2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the January 9th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 19-0 (6-0), Big East, SOS: 14
#2 Baylor, 17-0 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 93
#3 Duke, 15-2 (3-0), ACC, SOS: 1
#4 Kentucky, 17-1 (3-0), SEC, SOS: 100
#6 Creighton, 16-2 (6-1), MVC, SOS: 81
#9 Ohio State, 16-3 (4-2), Big Ten, SOS: 23
#11 Gonzaga, 14-3 (4-1), WCC, SOS: 16
#12 Murray State, 18-0 (6-0), OVC, SOS: 325
#20 New Mexico, 15-2 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 216
#22 Middle Tennessee, 17-2 (6-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 292
#23 Harvard, 15-2 (1-0), Ivy, SOS: 244
#28 Southern Miss, 16-3 (3-1), C-USA, SOS: 147
#29 California, 15-4 (5-1), Pac-12, SOS: 87
#32 Oral Roberts, 16-4 (8-0), Summit, SOS: 123
#37 Wagner, 14-3 (5-1), NEC, SOS: 228
#39 Iona, 14-4 (6-1), MAAC, SOS: 90
#46 Dayton, 13-5 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 18
#48 Nevada, 14-3 (4-0), WAC, SOS: 220
#60 Cleveland State, 15-4 (5-2), Horizon, SOS: 202
#61 Davidson, 12-4 (6-0), SOCON, SOS: 102
#63 Weber State, 14-3 (6-0), Big Sky, SOS: 299
#69 Ohio, 13-4 (1-2), MAC, SOS: 204
#70 VCU, 13-5 (4-2), CAA, SOS: 146
#88 Long Beach State, 12-6 (5-0), Big West, SOS: 118
#91 Lehigh, 14-5 (2-1), Patriot, SOS: 311
#95 Belmont, 12-6 (5-1), A-Sun, SOS: 152
#98 Texas-Arlington, 11-5 (4-0), Southland, SOS: 281
#99 Norfolk State, 13-5 (5-0), MEAC, SOS: 271
#108 Coastal Carolina, 13-4 (6-1), Big South, SOS: 342
#139 Albany, 12-7 (4-1), AEC, SOS: 314
#249 Texas Southern, 5-11 (4-0), SWAC, SOS: 19

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (21)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#5 Missouri, 16-1 (3-1), Big XII, SOS: 122
#7 Seton Hall, 15-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 6
#8 Connecticut, 14-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 5
#10 Michigan State, 15-3 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#13 Kansas, 14-3 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 21
#14 North Carolina, 15-3 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 56
#15 Indiana, 15-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 36
#16 Virginia, 14-2 (1-1), ACC, SOS: 134
#17 Illinois, 15-3 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 24
#19 Mississippi State, 15-3 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 95
#21 Georgetown, 14-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 59
#25 Alabama, 13-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 15
#27 Marquette, 14-4 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 30
#31 Vanderbilt, 13-4 (3-0), SEC, SOS: 27
#33 Louisville, 14-4 (2-3), Big East, SOS: 69
#35 West Virginia, 13-5 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 2
#36 Kansas State, 12-4 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 33
#40 Northwestern, 12-5 (2-3), Big Ten, SOS: 3
#41 Michigan, 14-4 (4-2), Big Ten, SOS: 77
#43 Wisconsin, 14-5 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 46
#44 Minnesota, 14-5 (2-4), Big Ten, SOS: 35

"BUBBLE" (26 teams for 16 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#18 St. Mary's, 17-2 (6-0), WCC, SOS: 195
#24 UNLV, 16-3 (0-1), Mountain West, SOS: 139
#26 Wichita State, 15-3 (6-1), MVC, SOS: 124
#30 San Diego State, 15-2 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 229
#34 Stanford, 15-3 (5-1), Pac-12, SOS: 167
#38 Denver, 14-4 (4-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 110
#42 Florida, 14-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 112
#45 Colorado State, 12-4 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 51
#47 Massachusetts, 14-4 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 136
#49 Marshall, 13-4 (4-0), C-USA, SOS: 80
#50 BYU, 15-4 (4-1), WCC, SOS: 157
#51 Memphis, 12-5 (3-0), C-USA, SOS: 12
#52 Oregon, 13-5 (4-2), Pac-12, SOS: 49
#53 Purdue, 13-5 (3-2), Big Ten, SOS: 34
#54 Arkansas, 13-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 131
#55 NC State, 13-5 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 31
#57 Xavier, 12-5 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 26
#58 Texas, 12-5 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 65
#62 Temple, 11-5 (1-2), A-10, SOS: 9
#64 Iowa State, 12-5 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 38
#65 UCF, 13-4 (3-1), C-USA, SOS: 170
#66 Oklahoma, 11-5 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 55
#67 Maryland, 12-4 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 138
#68 Florida State, 11-6 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 8
#72 Wyoming, 14-3 (0-1), Mountain West, SOS: 331
#96 Notre Dame, 11-7 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 54

"MIRACLE WATCH" (33) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#56 St. Louis, 14-4 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 156
#59 Cincinnati, 14-4 (4-1), Big East, SOS: 184
#71 Northern Iowa, 13-6 (3-4), MVC, SOS: 37
#73 St. Joseph's, 12-6 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 28
#74 Arizona, 12-6 (3-2), Pac-12, SOS: 43
#75 New Mexico State, 13-5 (3-0), WAC, SOS: 142
#76 College of Charleston, 12-5 (4-2), SOCON, SOS: 119
#77 La Salle, 13-5 (2-1), A-10, SOS: 171
#78 North Dakota State, 13-4 (6-2), Summit, SOS: 270
#79 Kent State, 12-4 (2-1), MAC, SOS: 246
#80 South Dakota State, 15-5 (7-1), Summit, SOS: 226
#81 George Mason, 13-5 (5-1), CAA, SOS: 231
#82 Drexel, 12-5 (4-2), CAA, SOS: 189
#83 LSU, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 68
#84 Washington, 11-6 (4-1), Pac-12, SOS: 74
#85 Georgia State, 13-4 (5-1), CAA, SOS: 328
#87 Ole Miss, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 42
#89 Miami, 9-6 (0-2), ACC, SOS: 10
#90 Virginia Tech, 11-6 (0-3), ACC, SOS: 86
#97 Pittsburgh, 11-7 (0-5), Big East, SOS: 70
#104 Providence, 12-7 (1-5), Big East, SOS: 113
#107 Charlotte, 9-7 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 40
#109 Auburn, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 154
#111 Iowa, 11-8 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 39
#116 Wake Forest, 10-7 (1-2), ACC, SOS: 62
#127 Georgia, 9-8 (0-3), SEC, SOS: 25
#130 DePaul, 10-7 (1-4), Big East, SOS: 145
#131 Texas A&M, 10-6 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 230
#133 Rutgers, 10-8 (2-3), Big East, SOS: 97
#135 Nebraska, 9-8 (1-5), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#136 South Florida, 10-8 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 71
#141 Oklahoma State, 9-8 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 48
#147 Clemson, 9-8 (1-2), ACC, SOS: 135

