2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the February 13th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 25-1 (12-1), Big East, SOS: 37
#2 Kentucky, 25-1 (11-0), SEC, SOS: 63
#3 Missouri, 23-2 (10-2), Big XII, SOS: 74
#4 Duke, 21-4 (8-2), ACC, SOS: 2
#6 Ohio State, 21-4 (9-3), Big Ten, SOS: 32
#10 Gonzaga, 20-4 (10-2), WCC, SOS: 72
#11 Wichita State, 22-4 (13-2), MVC, SOS: 94
#13 Murray State, 24-1 (11-1), OVC, SOS: 326
#15 UNLV, 22-4 (6-2), Mountain West, SOS: 102
#17 Harvard, 21-3 (7-1), Ivy, SOS: 215
#18 Southern Miss, 21-4 (8-2), C-USA, SOS: 104
#20 Temple, 19-5 (8-2), A-10, SOS: 53
#22 Middle Tennessee, 23-4 (12-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 186
#28 Oral Roberts, 23-5 (15-1), Summit, SOS: 148
#30 Wagner, 21-4 (12-2), NEC, SOS: 236
#31 California, 20-6 (10-3), Pac-12, SOS: 86
#33 Nevada, 21-4 (10-1), WAC, SOS: 217
#38 VCU, 22-5 (13-2), CAA, SOS: 231
#42 Iona, 20-6 (12-3), MAAC, SOS: 152
#44 Weber State, 20-4 (12-1), Big Sky, SOS: 318
#46 Long Beach State, 19-6 (12-0), Big West, SOS: 157
#50 Cleveland State, 20-6 (10-4), Horizon, SOS: 192
#52 Davidson, 19-6 (13-2), SOCON, SOS: 185
#53 Bucknell, 20-6 (10-0), Patriot, SOS: 221
#56 Texas-Arlington, 19-5 (11-0), Southland, SOS: 309
#59 Akron, 18-7 (10-1), MAC, SOS: 128
#65 Belmont, 19-7 (11-2), A-Sun, SOS: 183
#95 UNC Asheville, 19-7 (14-1), Big South, SOS: 305
#111 Norfolk State, 18-8 (10-2), MEAC, SOS: 304
#118 Stony Brook, 17-8 (12-2), AEC, SOS: 332
#169 Mississippi Valley State, 13-11 (12-0), SWAC, SOS: 203

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (23)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#5 North Carolina, 21-4 (8-2), ACC, SOS: 15
#7 Michigan State, 20-5 (9-3), Big Ten, SOS: 7
#8 Kansas, 20-5 (10-2), Big XII, SOS: 6
#9 Baylor, 21-4 (8-4), Big XII, SOS: 40
#12 Marquette, 21-5 (10-3), Big East, SOS: 36
#14 St. Mary's, 23-3 (12-1), WCC, SOS: 200
#16 Louisville, 20-5 (8-4), Big East, SOS: 49
#21 Creighton, 21-5 (11-4), MVC, SOS: 82
#23 Georgetown, 19-5 (9-4), Big East, SOS: 46
#24 Indiana, 19-6 (7-6), Big Ten, SOS: 28
#25 Wisconsin, 19-6 (8-4), Big Ten, SOS: 29
#26 Virginia, 19-5 (6-4), ACC, SOS: 88
#27 St. Louis, 20-5 (8-3), A-10, SOS: 93
#32 Florida, 19-6 (7-3), SEC, SOS: 59
#34 Memphis, 18-7 (8-2), C-USA, SOS: 16
#35 Mississippi State, 19-6 (6-4), SEC, SOS: 73
#36 Michigan, 19-7 (9-4), Big Ten, SOS: 26
#37 Florida State, 17-7 (8-2), ACC, SOS: 22
#40 Vanderbilt, 17-8 (6-4), SEC, SOS: 4
#43 Iowa State, 18-7 (8-4), Big XII, SOS: 62
#45 NC State, 18-7 (7-3), ACC, SOS: 61
#47 Kansas State, 17-7 (6-6), Big XII, SOS: 70
#49 Seton Hall, 17-8 (6-7), Big East, SOS: 17

