2010 College Football Ranking Comparison

Kenneth Massey maintains a comparison of all the major college football rankings and rating systems. They are aggregated to provide a consensus ranking of all 120 teams at the FBS level.

Additionally, each team's high ranking, low ranking, mean ranking, median ranking, and standard deviation are provided. For each individual ranking system included in the comparison, the correlation to consensus (i.e. how much the rankings agree with everyone else) and the ranking violation (i.e. how many times did the lower ranked team win) are provided.

The ranking comparison includes rankings that result from:

• A human poll conducted by a major publication or group (e.g. the AP)
• An advanced computer rating.
• A mathematically based sequential rating (e.g. Elo's update formula)
• Publicly well-known systems (e.g. the RPI)

A preliminary version of the preseason comparison has been released at http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm, including the USA Today's Coaches Poll, Kenneth Massey's ranking system, James Howell's ranking system, and the Rogers Poll, among others. This comparison will be updated weekly throughout the season.

The Rogers Poll is the only system that ranks Nebraska #1 and has the consensus #1, Alabama, rated lower than anyone else (#9). The correlation to consensus among the Top 25 is low, but the correlation to consensus for all 120 teams is high.

The final rankings of the college basketball season painted a similar story. The correlation to consensus for the Rogers Poll among all teams was high, but the correlation to consensus among the Top 25 was low (35th of 37 rankings). However, the ranking violation (i.e. accuracy) of the Rogers Poll among the Top 25 was the best!

What does it mean? For the most part, all the major systems have a rough correlation to one another with regards to ranking every team from top to bottom. However, there can be significant disagreement among the top teams (where the most interest is). In this case, do not look for who most agrees with everyone else when you can look for who is the most accurate.

Last year, the Rogers Poll had eventual national champion and consensus #1 Alabama ranked higher than any other system in the preseason rankings (#4 in Rogers Poll, #7 consensus among 44 others).

See the complete Rogers Poll preseason ranking here.

CFL Prediction Tracker Available

Joe Kasulis maintains the CFL prediction tracker that documents the accuracy of 12 participating models with regards to picking straight up winners, picking against the spread, and accurately predicting game scores.

I will be hosting the prediction tracker report at: http://www.rogerspoll.com/kasulis/CFL_2010_Tracker.htm.

In the first week, the Rogers Poll predictions finished 2nd overall. I was 3-1 straight-up (best), 2-2 against the spread, and 43 total points off on spread across all 4 games.

Archived trackers for previous years are available at: http://www.nutshellsports.com/kasulis.html.

Rogers Poll Added To Stassen Preseason Tracker

Stassen.com has been measuring preseason consensus, prediction accuracy, and overrated/underrated teams based on major college football publications and end-of-season results since 1993. Notable publications that are tracked include Phil Steele, Athlon, The Sporting News, Lindy's, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and College Football News, among others.

Beginning with the 2010 season, the Rogers Poll has been added to this list. Head over to the 2010 consensus to see how my projected conference standings and national Top 25 compare to the others. Be sure to check back at the end of the season to see how the Rogers Poll fared with regards to accuracy.

Preseason College Football Poll Released

The preseason Rogers Poll for the 2010 college football season has been released. A surprise to many, Nebraska appears in the #1 spot. The Huskers are coming off a 10-win season that included a narrow loss to 2009 runner-up Texas in the Big XII Championship game and a blowout/shutout win over a good Arizona team in the Holiday Bowl.

Nebraska returns 15 starters and 59 letter winners in Bo Pelini's third season as the head coach. Pelini inherited a 5-7 team and has produced a 19-8 overall record in the past two years. With Oklahoma off the schedule, getting Texas at home, and facing no out-of-conference foe tougher than Washington, there is a very real chance of an undefeated season in Lincoln.

TCU, Oregon, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Boise State round out the preseason top ten.

To view projected conference champions and compare the Rogers Poll preseason rankings and projections to the other major publications, including Phil Steele, head over to Stassen.com.

For complete details, visit the main NCAA Football page.