clark-LeClair stadium for at least the Regional round, and possibly through the Super Regionals.

---

The 32 programs to make 20+ appearances in the NCAA tournament are: Texas (52), Florida State (46), Miami (37), USC (36), Oklahoma State (36), Clemson (33), Arizona State (32), St. John's (31), Cal State Fullerton (30), Arizona (30), Oklahoma (30), Fresno State (30), Minnesota (28), Mississippi State (28), Stanford (28), Wichita State (26), Florida (24), Georgia Tech (24), Pepperdine (24), South Alabama (24), South Carolina (24), Texas A&M (24), East Carolina (23), North Carolina (23), LSU (22), NC State (22), Arkansas (21), Michigan (21), Northern Colorado (21), Missouri (20), and Oral Roberts (20).

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Championship Game

The following projected result for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament Championship Game uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Thus far in the tournament, predictions using this model have posted a 48-14 (77.4%) ledger, including a 2-0 mark in the Final Four round.

Michigan State over North Carolina, 77-71

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Final Four

The following projected results for the Final Four round of the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Michigan State over Connecticut, 72-67

North Carolina over Villanova, 77-76