"BUBBLE" (17 teams for 14 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#19 New Mexico, 20-4 (6-2), Mountain West, SOS: 137
#29 San Diego State, 20-4 (6-2), Mountain West, SOS: 134
#41 BYU, 21-6 (9-3), WCC, SOS: 147
#48 Oregon, 18-7 (9-4), Pac-12, SOS: 91
#51 Notre Dame, 17-8 (9-3), Big East, SOS: 23
#54 Alabama, 16-8 (5-5), SEC, SOS: 14
#57 Arizona, 18-8 (9-4), Pac-12, SOS: 76
#58 Connecticut, 15-9 (5-7), Big East, SOS: 1
#60 Massachusetts, 18-7 (7-4), A-10, SOS: 127
#61 Texas, 16-9 (6-6), Big XII, SOS: 11
#63 Washington, 17-8 (10-3), Pac-12, SOS: 64
#66 Minnesota, 17-8 (5-7), Big Ten, SOS: 58
#68 Miami, 15-8 (6-4), ACC, SOS: 18
#74 Arkansas, 17-8 (5-5), SEC, SOS: 75
#77 Purdue, 16-9 (6-6), Big Ten, SOS: 19
#81 Cincinnati, 17-8 (7-5), Big East, SOS: 105
#94 Ole Miss, 15-9 (5-5), SEC, SOS: 45

"MIRACLE WATCH" (34) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#39 Drexel, 21-5 (13-2), CAA, SOS: 254
#55 George Mason, 21-6 (13-2), CAA, SOS: 258
#62 Loyola (MD), 19-6 (12-3), MAAC, SOS: 220
#64 Wyoming, 18-6 (4-4), Mountain West, SOS: 187
#67 Kent State, 18-6 (8-3), MAC, SOS: 228
#69 Ohio, 19-6 (7-4), MAC, SOS: 253
#70 Colorado State, 15-8 (4-4), Mountain West, SOS: 33
#71 UCF, 18-7 (7-4), C-USA, SOS: 140
#72 Northwestern, 15-9 (5-7), Big Ten, SOS: 8
#73 South Dakota State, 20-7 (12-3), Summit, SOS: 208
#75 Mercer, 20-7 (12-2), A-Sun, SOS: 244
#76 Illinois, 16-9 (5-7), Big Ten, SOS: 10
#78 Buffalo, 16-6 (9-2), MAC, SOS: 195
#79 Montana, 19-6 (12-1), Big Sky, SOS: 286
#80 Denver, 18-8 (8-5), Sun Belt, SOS: 160
#82 New Mexico State, 18-8 (7-3), WAC, SOS: 133
#83 West Virginia, 16-10 (6-7), Big East, SOS: 5
#84 Long Island, 19-7 (13-1), NEC, SOS: 256
#85 Xavier, 16-9 (7-4), A-10, SOS: 43
#86 St. Joseph's, 16-10 (6-5), A-10, SOS: 21
#89 Dayton, 15-9 (5-5), A-10, SOS: 50
#97 Pittsburgh, 15-11 (4-9), Big East, SOS: 24
#99 LSU, 14-10 (4-6), SEC, SOS: 38
#102 South Florida, 15-10 (8-4), Big East, SOS: 54
#106 Maryland, 14-10 (4-6), ACC, SOS: 44
#115 Oklahoma, 13-11 (3-9), Big XII, SOS: 35
#117 Virginia Tech, 14-11 (3-7), ACC, SOS: 51
#133 Georgia, 12-12 (3-7), SEC, SOS: 9
#134 Tennessee, 13-12 (5-5), SEC, SOS: 48
#138 Iowa, 13-12 (5-7), Big Ten, SOS: 57
#141 Auburn, 13-12 (3-8), SEC, SOS: 68
#160 Providence, 13-13 (2-11), Big East, SOS: 90
#164 Clemson, 12-12 (4-6), ACC, SOS: 112
#167 Texas A&M, 12-12 (3-9), Big XII, SOS: 81

2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the February 6th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 23-1 (10-1), Big East, SOS: 35
#2 Kentucky, 23-1 (9-0), SEC, SOS: 79
#3 Baylor, 21-2 (8-2), Big XII, SOS: 62
#5 North Carolina, 20-3 (7-1), ACC, SOS: 38
#6 Ohio State, 20-3 (8-2), Big Ten, SOS: 39
#8 Murray State, 23-0 (10-0), OVC, SOS: 330
#9 Creighton, 21-3 (11-2), MVC, SOS: 87
#10 St. Mary's, 22-2 (11-0), WCC, SOS: 211
#11 Southern Miss, 20-3 (7-1), C-USA, SOS: 100
#13 Harvard, 20-2 (6-0), Ivy, SOS: 249
#17 UNLV, 21-4 (5-2), Mountain West, SOS: 104
#25 Middle Tennessee, 21-4 (10-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 182
#28 Temple, 17-5 (6-2), A-10, SOS: 51
#30 Oral Roberts, 21-5 (13-1), Summit, SOS: 141
#32 Wagner, 19-4 (10-2), NEC, SOS: 205
#33 Cleveland State, 20-4 (10-2), Horizon, SOS: 222
#34 California, 18-6 (8-3), Pac-12, SOS: 77
#36 Iona, 19-5 (11-2), MAAC, SOS: 167
#37 Nevada, 19-4 (8-1), WAC, SOS: 219
#40 Ohio, 19-4 (7-2), MAC, SOS: 242
#45 VCU, 20-5 (11-2), CAA, SOS: 221
#49 Davidson, 17-5 (11-1), SOCON, SOS: 177
#54 Weber State, 18-4 (10-1), Big Sky, SOS: 312
#55 Long Beach State, 17-6 (10-0), Big West, SOS: 128
#65 Bucknell, 18-6 (8-0), Patriot, SOS: 208
#70 Texas-Arlington, 17-5 (9-0), Southland, SOS: 298
#82 Belmont, 17-7 (10-2), A-Sun, SOS: 183
#98 Coastal Carolina, 17-5 (10-2), Big South, SOS: 342
#119 Stony Brook, 15-7 (10-1), AEC, SOS: 332
#120 Norfolk State, 16-8 (8-2), MEAC, SOS: 286
#176 Mississippi Valley State, 11-11 (10-0), SWAC, SOS: 148

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (21)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#4 Missouri, 21-2 (8-2), Big XII, SOS: 83
#7 Duke, 19-4 (6-2), ACC, SOS: 2
#12 Michigan State, 18-5 (7-3), Big Ten, SOS: 9
#14 Kansas, 18-5 (8-2), Big XII, SOS: 6
#15 Florida, 19-4 (7-1), SEC, SOS: 73
#16 Gonzaga, 18-4 (8-2), WCC, SOS: 78
#18 Marquette, 19-5 (8-3), Big East, SOS: 33
#19 Georgetown, 18-4 (8-3), Big East, SOS: 60
#22 Virginia, 18-4 (5-3), ACC, SOS: 101
#23 Louisville, 18-5 (6-4), Big East, SOS: 47
#26 Mississippi State, 18-5 (5-3), SEC, SOS: 69
#27 Wisconsin, 18-6 (7-4), Big Ten, SOS: 25
#29 Indiana, 18-6 (6-6), Big Ten, SOS: 28
#31 Florida State, 16-6 (7-1), ACC, SOS: 11
#38 Vanderbilt, 16-7 (5-3), SEC, SOS: 7
#39 Iowa State, 17-6 (7-3), Big XII, SOS: 55
#42 Kansas State, 16-6 (5-5), Big XII, SOS: 67
#43 Connecticut, 15-7 (5-5), Big East, SOS: 4
#46 Michigan, 17-7 (7-4), Big Ten, SOS: 18
#48 Alabama, 15-7 (4-4), SEC, SOS: 14
#50 West Virginia, 16-8 (6-5), Big East, SOS: 3

