Rogers Poll: Blog: Outperforming the Major Polls

Updated: Tuesday, January 8, 2007

After reviewing the performance of my computer poll (the Rogers Poll) against the two major college football polls (Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Poll) thus far in the 2007 season, it is clear that my poll has proven more adept at ranking the top teams. By taking a comprehensive look at the numbers and rankings, I will demonstrate that my poll:

Ranks the best and most deserving teams

Fewer of my ranked teams have lost this season
Fewer of my ranked teams have lost to unranked teams

Ranks teams appropriately - not too high, not too low

Ranked teams that lose are ranked lower in my poll
Teams that beat ranked teams are higher in my poll

First off, it is necessary to establish a vocabulary with which to adhere. Both the AP and Coaches polls rank the Top 25 teams and list others that are receiving votes. Meanwhile, I rank all 119 programs each week. Thus, we will break down the rankings into three categories: (1) ranked teams, (2) teams receiving votes, and (3) unranked teams. Ranked teams will be teams listed in the Top 25 for a given poll. Teams receiving votes will be those teams listed as such for the AP and Coaches polls and teams ranked 26-45 in my poll. Unranked teams will be those teams that are not listed in any manner in the AP and Coaches polls and those teams ranked outside of my top 45. A Top 25 team losing is considered an upset if they lose to a team that is not also ranked in the Top 25.

As a note, the AP poll has averaged 39.5 teams receiving votes with a minimum of 34 and a maximum of 47. Meanwhile, the Coaches poll has averaged 42.1 teams receiving votes with a minimum of 35 and a maximum of 49.

Ranking The Best Teams

In the AP poll, ranked teams have lost a total of 110 times (53 times to other ranked teams, 22 times to teams receiving votes, and 35 other times to unranked teams). Thus, there have been 57 upsets in this poll.

In the Coaches poll, ranked teams have lost a total of 110 times (53 times to other ranked teams, 25 times to teams receiving votes, and 32 other times to unranked teams). Thus, there have been 57 upsets in this poll.

In the Rogers poll, ranked teams have lost a total of 104 times (54 times to other ranked teams, 20 times to teams receiving votes, and 30 other times to unranked teams). Thus, there have been 50 upsets in this poll.

Which poll had the fewest number of ranked teams lose?
1. Rogers Poll, 104
T2. Coaches Poll, 110
T2. AP Poll, 110

Which poll has featured the fewest number of upsets?
1. Rogers Poll, 50
T2. Coaches Poll, 57
T2. AP Poll, 57

Recognizing Strengths and Weaknesses

A team has lost 129 times this season when ranked by at least one of the three polls. Analysis was done to see which poll has the losing teams in those contests ranked the lowest (recognizing weaknesses) and which poll has the winning teams in those contests ranked the highest (recognizing strengths). For each instance, a point is given to the poll that performed the best. In the case that two polls tie, they each receive one-half of a point. In the case that all three polls tie, they each receive one-third of a point.

As an example, let's look at Penn State's week four loss to Michigan. Penn State was ranked 10th by the AP poll and Coaches poll, but 13th by the Rogers Poll. As a result, the Rogers poll was awarded one point towards recognizing weaknesses. Michigan, on the other hand, was unranked by both the AP poll and Coaches poll, while being ranked 58th in the Rogers Poll. Since Michigan was outside of the top 45 in the Rogers Poll, they were also considered unranked (consistent with the standards set forth earlier in this article). Thus, the three polls tied and each received one-third of a point towards recognizing strengths.

Which poll has been the best at recognizing weaknesses?
1. Rogers Poll, 68.33 points (53.0%)
2. Coaches Poll, 30.83 points (23.9%)
3. AP Poll, 29.83 points (23.1%)

Which poll has been the best at recognizing strengths?
1. Rogers Poll, 50.33 points (39.0%)
2. AP Poll, 40.83 points (31.7%)
3. Coaches Poll, 37.83 points (29.3%)

Conclusion

In all four categories, the Rogers Poll has outperformed both of the major college football polls. In addition to ranking fewer teams that will lose and/or be upset by an unranked team, my poll is more effective at recognizing team strengths and weaknesses. For example, I had Michigan rated #18 while the major polls had them at #5 directly prior to their loss to Appalachian State.

When Penn State lost to Michigan, I was the only one that had them ranked outside of the top ten. When Georgia was routed by Tennessee, I was the only one that didn't have the Bulldogs ranked (they were top 12 in the AP and Coaches poll). When South Florida beat West Virginia, I had USF ranked higher than the major polls and WVU ranked lower than the major polls. Likewise, I had South Carolina rated higher in the polls when they beat Georgia (who I had ranked lower than the other polls). The same is true for when Auburn beat Florida, when Illinois beat Wisconsin, when Florida State beat Boston College, when Virginia beat Wake Forest, when Illinois beat Ohio State, when Boston College beat Clemson, and when Missouri beat Kansas.

Furthermore, when UCLA lost to Utah, I had the Bruins ranked the lowest. The same goes for when Oklahoma lost to Colorado, when Texas lost to Kansas State, when Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, when Kentucky lost to South Carolina, when USC lost to Stanford, when Cal lost to Oregon State, when South Carolina lost to Vanderbilt, when Kentucky lost to Florida, when Cal lost to UCLA, when Florida lost to Georgia, when Kentucky lost to Mississippi State, when South Carolina lost to Tennessee, when South Carolina lost to Arkansas, when Michigan lost to Wisconsin, when Alabama lost to Mississippi State, and when Texas lost to Texas A&M. The list goes on and on.

During the bowl games, the Rogers Poll continued to outperform the major polls as I had fewer ranked teams lose and consistently had the ranked teams that did lose ranked lower than the AP and Coaches polls. Wisconsin (#18 AP, #15 Coaches), Clemson (#15 AP, #16 Coaches), and Virginia (#21 AP, #20 Coaches) all lost their respective bowl games to lower ranked teams. The Rogers Poll did not have them ranked in the Top 25.

Arizona State was upset by Texas in the Holiday Bowl after coming in ranked #12 in the AP Poll and #11 in the Coaches Poll. The Rogers Poll had the Sun Devils ranked the lowest, at #19. Florida was upset by Michigan in the Capital One Bowl after entering the contest ranked #9 by the AP and #12 by the Coaches. The Rogers Poll had the Gators ranked the lowest, at #14. Virginia Tech was upset by Kansas in the Orange Bowl after coming in ranked #5 by both the AP and the Coaches. The Rogers Poll had the Hokies ranked #6. The Ohio State Buckeyes, losers of the national championship game, entered the bowl season ranked #1 by both the AP and the Coaches. The Rogers Poll had the Buckeyes ranked #4.

Among the teams pulling the upsets in the bowl games, it should be noted that the Rogers Poll was the only poll that had Oregon ranked (#20) prior to their Sun Bowl upset of South Florida, which was ranked in the Top 25 by all polls. Additionally, the Rogers Poll was the only poll that had Texas Tech ranked (#15) prior to their Gator Bowl upset of Virginia. Virginia was ranked by both the AP (#21) and Coaches (#20) polls, but not by the Rogers Poll. In fact, the Rogers Poll had the Cavaliers ranked #37 entering the bowl game.

Reference

Poll Comparison: When Ranked Teams Lose