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The Big Game
#19 BYU - at - #22 Air Force
After five straight weeks where the Big XII owned the week's big game, another conference finally gets the chance to be highlighted. The Mountain West, home to both BYU and Air Force, currently ranks as the 6th best conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision and the best among the non-AQ leagues, having posted a solid 25-11 out-of-conference record. In fact, four of the conference's nine teams are ranked in this week's Top 25.
Both the Cougars and Falcons are 5-1 in conference play, and both still have a chance to win the league title. This game will be huge for both programs. BYU was the darling of the non-BCS conferences earlier in the year before stumbling against TCU. Despite two close games in the following weeks, they have managed to stay focused and have pushed their record to 9-1 overall. While the hope of playing in a BCS bowl game is likely gone for the Cougars, the goal of winning their third straight league crown is still very much alive.
Air Force may be the most overlooked 8-2 program in the country. In fact, the Falcons' only losses were by 7 points to #6 Utah (10-0) and by 6 points to Navy (6-3). The academy is a very capable football team and will have the advantage of playing at home this week. With a little help from Utah's opponents, if Air Force can manage to win this game and their upcoming battle with TCU, they will own a share of the Mountain West title. It would mark their first conference title since 1998, when they won the WAC. Regardless, this season is not to be overlooked. The Falcons will be playing in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since the 1997-1998 seasons.
I expect this to be a tightly contested, back-and-forth game. Still, I think BYU finds a way to come through with a win and push their mark to 10-1 heading into a huge showdown with rival Utah to end the regular season.
Prediction: BYU (27), Air Force (24)
Games To Watch
#34 South Carolina (7-3) at #3 Florida (8-1)#26 California (6-3) at #27 Oregon State (6-3)
Florida has been going off since sleep-walking through a loss to Ole Miss. I expect them to continue that dominance against their former head coach, though Spurrier will have the Gamecocks ready to play. Gators win, 30-18. After defeating USC earlier this season, Oregon State controls their own destiny. With every win, they move closer to winning the Pac-10 and earning a spot in the Rose Bowl. They will continue on their quest after edging Cal, 28-27.
(Dis)Honorable Mention
#118 Washington State (1-9) at #91 Arizona State (3-6)#90 UCLA (3-6) at #117 Washington (0-9)
#113 UAB (2-7) at #105 Tulane (2-7)
#88 Temple (3-6) at #111 Kent State (2-7)
#97 Middle Tennessee (3-6) at #114 Western Kentucky (2-8)
The Pac-10 is the lowest rated BCS conference this season and ranked behind one non-AQ conference, the Mountain West. Two games appearing on this list is indicative of the conference's down year. Arizona State and UCLA should both win and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. UAB and Tulane have both had rough years and each needs this win. I expect Tulane to slip by the Blazers. Temple has lost so many heart-breakers this year. This week, I think they will be on the favorable end of a close game. Old rivals, MTSU and WKU, will meet in what should be a closely contested game. I expect the Blue Raiders to win in overtime.
Bowl Watch
The following 29 teams should be in a bowl game:#1 Alabama, 10-0 (6-0), SEC, SOS: 77
#2 Texas, 9-1 (5-1), Big XII, SOS: 4
#3 Florida, 8-1 (6-1), SEC, SOS: 14
#4 Texas Tech, 10-0 (6-0), Big XII, SOS: 68
#5 Boise State, 9-0 (5-0), WAC, SOS: 103
#6 Utah, 10-0 (6-0), Mountain West, SOS: 87
#7 USC, 8-1 (6-1), Pac-10, SOS: 53
#8 Oklahoma, 9-1 (5-1), Big XII, SOS: 51
#9 Penn State, 9-1 (5-1), Big Ten, SOS: 69
#10 Ball State, 9-0 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 119
#11 Ohio State, 8-2 (5-1), Big Ten, SOS: 11
#12 Georgia, 8-2 (5-2), SEC, SOS: 8
#13 Michigan State, 9-2 (6-1), Big Ten, SOS: 58
#14 Missouri, 8-2 (4-2), Big XII, SOS: 32
#15 Oklahoma State, 8-2 (4-2), Big XII, SOS: 54
#16 TCU, 9-2 (6-1), Mountain West, SOS: 79
#17 North Carolina, 7-2 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 28
#18 Pittsburgh, 7-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 49
#19 BYU, 9-1 (5-1), Mountain West, SOS: 118
#20 Cincinnati, 7-2 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 52
#21 Tulsa, 8-1 (5-0), C-USA, SOS: 120
#22 Air Force, 8-2 (5-1), Mountain West, SOS: 110
#23 Western Michigan, 8-2 (5-1), MAC, SOS: 109
#28 Oregon, 7-3 (5-2), Pac-10, SOS: 84
#30 Central Michigan, 7-2 (5-0), MAC, SOS: 106
#33 Rice, 7-3 (5-1), C-USA, SOS: 95
#34 South Carolina, 7-3 (4-3), SEC, SOS: 75
#35 Minnesota, 7-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 80
#37 Northwestern, 7-3 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 83
The following 22 teams are eligible for a bowl game:
#24 Florida State, 7-2 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 76
#25 Wake Forest, 6-3 (4-2), ACC, SOS: 26
#26 California, 6-3 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 34
#27 Oregon State, 6-3 (5-1), Pac-10, SOS: 48
#29 Virginia Tech, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 22
#31 Nebraska, 6-4 (3-3), Big XII, SOS: 9
#32 Miami, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 30
#36 LSU, 6-3 (3-3), SEC, SOS: 50
#38 Connecticut, 6-3 (2-2), Big East, SOS: 56
#39 Navy, 6-3, Independent, SOS: 46
#40 Georgia Tech, 7-3 (4-3), ACC, SOS: 66
#41 West Virginia, 6-3 (3-1), Big East, SOS: 78
#42 East Carolina, 6-3 (4-1), C-USA, SOS: 101
#43 Arizona, 6-3 (4-2), Pac-10, SOS: 115
#44 Iowa, 6-4 (3-3), Big Ten, SOS: 43
#45 Boston College, 6-3 (2-3), ACC, SOS: 97
#46 USF, 6-3 (1-3), Big East, SOS: 92
#48 Kansas, 6-4 (3-3), Big XII, SOS: 45
#50 Troy, 6-3 (4-1), Sun Belt, SOS: 114
#51 Maryland, 6-3 (3-2), ACC, SOS: 90
#52 Kentucky, 6-4 (2-4), SEC, SOS: 40
#65 San Jose State, 6-4 (4-2), WAC, SOS: 112
26 schools are already out of bowl consideration. Of the other 43 schools, 20 currently project to be eligible for a bowl game. That would put the total number of eligible schools at 71, 3 more than needed to fill the 34-game bowl schedule.
Current bowl projections have Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Utah, Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida State, Boise State, Penn State, and USC in the BCS. Rutgers, Arkansas State, and San Jose State are projected to miss bowl games despite being eligible.
All rankings are based on the latest Rogers Poll.