"BUBBLE" (20 teams for 16 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#20 Wichita State, 20-4 (11-2), MVC, SOS: 105
#21 San Diego State, 20-3 (6-1), Mountain West, SOS: 150
#24 New Mexico, 19-4 (5-2), Mountain West, SOS: 144
#35 St. Louis, 18-5 (6-3), A-10, SOS: 106
#41 Memphis, 16-7 (6-2), C-USA, SOS: 10
#44 BYU, 20-6 (8-3), WCC, SOS: 129
#51 Illinois, 16-7 (5-5), Big Ten, SOS: 24
#52 Minnesota, 17-7 (5-6), Big Ten, SOS: 53
#53 NC State, 17-7 (6-3), ACC, SOS: 57
#57 Colorado State, 15-7 (4-3), Mountain West, SOS: 29
#60 Washington, 16-7 (9-2), Pac-12, SOS: 76
#61 Arkansas, 16-7 (4-4), SEC, SOS: 68
#63 Arizona, 16-8 (7-4), Pac-12, SOS: 54
#66 Miami, 14-7 (5-3), ACC, SOS: 20
#67 Northwestern, 14-8 (4-6), Big Ten, SOS: 5
#68 Oregon, 16-7 (7-4), Pac-12, SOS: 88
#75 Notre Dame, 15-8 (7-3), Big East, SOS: 21
#76 Cincinnati, 16-7 (6-4), Big East, SOS: 110
#77 Purdue, 15-8 (5-5), Big Ten, SOS: 32
#91 Ole Miss, 14-8 (4-4), SEC, SOS: 43

"MIRACLE WATCH" (34) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#47 Drexel, 19-5 (11-2), CAA, SOS: 251
#56 Massachusetts, 17-6 (6-3), A-10, SOS: 138
#58 Wyoming, 18-5 (4-3), Mountain West, SOS: 225
#59 Loyola (MD), 18-5 (11-2), MAAC, SOS: 257
#62 South Dakota State, 19-6 (11-2), Summit, SOS: 189
#64 Seton Hall, 15-8 (4-7), Big East, SOS: 8
#69 George Mason, 19-6 (11-2), CAA, SOS: 256
#71 Denver, 17-7 (7-4), Sun Belt, SOS: 147
#72 Akron, 16-7 (8-1), MAC, SOS: 99
#73 UCF, 17-6 (6-3), C-USA, SOS: 162
#74 La Salle, 17-7 (6-3), A-10, SOS: 127
#78 Xavier, 15-8 (6-3), A-10, SOS: 37
#79 New Mexico State, 17-7 (6-2), WAC, SOS: 146
#80 Kent State, 16-6 (6-3), MAC, SOS: 215
#81 Stanford, 16-7 (6-5), Pac-12, SOS: 116
#83 Texas, 14-9 (4-6), Big XII, SOS: 12
#84 St. Joseph's, 15-9 (5-4), A-10, SOS: 17
#85 Mercer, 18-7 (10-2), A-Sun, SOS: 228
#86 Pittsburgh, 15-9 (4-7), Big East, SOS: 22
#94 Dayton, 14-9 (4-5), A-10, SOS: 31
#97 Oklahoma, 13-9 (3-7), Big XII, SOS: 26
#101 LSU, 13-9 (3-5), SEC, SOS: 36
#102 Marshall, 14-9 (5-4), C-USA, SOS: 46
#109 Maryland, 13-9 (3-5), ACC, SOS: 48
#113 Virginia Tech, 13-10 (2-6), ACC, SOS: 44
#118 South Florida, 13-10 (6-4), Big East, SOS: 50
#125 Auburn, 13-10 (3-6), SEC, SOS: 90
#127 Iowa, 13-11 (5-6), Big Ten, SOS: 56
#133 Providence, 13-11 (2-9), Big East, SOS: 91
#138 Texas A&M, 12-10 (3-7), Big XII, SOS: 94
#139 Nebraska, 11-11 (3-8), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#142 Rutgers, 12-12 (4-7), Big East, SOS: 63
#156 Clemson, 11-11 (3-5), ACC, SOS: 107
#171 DePaul, 11-11 (2-8), Big East, SOS: 121

2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the January 30th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 22-1 (9-1), Big East, SOS: 18
#2 Kentucky, 21-1 (7-0), SEC, SOS: 76
#3 Duke, 18-3 (5-1), ACC, SOS: 2
#4 Baylor, 19-2 (6-2), Big XII, SOS: 50
#7 Creighton, 20-2 (10-1), MVC, SOS: 93
#8 Ohio State, 19-3 (7-2), Big Ten, SOS: 44
#9 Murray State, 21-0 (8-0), OVC, SOS: 323
#12 St. Mary's, 21-2 (10-0), WCC, SOS: 197
#15 UNLV, 20-3 (4-1), Mountain West, SOS: 116
#16 Southern Miss, 19-3 (6-1), C-USA, SOS: 124
#17 Harvard, 18-2 (4-0), Ivy, SOS: 249
#21 Middle Tennessee, 20-3 (9-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 215
#24 Oral Roberts, 20-4 (12-0), Summit, SOS: 160
#28 California, 17-5 (7-2), Pac-12, SOS: 66
#31 Temple, 15-5 (4-2), A-10, SOS: 17
#32 Nevada, 18-3 (7-0), WAC, SOS: 233
#35 Cleveland State, 18-4 (8-2), Horizon, SOS: 180
#37 Wagner, 17-4 (8-2), NEC, SOS: 209
#40 Ohio, 17-4 (5-2), MAC, SOS: 199
#44 Iona, 17-5 (9-2), MAAC, SOS: 151
#49 VCU, 18-5 (9-2), CAA, SOS: 200
#58 Long Beach State, 16-6 (9-0), Big West, SOS: 109
#60 Davidson, 15-5 (9-1), SOCON, SOS: 165
#64 Weber State, 16-4 (8-1), Big Sky, SOS: 304
#68 Bucknell, 17-6 (7-0), Patriot, SOS: 191
#77 Texas-Arlington, 15-5 (7-0), Southland, SOS: 299
#86 Belmont, 15-7 (8-2), A-Sun, SOS: 184
#94 Norfolk State, 16-6 (8-0), MEAC, SOS: 284
#105 Coastal Carolina, 16-5 (9-2), Big South, SOS: 342
#133 Stony Brook, 13-7 (8-1), AEC, SOS: 324
#195 Mississippi Valley State, 9-11 (8-0), SWAC, SOS: 103

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (22)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#5 Missouri, 19-2 (6-2), Big XII, SOS: 98
#6 North Carolina, 18-3 (5-1), ACC, SOS: 43
#10 Michigan State, 17-4 (6-2), Big Ten, SOS: 8
#11 Kansas, 17-4 (7-1), Big XII, SOS: 6
#13 Gonzaga, 17-3 (7-1), WCC, SOS: 77
#14 Marquette, 18-4 (7-2), Big East, SOS: 34
#18 Virginia, 17-3 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 120
#19 Florida, 17-4 (5-1), SEC, SOS: 69
#20 Wisconsin, 17-5 (6-3), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#23 Vanderbilt, 16-5 (5-1), SEC, SOS: 11
#25 Indiana, 17-5 (5-5), Big Ten, SOS: 42
#27 Louisville, 17-5 (5-4), Big East, SOS: 46
#29 Georgetown, 16-4 (6-3), Big East, SOS: 64
#30 Mississippi State, 17-5 (4-3), SEC, SOS: 57
#34 Kansas State, 15-5 (4-4), Big XII, SOS: 61
#36 Florida State, 14-6 (5-1), ACC, SOS: 5
#39 Connecticut, 14-6 (4-4), Big East, SOS: 9
#41 Seton Hall, 15-6 (4-5), Big East, SOS: 20
#42 West Virginia, 15-7 (5-4), Big East, SOS: 3
#43 Minnesota, 16-6 (4-5), Big Ten, SOS: 47
#45 Illinois, 15-6 (4-4), Big Ten, SOS: 30
#46 Michigan, 16-6 (6-3), Big Ten, SOS: 40

