The Big Game: Week 14

Big XII Championship Game
Oklahoma - vs - Missouri
(at San Antonio)

Oklahoma

Rushing Offense: 193.9 (28th), Rushing Defense: 91.4 (7th)
Passing Offense: 263.7 (35th), Passing Defense: 233.2 (70th)
Total Offense: 457.6 (17th), Total Defense: 324.6 (18th)
Scoring Offense: 43.8 (3rd), Scoring Defense: 18.3 (10th)

Schedule (10-2): won vs. North Texas (79-10), won vs. Miami (51-13), won vs. Utah State (54-3), won at Tulsa (62-21), lost at Colorado (24-27), won vs. Texas (28-21), won vs. Missouri (41-31), won at Iowa State (17-7), won vs. Texas A&M (42-14), won vs. Baylor (52-21), lost at Texas Tech (27-34), won vs. Oklahoma State (49-17)

The Sooners had all the makings of a national championship team this season, but two close losses on the road (at Colorado, at Texas Tech) have cost them a shot at laying claim to the nation's #1 ranking. Instead, they will play for the Big XII Championship and the right to play in the Fiesta Bowl where they can erase memories of last year's overtime loss to Boise State. To accomplish that, they will have to beat Missouri for the second time this year and they must do it away from Norman. On October 13th, Oklahoma held Missouri's potent offense to its lowest point total of the season (31) while racking up 41 points against their porous defense. It was part of the Sooners' 7-0 campaign at home this year where the average score was 52-15. It is worth mentioning that the 41 points the Sooners scored in their first match-up with Missouri was their lowest point total at home all year. Likewise, the 31 scored by the Tigers was the most given up by the Sooners at home all year. Away from home, the Sooners have been a different team. They are just 3-2 and the average score has been just 31-22 in favor of OU. Fortunately for the Sooners, playing away from home doesn't mean they will be playing in Columbia (where the Tigers are 6-0 this season). The game will be held at a neutral site in San Antonio. The Sooners own a win over Texas at neutral site earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Tigers own a 2-0 mark on neutral turf this year with wins over Illinois and Kansas. This will certainly be the toughest test OU has faced all season. They have won 17 of the last 18 against Mizzou, but they will need a stellar performance to keep their winning streak against the Tigers alive.

Missouri

Rushing Offense: 170.5 (50th), Rushing Defense: 114.9 (25th)
Passing Offense: 336.8 (5th), Passing Defense: 265.8 (103rd)
Total Offense: 507.3 (5th), Total Defense: 380.8 (60th)
Scoring Offense: 41.9 (6th), Scoring Defense: 23.4 (39th)

Schedule (11-1): won vs. Illinois (40-34), won at Ole Miss (38-25), won vs. Western Michigan (52-24), won vs. Illinois State (38-17), won vs. Nebraska (41-6), lost at Oklahoma (31-41), won vs. Texas Tech (41-10), won vs. Iowa State (42-28), won at Colorado (55-10), won vs. Texas A&M (40-26), won at Kansas State (49-32), won vs. Kansas (36-28)

Missouri wrapped up the Big XII North title last week with their biggest win of the year, squeaking by Kansas 36-28 in Week 13's Big Game. It also marked their third win over a team currently ranked in the Top 25, accompanying wins over Illinois and Texas Tech. Now, they face a rematch of Week 7's Big Game against a powerful 10-2 Oklahoma team. The Sooners are the only team this year that have been able to best the Tigers. Since that time, Mizzou has beaten everyone they've played by at least two touchdowns (save the 8-point victory over Kansas last week). The offense has become more potent and the defense has improved. Still, the Tigers defense has to be a point of concern. They are among the nation's worst at stopping the pass (ranked #103), and are middle of the road in total defense (ranked #60). Fortunately for Missouri, they have been effective at preventing teams from scoring despite their ability to move the football, giving up less than 24 points per game. The team they face, however, has displayed a great balanced attack on offense and have proven exceptionally efficient at scoring points with one of the highest points per yard ratios in the country. It is unlikely that the Tigers will be able to keep OU from lighting up the scoreboard. Missouri's best chance of winning this game will be in the hands of Chase Daniel and the offense. While the running attack is respectable, posting 170 yards per game, they face one of the nation's elite rush defenses (ranked #7). So, an effective passing attack will be necessary. Fortunately for Missouri, they have a Heisman caliber QB who has led them to the 5th ranked passing offense in the country. The match-up is great for him as the Sooners rank 70th against the pass. This game has all the makings of a shootout.

The Pick

Vegas: Oklahoma favored by 3.0
Schedule Performance Prediction (4-0): Missouri favored by 5.5
NpOl (11-2) / OpOl (10-3): Missouri favored by 4.0
NpNl (11-2): Missouri favored by 1.5

Guru Pick (9-4): The stakes may be higher for Missouri, but Oklahoma has a lot to play for as well with a Big XII title and a Fiesta Bowl berth on the line. Both teams will give it their all in this one and it will be closer than the first round battle in Norman back in October. Ultimately, I expect OU to force Mizzou to become one dimensional with the pass and force key turnovers as a result. In the end, I take Oklahoma to sweep Missouri in 2007, 34-30.

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Games To Watch

Though the following games were not chosen as the week's Big Game, they are intriguing match-ups that may lead to upsets. Make sure to keep your eye on ...

Tennessee vs. LSU (SEC Championship in Atlanta)
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (ACC Championship in Jacksonville)
UCLA at USC
Tulsa at Central Florida (C-USA Championship)

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Past Big Games

Week 1: Tennessee (31) at California (45)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 2: Virginia Tech (7) at LSU (48)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 3: USC (49) at Nebraska (31)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 4: South Carolina (16) at LSU (28)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 5: West Virginia (13) at South Florida (21)
picked correctly by 2 models

Week 6: Kentucky (23) at South Carolina (38)
picked correctly by NpNl model

Week 7: Missouri (31) at Oklahoma (41)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 8: Auburn (24) at LSU (30)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 9: Boston College (14) at Virginia Tech (10)
picked correctly by all 3 models

Week 10: Arizona State (23) at Oregon (35)
picked correctly by 2 models and guru

Week 11: Florida State (21) at Virginia Tech (40)
picked correctly by all 3 models and guru

Week 12: West Virginia (28) at Cincinnati (23)
picked correctly by 2 models and guru

Week 13: Kansas (28) vs. Missouri (36) in Kansas City
picked correctly by 2 models