2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the January 9th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 17-0 (4-0), Big East, SOS: 12
#2 Baylor, 15-0 (2-0), Big XII, SOS: 120
#3 Indiana, 15-1 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 52
#4 Kentucky, 15-1 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 79
#5 Duke, 13-2 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 2
#10 Gonzaga, 13-2 (3-0), WCC, SOS: 23
#14 Murray State, 16-0 (4-0), OVC, SOS: 324
#15 Creighton, 13-2 (3-1), MVC, SOS: 95
#21 UNLV, 16-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 169
#23 Southern Miss, 15-2 (2-0), C-USA, SOS: 153
#27 Denver, 13-3 (3-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 115
#30 Harvard, 13-2 (1-0), Ivy, SOS: 236
#32 Iona, 13-3 (5-0), MAAC, SOS: 111
#33 Dayton, 12-4 (2-0), A-10, SOS: 9
#35 California, 13-4 (3-1), Pac-12, SOS: 66
#42 Oral Roberts, 14-4 (6-0), Summit, SOS: 110
#44 Wagner, 12-3 (3-1), NEC, SOS: 189
#48 Cleveland State, 14-3 (4-1), Horizon, SOS: 220
#53 College of Charleston, 11-4 (3-1), SOCON, SOS: 72
#58 Ohio, 12-3 (0-1), MAC, SOS: 196
#61 Nevada, 12-3 (2-0), WAC, SOS: 224
#75 Weber State, 12-3 (4-0), Big Sky, SOS: 320
#78 George Mason, 12-4 (4-0), CAA, SOS: 262
#92 Long Beach State, 10-6 (3-0), Big West, SOS: 31
#97 Lamar, 11-5 (2-0), Southland, SOS: 184
#101 Lehigh, 12-5 (0-1), Patriot, SOS: 306
#102 Belmont, 11-6 (4-1), A-Sun, SOS: 152
#112 Norfolk State, 11-5 (3-0), MEAC, SOS: 217
#124 Coastal Carolina, 11-4 (4-1), Big South, SOS: 341
#161 Maine, 8-5 (2-0), AEC, SOS: 331
#252 Texas Southern, 4-11 (3-0), SWAC, SOS: 4

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (22)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#6 Seton Hall, 14-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 5
#7 Michigan State, 14-2 (3-0), Big Ten, SOS: 21
#8 Ohio State, 15-2 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 42
#9 Missouri, 14-1 (1-1), Big XII, SOS: 161
#11 Virginia, 14-1 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 178
#12 North Carolina, 14-2 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 80
#13 Kansas State, 12-2 (1-1), Big XII, SOS: 65
#16 Connecticut, 12-3 (2-2), Big East, SOS: 7
#17 Georgetown, 13-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 69
#18 Kansas, 12-3 (2-0), Big XII, SOS: 15
#19 Alabama, 12-3 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 19
#20 Illinois, 14-3 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 29
#22 Louisville, 13-3 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 41
#24 West Virginia, 12-4 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 3
#26 Mississippi State, 13-3 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 114
#29 Michigan, 13-3 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 83
#31 Iowa State, 12-3 (2-0), Big XII, SOS: 97
#36 Purdue, 13-4 (3-1), Big Ten, SOS: 35
#38 Marquette, 12-4 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 25
#39 Northwestern, 11-4 (1-2), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#43 NC State, 12-4 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 28
#45 Vanderbilt, 11-4 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 17

"BUBBLE" (23 teams for 15 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#25 St. Mary's, 14-2 (3-0), WCC, SOS: 212
#28 New Mexico, 14-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 254
#34 Middle Tennessee, 15-2 (4-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 303
#37 Wichita State, 12-3 (3-1), MVC, SOS: 118
#40 San Diego State, 13-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 252
#41 Stanford, 13-3 (3-1), Pac-12, SOS: 159
#46 Northern Iowa, 12-4 (2-2), MVC, SOS: 44
#47 Arkansas, 12-3 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 162
#49 St. Louis, 13-3 (1-1), A-10, SOS: 208
#50 Temple, 10-4 (0-1), A-10, SOS: 11
#51 Texas, 11-4 (1-1), Big XII, SOS: 98
#52 Florida, 12-4 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 104
#54 UCF, 12-3 (2-0), C-USA, SOS: 229
#55 Oklahoma, 10-4 (0-2), Big XII, SOS: 63
#56 Virginia Tech, 11-4 (0-1), ACC, SOS: 73
#59 Colorado State, 10-4 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 45
#60 Wyoming, 13-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 339
#62 LSU, 11-4 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 109
#63 Wisconsin, 12-5 (1-3), Big Ten, SOS: 53
#65 Marshall, 11-4 (2-0), C-USA, SOS: 87
#66 Memphis, 10-5 (1-0), C-USA, SOS: 8
#67 Arizona, 11-5 (2-1), Pac-12, SOS: 48
#68 Massachusetts, 12-4 (1-1), A-10, SOS: 163

"MIRACLE WATCH" (39) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#57 BYU, 14-4 (3-1), WCC, SOS: 164
#64 Minnesota, 12-5 (0-4), Big Ten, SOS: 34
#69 St. Joseph's, 11-5 (1-1), A-10, SOS: 30
#70 Oregon, 11-5 (2-2), Pac-12, SOS: 54
#71 Xavier, 10-5 (1-1), A-10, SOS: 18
#72 Davidson, 10-4 (4-0), SOCON, SOS: 85
#73 Cincinnati, 12-4 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 219
#74 La Salle, 12-4 (2-0), A-10, SOS: 230
#76 Pittsburgh, 11-5 (0-3), Big East, SOS: 89
#77 Illinois State, 11-4 (3-1), MVC, SOS: 188
#79 Maryland, 10-4 (0-1), ACC, SOS: 131
#80 Miami, 9-5 (0-1), ACC, SOS: 20
#81 North Dakota State, 11-4 (4-2), Summit, SOS: 243
#82 Robert Morris, 12-5 (3-1), NEC, SOS: 157
#83 VCU, 11-5 (2-2), CAA, SOS: 134
#84 Colorado, 11-4 (3-0), Pac-12, SOS: 177
#85 Ole Miss, 10-5 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 37
#89 Wake Forest, 10-5 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 71
#93 Florida State, 9-6 (0-1), ACC, SOS: 26
#94 Notre Dame, 10-6 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 57
#96 Missouri State, 10-6 (3-1), MVC, SOS: 47
#98 Washington, 9-6 (3-1), Pac-12, SOS: 32
#107 Georgia, 9-6 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 56
#108 Providence, 11-6 (0-4), Big East, SOS: 158
#111 Auburn, 10-5 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 211
#113 DePaul, 10-5 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 234
#115 Iowa, 10-7 (2-2), Big Ten, SOS: 75
#120 Clemson, 9-6 (1-0), ACC, SOS: 165
#131 Texas A&M, 9-5 (0-2), Big XII, SOS: 284
#135 Nebraska, 8-7 (0-4), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#137 South Florida, 9-7 (2-1), Big East, SOS: 92
#138 Rutgers, 9-7 (1-2), Big East, SOS: 122
#139 Penn State, 9-8 (1-3), Big Ten, SOS: 58
#142 Villanova, 8-8 (1-3), Big East, SOS: 16
#146 Oklahoma State, 8-7 (1-1), Big XII, SOS: 62
#149 St. John's, 8-7 (2-2), Big East, SOS: 90
#150 South Carolina, 8-7 (0-1), SEC, SOS: 106
#171 Tennessee, 8-7 (1-0), SEC, SOS: 176
#183 Texas Tech, 7-7 (0-2), Big XII, SOS: 142