"BUBBLE" (20 teams for 15 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#22 San Diego State, 18-3 (4-1), Mountain West, SOS: 145
#26 Wichita State, 18-4 (9-2), MVC, SOS: 114
#33 New Mexico, 17-4 (3-2), Mountain West, SOS: 134
#38 Memphis, 15-6 (6-1), C-USA, SOS: 16
#47 Massachusetts, 16-5 (5-2), A-10, SOS: 118
#48 St. Louis, 16-5 (4-3), A-10, SOS: 117
#50 Colorado State, 14-6 (3-2), Mountain West, SOS: 33
#52 Iowa State, 15-6 (5-3), Big XII, SOS: 60
#53 Alabama, 14-7 (3-4), SEC, SOS: 7
#54 BYU, 18-6 (6-3), WCC, SOS: 128
#55 Oregon, 15-6 (6-3), Pac-12, SOS: 78
#57 Arkansas, 15-6 (3-3), SEC, SOS: 71
#61 Purdue, 15-7 (5-4), Big Ten, SOS: 37
#62 NC State, 15-7 (4-3), ACC, SOS: 35
#66 Xavier, 14-7 (5-3), A-10, SOS: 24
#76 Ole Miss, 14-7 (4-3), SEC, SOS: 41
#78 Cincinnati, 15-7 (5-4), Big East, SOS: 113
#80 Notre Dame, 14-8 (6-3), Big East, SOS: 28
#82 Miami, 12-7 (3-3), ACC, SOS: 27
#89 Maryland, 13-7 (3-3), ACC, SOS: 81

"MIRACLE WATCH" (33) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#51 Wyoming, 17-4 (3-2), Mountain West, SOS: 272
#56 Drexel, 17-5 (9-2), CAA, SOS: 231
#59 George Mason, 18-5 (10-1), CAA, SOS: 266
#63 Denver, 16-6 (6-3), Sun Belt, SOS: 166
#65 La Salle, 16-6 (5-2), A-10, SOS: 141
#67 Loyola (MD), 16-5 (9-2), MAAC, SOS: 222
#69 Stanford, 15-6 (5-4), Pac-12, SOS: 123
#70 Washington, 14-7 (7-2), Pac-12, SOS: 56
#71 Dayton, 14-7 (4-3), A-10, SOS: 49
#72 UCF, 15-6 (5-3), C-USA, SOS: 129
#73 South Dakota State, 17-6 (9-2), Summit, SOS: 185
#74 Texas, 13-8 (3-5), Big XII, SOS: 10
#75 Oklahoma, 13-7 (3-5), Big XII, SOS: 48
#79 Northwestern, 12-8 (2-6), Big Ten, SOS: 4
#81 Akron, 14-7 (6-1), MAC, SOS: 89
#83 Arizona, 14-8 (5-4), Pac-12, SOS: 68
#84 New Mexico State, 15-7 (5-2), WAC, SOS: 148
#85 Kent State, 14-6 (4-3), MAC, SOS: 213
#92 St. Joseph's, 13-9 (3-4), A-10, SOS: 15
#95 Pittsburgh, 13-9 (2-7), Big East, SOS: 26
#108 LSU, 12-9 (2-5), SEC, SOS: 36
#110 Virginia Tech, 12-9 (1-5), ACC, SOS: 45
#111 South Florida, 13-9 (6-3), Big East, SOS: 52
#116 Nebraska, 11-9 (3-6), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#124 Texas A&M, 12-8 (3-5), Big XII, SOS: 133
#128 Rutgers, 12-10 (4-5), Big East, SOS: 72
#129 Auburn, 12-9 (2-5), SEC, SOS: 100
#139 Providence, 12-10 (1-8), Big East, SOS: 94
#140 Georgia, 10-10 (1-5), SEC, SOS: 12
#143 Clemson, 11-9 (3-3), ACC, SOS: 152
#144 Iowa, 11-11 (3-6), Big Ten, SOS: 38
#146 DePaul, 11-9 (2-6), Big East, SOS: 127
#148 Wake Forest, 11-10 (2-5), ACC, SOS: 70

2012 Tournament Watch

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the January 16th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past four seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 211 of the 263 tournament berths over that period. In 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10, 13 in '10-11) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with only one exception.

