Bowl Predictions Update, Final

The 2008 bowl season is finally complete. In all, my predictions were 21-13 in picking straight-up winners. It was a very competitive slate of games, with 19 of the 34 bowls decided by a touchdown or less and two of those were in overtime. Additionally, of the nine 6-6 teams that appeared in bowl games, six pulled the upset and walked away victorious.

The score predictions for each team were quite accurate. I predicted the exact score of 7 teams (10.3%) in bowl games this season (Arizona, Navy, Southern Miss, NC State, Minnesota, Penn State, and Kentucky). I was within a field goal of the actual scores 19 times (27.9%), and within a touchdown 35 times (51.5%). 45 times (66.2%), the predictions were within 10 points of the actual scores and 58 times (85.3%), they were within two touchdowns.

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest. The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Wake Forest to win the EagleBank Bowl by 7 and they ended up winning by 6. As a result, I was one point off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Central Michigan to win the Motor City Bowl by 2 and they ended up losing to FAU by 3. Thus, I was 5 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within a field goal of predicting the actual game spread in 4 of the 34 games (11.8%). I was within a touchdown 17 times (50.0%). On 20 occasions (58.8%), I was within 10 points of correctly predicting the spread. In more than two-thirds of the bowls (23, 67.6%), I was within two touchdowns of the final spread.

In the Liberty Bowl, which pitted my alma mater, East Carolina, against my wife's alma mater, Kentucky, I predicted the final score to be Kentucky - 25, East Carolina - 20. The game was tied at 19 late in the fourth quarter when the Wildcats scooped up a fumble and returned it for a touchdown. The ensuing extra point was blocked. So, when the dust settled, Kentucky won 25-19. Spooky.