2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the January 2nd Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 15-0 (2-0), Big East, SOS: 16
#2 Duke, 12-1 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 10
#4 Baylor, 13-0 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 147
#5 Kentucky, 13-1 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 64
#7 Indiana, 13-1 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 93
#9 Gonzaga, 11-2 (1-0), WCC, SOS: 15
#16 Harvard, 12-1 (0-0), Ivy, SOS: 179
#18 Creighton, 11-2 (1-1), MVC, SOS: 55
#19 Murray State, 14-0 (2-0), OVC, SOS: 324
#23 Ohio, 12-1 (0-0), MAC, SOS: 229
#24 UNLV, 15-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 171
#31 California, 12-3 (2-0), Pac-12, SOS: 97
#33 Southern Miss, 13-2 (0-0), C-USA, SOS: 198
#39 Middle Tennessee, 13-2 (2-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 292
#40 St. Louis, 12-2 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 256
#41 Wagner, 10-3 (1-1), NEC, SOS: 83
#47 College of Charleston, 10-3 (2-0), SOCON, SOS: 74
#49 Iona, 10-3 (2-0), MAAC, SOS: 68
#54 Cleveland State, 12-3 (2-1), Horizon, SOS: 174
#60 VCU, 10-3 (1-0), CAA, SOS: 155
#63 Oral Roberts, 11-4 (3-0), Summit, SOS: 111
#81 Nevada, 10-3 (0-0), WAC, SOS: 246
#91 Weber State, 10-3 (2-0), Big Sky, SOS: 326
#92 Lehigh, 11-4 (0-0), Patriot, SOS: 299
#99 Belmont, 9-5 (2-0), A-Sun, SOS: 125
#104 Lamar, 9-5 (0-0), Southland, SOS: 105
#113 Norfolk State, 10-5 (2-0), MEAC, SOS: 182
#115 Long Beach State, 7-6 (0-0), Big West, SOS: 6
#127 Coastal Carolina, 10-3 (3-0), Big South, SOS: 343
#163 Albany, 8-6 (0-0), AEC, SOS: 290
#297 Prairie View A&M, 4-9 (0-0), SWAC, SOS: 218

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (24)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#3 Connecticut, 12-1 (2-0), Big East, SOS: 28
#6 Missouri, 13-0 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 264
#8 Kansas State, 11-1 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 151
#10 North Carolina, 13-2 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 56
#11 Seton Hall, 12-2 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 17
#12 Ohio State, 13-2 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 44
#13 Michigan State, 13-2 (2-0), Big Ten, SOS: 43
#14 Georgetown, 12-1 (2-0), Big East, SOS: 132
#15 Louisville, 12-2 (0-1), Big East, SOS: 36
#17 Virginia, 12-1 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 234
#20 Mississippi State, 13-2 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 143
#21 Marquette, 12-2 (1-0), Big East, SOS: 81
#22 Oklahoma, 10-2 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 114
#25 Minnesota, 12-3 (0-2), Big Ten, SOS: 42
#26 Alabama, 10-3 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 18
#27 Illinois, 12-3 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 46
#28 Michigan, 12-2 (2-0), Big Ten, SOS: 159
#35 Wisconsin, 12-3 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 82
#36 Purdue, 12-3 (2-0), Big Ten, SOS: 66
#37 Northwestern, 11-3 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 51
#38 Kansas, 10-3 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 54
#42 Florida, 11-3 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 96
#43 Virginia Tech, 11-3 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 87
#46 West Virginia, 10-4 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 9

"BUBBLE" (25 teams for 13 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#29 New Mexico, 12-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 193
#30 St. Mary's, 13-2 (2-0), WCC, SOS: 194
#32 Stanford, 12-2 (2-0), Pac-12, SOS: 201
#34 San Diego State, 12-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 177
#44 Denver, 11-3 (1-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 139
#45 Texas, 10-3 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 131
#48 Wichita State, 10-3 (1-1), MVC, SOS: 72
#50 Temple, 9-3 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 52
#51 LSU, 10-3 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 129
#52 Dayton, 10-4 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 26
#53 Iowa State, 10-3 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 126
#55 Arizona, 10-4 (1-0), Pac-12, SOS: 37
#56 Vanderbilt, 9-4 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 8
#57 NC State, 10-4 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 22
#58 Massachusetts, 11-3 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 188
#59 St. Joseph's, 10-4 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 35
#61 Cincinnati, 11-3 (1-0), Big East, SOS: 227
#62 Northern Iowa, 10-4 (0-2), MVC, SOS: 41
#64 Kent State, 9-3 (0-0), MAC, SOS: 158
#65 Arkansas, 10-3 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 186
#66 Oregon, 10-4 (1-1), Pac-12, SOS: 84
#67 Pittsburgh, 11-4 (0-2), Big East, SOS: 116
#68 Xavier, 9-4 (0-0), A-10, SOS: 29
#70 Wyoming, 12-2 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 337
#80 Tulane, 12-2 (0-0), C-USA, SOS: 344

"MIRACLE WATCH" (35) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#69 Colorado State, 9-4 (0-0), Mountain West, SOS: 33
#71 Loyola (MD), 9-3 (2-0), MAAC, SOS: 189
#72 Indiana State, 10-3 (1-1), MVC, SOS: 202
#73 North Dakota State, 10-3 (3-1), Summit, SOS: 272
#74 BYU, 12-4 (1-1), WCC, SOS: 183
#75 Maryland, 9-3 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 172
#76 Miami, 8-4 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 30
#77 UCF, 10-3 (0-0), C-USA, SOS: 255
#78 Ole Miss, 9-4 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 59
#79 Memphis, 8-5 (0-0), C-USA, SOS: 5
#82 Marshall, 9-4 (0-0), C-USA, SOS: 91
#83 Wake Forest, 9-4 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 89
#84 Florida State, 8-5 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 19
#85 South Dakota State, 12-4 (4-0), Summit, SOS: 231
#87 Davidson, 8-4 (2-0), SOCON, SOS: 49
#88 Providence, 11-4 (0-2), Big East, SOS: 263
#89 Auburn, 9-3 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 297
#90 Washington, 8-5 (2-0), Pac-12, SOS: 31
#94 Georgia, 9-5 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 73
#95 Notre Dame, 9-5 (1-0), Big East, SOS: 102
#102 DePaul, 9-4 (0-1), Big East, SOS: 253
#103 Texas A&M, 9-3 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 335
#111 Nebraska, 8-5 (0-2), Big Ten, SOS: 69
#123 Iowa, 9-6 (1-1), Big Ten, SOS: 122
#139 Villanova, 7-7 (0-2), Big East, SOS: 21
#140 Georgia Tech, 7-6 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 94
#142 Clemson, 8-6 (0-0), ACC, SOS: 217
#143 South Carolina, 7-6 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 100
#144 Texas Tech, 7-5 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 207
#145 Oklahoma State, 7-6 (0-0), Big XII, SOS: 57
#148 Rutgers, 8-6 (0-1), Big East, SOS: 212
#153 Penn State, 8-7 (0-2), Big Ten, SOS: 110
#155 St. John's, 7-6 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 149
#158 South Florida, 8-7 (1-1), Big East, SOS: 98
#203 Tennessee, 6-6 (0-0), SEC, SOS: 259

NCAA Basketball 2011-2012 Season

The Connecticut Huskies will defend their NCAA national championship while the Kansas Jayhawks will defend their 2-time Rogers Poll championship in the 2011-12 campaign. The first Rogers Poll for the season will be released on January 2nd.

The poll will be released every Monday from then through the conclusion of conference tournaments. There will be a poll release prior to the Sweet Sixteen, prior to the Final Four, and then the final poll of the season will be released once the NCAA tournament is complete.

Conference Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule Rankings will be released concurrently with the Rogers Poll throughout the season. Tournament Watches will be provided every week beginning in January as well.

In preparation for the upcoming poll, below is a list of Division I membership changes for the 2011-12 season:

• Nebraska joins the Big Ten, leaving the Big XII
• Colorado joins the Pac-12, leaving the Big XII
  
• Utah joins the Pac-12, leaving the Mountain West
  
• BYU joins the WCC, leaving the Mountain West
• Boise State joins the Mountain West, leaving the WAC
  
• Campbell joins the Big South, leaving the A-Sun
• South Dakota joins the Summit, leaving the Great West
• NC Central and Savannah State join the MEAC, leaving the Independents
• Centenary drops from the Division I ranks, leaving the Summit
• Nebraska Omaha joins the Division I ranks as an Independent
  

The relatively new Great West conference will not receive an automatic bid to the NCAA basketball tournament. It will, however, receive an auto-bid to the CIT postseason tournament.

Check out the final rankings for the 2010-11 season here.