The final tournament projections over the last four years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete field, have correctly placed 255 of the 263 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive, or have already earned, their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Syracuse, 19-0 (6-0), Big East, SOS: 14
#2 Baylor, 17-0 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 93
#3 Duke, 15-2 (3-0), ACC, SOS: 1
#4 Kentucky, 17-1 (3-0), SEC, SOS: 100
#6 Creighton, 16-2 (6-1), MVC, SOS: 81
#9 Ohio State, 16-3 (4-2), Big Ten, SOS: 23
#11 Gonzaga, 14-3 (4-1), WCC, SOS: 16
#12 Murray State, 18-0 (6-0), OVC, SOS: 325
#20 New Mexico, 15-2 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 216
#22 Middle Tennessee, 17-2 (6-0), Sun Belt, SOS: 292
#23 Harvard, 15-2 (1-0), Ivy, SOS: 244
#28 Southern Miss, 16-3 (3-1), C-USA, SOS: 147
#29 California, 15-4 (5-1), Pac-12, SOS: 87
#32 Oral Roberts, 16-4 (8-0), Summit, SOS: 123
#37 Wagner, 14-3 (5-1), NEC, SOS: 228
#39 Iona, 14-4 (6-1), MAAC, SOS: 90
#46 Dayton, 13-5 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 18
#48 Nevada, 14-3 (4-0), WAC, SOS: 220
#60 Cleveland State, 15-4 (5-2), Horizon, SOS: 202
#61 Davidson, 12-4 (6-0), SOCON, SOS: 102
#63 Weber State, 14-3 (6-0), Big Sky, SOS: 299
#69 Ohio, 13-4 (1-2), MAC, SOS: 204
#70 VCU, 13-5 (4-2), CAA, SOS: 146
#88 Long Beach State, 12-6 (5-0), Big West, SOS: 118
#91 Lehigh, 14-5 (2-1), Patriot, SOS: 311
#95 Belmont, 12-6 (5-1), A-Sun, SOS: 152
#98 Texas-Arlington, 11-5 (4-0), Southland, SOS: 281
#99 Norfolk State, 13-5 (5-0), MEAC, SOS: 271
#108 Coastal Carolina, 13-4 (6-1), Big South, SOS: 342
#139 Albany, 12-7 (4-1), AEC, SOS: 314
#249 Texas Southern, 5-11 (4-0), SWAC, SOS: 19

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (21)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#5 Missouri, 16-1 (3-1), Big XII, SOS: 122
#7 Seton Hall, 15-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 6
#8 Connecticut, 14-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 5
#10 Michigan State, 15-3 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#13 Kansas, 14-3 (4-0), Big XII, SOS: 21
#14 North Carolina, 15-3 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 56
#15 Indiana, 15-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 36
#16 Virginia, 14-2 (1-1), ACC, SOS: 134
#17 Illinois, 15-3 (4-1), Big Ten, SOS: 24
#19 Mississippi State, 15-3 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 95
#21 Georgetown, 14-3 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 59
#25 Alabama, 13-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 15
#27 Marquette, 14-4 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 30
#31 Vanderbilt, 13-4 (3-0), SEC, SOS: 27
#33 Louisville, 14-4 (2-3), Big East, SOS: 69
#35 West Virginia, 13-5 (4-2), Big East, SOS: 2
#36 Kansas State, 12-4 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 33
#40 Northwestern, 12-5 (2-3), Big Ten, SOS: 3
#41 Michigan, 14-4 (4-2), Big Ten, SOS: 77
#43 Wisconsin, 14-5 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 46
#44 Minnesota, 14-5 (2-4), Big Ten, SOS: 35

"BUBBLE" (26 teams for 16 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but a few will.

