The Big Game: Week 8

Auburn - at - LSU

Auburn

Rushing Offense: 165.6 (49th), Rushing Defense: 109.3 (28th)
Passing Offense: 169.6 (105th), Passing Defense: 169.7 (12th)
Total Offense: 335.1 (97th), Total Defense: 279.0 (9th)
Scoring Offense: 25.6 (70th), Scoring Defense: 15.6 (10th)

Schedule (5-2): won vs. Kansas State (23-13), lost vs. South Florida (23-26), lost vs. Mississippi State (14-19), won vs. New Mexico State (55-20), won at Florida (20-17), won vs. Vanderbilt (35-7), won at Arkansas (9-7)

Against one of the toughest schedules in the country to this point, the Auburn Tigers have played lights out defense. In fact, the boys from the Plains have held every one of their opponents under their respective averages in terms of scoring. Kansas State is averaging more than 36 points per game, but could only muster 13 against the Tigers. Florida, averaging almost 40 points per game, could only score 17 at home against Auburn. Even more impressive is that Arkansas, who is averaging close to 37 points per game was held to a single touchdown at home this past week. The Auburn defense is one of only seven units in the entire country to be ranked in the top ten in both total defense and scoring defense. Unfortunately, the offense is yet to find an identity. Outside of the 55 point performance against New Mexico State (96th in scoring defense), the offense has been held largely in check. This weekend, Auburn will face the #2 total defense and the #6 scoring defense in the land, so the lack of an offense should be a major concern. Fortunately for Auburn, they have adopted a road warrior attitude this year as they have come away from both Gainesville and Fayetteville with wins in defensive struggles.

LSU

Rushing Offense: 232.1 (10th), Rushing Defense: 68.0 (7th)
Passing Offense: 195.7 (88th), Passing Defense: 155.1 (4th)
Total Offense: 427.9 (35th), Total Defense: 223.1 (2nd)
Scoring Offense: 37.7 (13th), Scoring Defense: 14.1 (6th)

Schedule (6-1): won at Mississippi State (45-0), won vs. Virginia Tech (48-7), won vs. Middle Tennessee (44-0), won vs. South Carolina (28-16), won at Tulane (34-9), won vs. Florida (28-24), lost at Kentucky (37-43)

Last week, LSU lost for the first time this season. However, they remain a top ranked team as they lost on the road, in triple overtime, to a now 6-1 UK team that has three come-from-behind wins against ranked teams to their credit. Furthermore, LSU still boasts the strongest resume in the country as they have posted six victories against one of the nation's toughest slates, with quality wins over Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and Florida. To put it mildly, what Kentucky pulled off was miraculous and not likely to be reproduced this season ... especially in front of 92,000+ at Tiger Stadium. The Bayou Bengals are back at home this week, a place where they have won 17 straight games. Like Auburn, LSU boasts a top ten defense that is extremely effective against both the run and the pass. Unlike Auburn, LSU is an offensive juggernaut as they are averaging nearly 40 points and 430 yards per contest, despite stiff competition. Before the season began, I predicted LSU to run the table and play in the BCS National Championship game. Despite last week's hiccup, I expect the Tigers to continue that run, starting this week.

The Pick

Vegas: LSU favored by 11.0
NpOl (6-1): LSU favored by 12.5
OpOl (5-2): LSU favored by 13.0
NpNl (7-0): LSU favored by 21.0

Guru Pick< (5-2): Expect the Tiger Bowl to be a more exciting match-up than the lines may lead you to believe. The last three games in this series have been decided by four points or less. Auburn has faced several potent offenses, yet none have been able to light up the scoreboard against them. LSU should be no different. Expect this game to be one of the great defensive battles of the year and expect at least one of the defenses to score in this game. Though the defenses may be a wash, LSU does boast the better offense. Furthermore, this game is in Baton Rouge where the Bayou Bengals are 4-0 on the year (winning by an average score of 37-12). Expect LSU to rebound from last week's unexpected loss to edge Auburn, 27-20.

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Games To Watch

Though the following games were not chosen as the week's Big Game, they are intriguing match-ups that may lead to upsets. Make sure to keep your eye on ...

Florida at Kentucky
Penn State at Indiana
Michigan State at Ohio State
Texas Tech at Missouri
South Florida at Rutgers

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Past Big Games

Week 1: Tennessee (31) at California (45)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 2: Virginia Tech (7) at LSU (48)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 3: USC (49) at Nebraska (31)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 4: South Carolina (16) at LSU (28)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 5: West Virginia (13) at South Florida (21)
picked correctly by 2 models

Week 6: Kentucky (23) at South Carolina (38)
picked correctly by NpNl model

Week 7: Missouri (31) at Oklahoma (41)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru