The Big Game: Week 6

Kentucky - at - South Carolina

Kentucky

Rushing Offense: 223.6 (15th), Rushing Defense: 203.2 (103rd)
Passing Offense: 268.6 (28th), Passing Defense: 181.6 (26th)
Total Offense: 492.2 (12th), Total Defense: 384.8 (69th)
Scoring Offense: 46.6 (5th), Scoring Defense: 22.0 (43rd)

Schedule (5-0): won vs. Eastern Kentucky (50-10), won vs. Kent State (56-20), won vs. Louisville (40-34), won at Arkansas (42-29), won vs. FAU (45-17)

Last year, UK surprised everyone by posting an 8-win season, including a victory over Clemson in the Music City Bowl. The success experienced by the 'Cats was credited to great coaching (Rich Brooks), superb quarterback play (Andre Woodson), and a manageable schedule (Texas State, Ole Miss, Central Michigan, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and UL Monroe). Coming in to the 2007 season, many knew Kentucky would put a quality product on the field, especially with the return of 15 starters, including Woodson. However, due to the tougher schedule, not many expected a return to the post-season. In fact, both Phil Steele and I predicted them to finish in the SEC East basement this year. With the 5-0 start, including wins over Louisville and Arkansas, UK has proven that they are for real and ready to challenge not only for a bowl, but for a spot in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The Wildcats get a great opportunity this week to make a statement as they travel to Columbia to play my preseason SEC East favorite, South Carolina.

South Carolina

Rushing Offense: 139.6 (72nd), Rushing Defense: 201.2 (100th)
Passing Offense: 224.0 (62nd), Passing Defense: 106.4 (1st)
Total Offense: 363.6 (77th), Total Defense: 307.6 (26th)
Scoring Offense: 27.2 (58th), Scoring Defense: 15.6 (16th)

Schedule (4-1): won vs. UL Lafayette (28-14), won at Georgia (16-12), won vs. South Carolina State (38-3), lost at LSU (16-28), won vs. Mississippi State (38-21)

Typically, when people think about a Steve Spurrier coached team, they are going to think about the offense. That is exactly why the Gamecocks have been overlooked thus far in the '07 season. In the four major offensive categories, South Carolina ranks no higher than 58th. However, on the other side of the ball, the 'Cocks boast the #1 pass defense in the country, the #16 scoring defense, and the #26 total defense. It should also be noted that those stats were accrued while playing three SEC games, including road tilts at LSU and Georgia. In fact, only offensive powerhouse LSU has scored more than 21 points against USC all season. Given that Kentucky lives and dies by their offense, it appears the key to the game may be how well the mediocre Gamecock offense can perform against the mediocre Wildcat defense. A win would put South Carolina in a position to control their own destiny in the East as all six teams would then have a conference loss, and the Gamecocks would have the head-to-head tie-breakers over Georgia and Kentucky.

The Pick

Vegas: South Carolina favored by 3.5
NpOl (5-0): Kentucky favored by 1.0
OpOl (4-1): Kentucky favored by
NpNl (5-0): South Carolina favored by 3.0

Guru Pick (4-1): Trust that the Ol' Ball Coach will have a fine game plan in place when his Gamecocks kick off against the Kentucky Wildcats on Thursday night. I expect the South Carolina rush offense to have one of its better outings of the season and for the defense to do a decent job of controlling the Kentucky passing attack. Likewise, Kentucky will be well prepared to play to their strengths, especially with the running game, and keep the game close all night long. All in all, this appears to be a very even match-up. However, after seeing the character exhibited by this UK team in their come-from-behind victories over rival Louisville and on the road at Arkansas, I am calling Kentucky to pull their second SEC road upset of the season, 31-25.

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Games To Watch

Though the following games were not chosen as the week's Big Game, they are intriguing match-ups that may lead to upsets. Make sure to keep your eye on ...

Florida at LSU
Ohio State at Purdue
Wisconsin at Illinois
Texas vs. Oklahoma (at Dallas, Texas)
Nebraska at Missouri
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Cincinnati at Rutgers

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Past Big Games

Week 1: Tennessee (31) at California (45)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 2: Virginia Tech (7) at LSU (48)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 3: USC (49) at Nebraska (31)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 4: South Carolina (16) at LSU (28)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 5: West Virginia (13) at South Florida (21)
picked correctly by 2 models