#18 St. Mary's, 17-2 (6-0), WCC, SOS: 195
#24 UNLV, 16-3 (0-1), Mountain West, SOS: 139
#26 Wichita State, 15-3 (6-1), MVC, SOS: 124
#30 San Diego State, 15-2 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 229
#34 Stanford, 15-3 (5-1), Pac-12, SOS: 167
#38 Denver, 14-4 (4-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 110
#42 Florida, 14-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 112
#45 Colorado State, 12-4 (1-0), Mountain West, SOS: 51
#47 Massachusetts, 14-4 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 136
#49 Marshall, 13-4 (4-0), C-USA, SOS: 80
#50 BYU, 15-4 (4-1), WCC, SOS: 157
#51 Memphis, 12-5 (3-0), C-USA, SOS: 12
#52 Oregon, 13-5 (4-2), Pac-12, SOS: 49
#53 Purdue, 13-5 (3-2), Big Ten, SOS: 34
#54 Arkansas, 13-4 (2-1), SEC, SOS: 131
#55 NC State, 13-5 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 31
#57 Xavier, 12-5 (3-1), A-10, SOS: 26
#58 Texas, 12-5 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 65
#62 Temple, 11-5 (1-2), A-10, SOS: 9
#64 Iowa State, 12-5 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 38
#65 UCF, 13-4 (3-1), C-USA, SOS: 170
#66 Oklahoma, 11-5 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 55
#67 Maryland, 12-4 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 138
#68 Florida State, 11-6 (2-1), ACC, SOS: 8
#72 Wyoming, 14-3 (0-1), Mountain West, SOS: 331
#96 Notre Dame, 11-7 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 54

"MIRACLE WATCH" (33) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#56 St. Louis, 14-4 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 156
#59 Cincinnati, 14-4 (4-1), Big East, SOS: 184
#71 Northern Iowa, 13-6 (3-4), MVC, SOS: 37
#73 St. Joseph's, 12-6 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 28
#74 Arizona, 12-6 (3-2), Pac-12, SOS: 43
#75 New Mexico State, 13-5 (3-0), WAC, SOS: 142
#76 College of Charleston, 12-5 (4-2), SOCON, SOS: 119
#77 La Salle, 13-5 (2-1), A-10, SOS: 171
#78 North Dakota State, 13-4 (6-2), Summit, SOS: 270
#79 Kent State, 12-4 (2-1), MAC, SOS: 246
#80 South Dakota State, 15-5 (7-1), Summit, SOS: 226
#81 George Mason, 13-5 (5-1), CAA, SOS: 231
#82 Drexel, 12-5 (4-2), CAA, SOS: 189
#83 LSU, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 68
#84 Washington, 11-6 (4-1), Pac-12, SOS: 74
#85 Georgia State, 13-4 (5-1), CAA, SOS: 328
#87 Ole Miss, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 42
#89 Miami, 9-6 (0-2), ACC, SOS: 10
#90 Virginia Tech, 11-6 (0-3), ACC, SOS: 86
#97 Pittsburgh, 11-7 (0-5), Big East, SOS: 70
#104 Providence, 12-7 (1-5), Big East, SOS: 113
#107 Charlotte, 9-7 (2-2), A-10, SOS: 40
#109 Auburn, 11-6 (1-2), SEC, SOS: 154
#111 Iowa, 11-8 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 39
#116 Wake Forest, 10-7 (1-2), ACC, SOS: 62
#127 Georgia, 9-8 (0-3), SEC, SOS: 25
#130 DePaul, 10-7 (1-4), Big East, SOS: 145
#131 Texas A&M, 10-6 (1-3), Big XII, SOS: 230
#133 Rutgers, 10-8 (2-3), Big East, SOS: 97
#135 Nebraska, 9-8 (1-5), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#136 South Florida, 10-8 (3-2), Big East, SOS: 71
#141 Oklahoma State, 9-8 (2-2), Big XII, SOS: 48
#147 Clemson, 9-8 (1-2), ACC, SOS: 135