Revisiting The Preseason

With the college football season complete, it's time to look back and see just how well the preseason rankings reflected what actually occurred. Four teams (3.3%) finished with the exact same ranking as they had in the preseason (#2 Florida, #27 Oklahoma State, #117 SMU, and #119 North Texas). 10 teams (8.3%) finished within 2 spots of their preseason rank, 21 (17.5%) were within 5 spots, one-third (40 of 120) were within 10 spots, and over half (61 of 120) were within 20 spots.

Fourteen of the preseason Top 25 appeared in the final Top 25. Additionally, 40 teams ranked in the preseason top 50 went on to appear in bowl games.

Using the preseason rankings as a gauge for expectations, deltas between final rank and preseason rank were used to determine the year's biggest surprises and disappointments.

Top 10 Surprises of 2008
The following ten schools produced the biggest surprises of the 2008 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was significantly higher than their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.

1. Rice (10-3): Coming off a dismal 3-9 season, ranking the Owls among the bottom ten in 2007, things didn't look overly promising for this season. Despite their preseason ranking of #110, they engineered a 10-win season that included a Texas Bowl victory and a final Top 25 ranking (#18). Rice's only losses this season were all on the road to the National Champions, Texas, C-USA West Champions, Tulsa, and Music City Bowl Champions, Vanderbilt.

2. Nebraska (9-4): First year coach, Bo Pelini, did a great job of elevating the Huskers program from their 5-7 performance in 2007 to a 9-4 ledger in 2008 that included a Gator Bowl victory over Clemson. Preseason rank: #78. Final rank: #22.

3. Ole Miss (9-4): Houston Nutt, in his first season in Oxford, didn't waste any time making the Rebels a national player. They were 3-9 last season, but somehow managed a 9-win season with notable victories over Florida in conference play and Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Preseason rank: #77. Final rank: #23.

4. Ball State (12-2): The Cardinals were 7-6 last year, including a blowout loss to Rutgers in the International Bowl. This year, they stormed out of the gate and earned a Top 25 ranking. They were bested in the MAC Championship Game and the GMAC Bowl, but still managed a 12-win season. Preseason rank: #65. Final rank: #14.

5. Colorado State (7-6): The Rams introduced rookie head coach, Steve Fairchild, after a 3-9 record last year. Despite stiff competition in the Mountain West, they were able to not only get to the New Mexico Bowl, but win it for an overall winning record. Preseason rank: #111. Final rank: #62.

6. Navy (8-5): First year head coach, Ken Niumatalolo, kept the Middies successful run going. A solid season concluded with a loss in the EagleBank Bowl to Wake Forest. They were 8-5, #60 in 2007. Preseason rank: #92. Final rank: #46.

7. UL Lafayette (6-6): After an 0-5 showing out-of-conference and a losing record in conference last year, the Cajuns were bowl eligible and Sun Belt runners-up this year. They were 3-9, #108 in 2007. Preseason rank: #114. Final rank: #69.

8. Minnesota (7-6): Plan for year one = turn the program into a joke. Plan for year two = return to where Glen Mason already had the program. They were 1-11, #114 in 2007. Preseason rank: #108. Final rank: #63. Insight Bowl berth.

9. Southern Miss (7-6): First year head coach, Larry Fedora, delivered USM's 15th consecutive winning season, defeating Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. They were 7-6, #64 in 2007. Preseason rank: #97. Final rank: #55.

10. Iowa (9-4): One year removed from not making a bowl game, the Hawkeyes were a Top 25-caliber team, knocking off Big Ten champion, Penn State, and winning the Outback Bowl. They were 6-6, #67 in 2007. Preseason rank: #70. Final rank: #28.

Five of the schools listed above were guided by first year head coaches.


Top 10 Disappointments of 2008
The following ten schools produced the biggest disappointments of the 2008 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was significantly lower than their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.

1. Washington* (0-12): Preseason expectations weren't even that high for the Huskies, as they were ranked #53 and seventh among the Pac-10 schools. Still, this once proud program followed a 4-9 campaign with the nation's only winless campaign in 2008. Their futility earned them the bottom spot in the final rankings (#120). UW's overtime loss against rival Washington State gave the Cougars their only win over an FBS team this season.

2. Illinois (5-7): Just one year ago, the Illini surprised the college football world by posting a 9-win season, a Rose Bowl berth, and a final Top 25 ranking. With a strong group of returning talent, expectations were high. Illinois followed up a preseason #12 rank with losing record and a #76 finish in the poll.

3. Mississippi State* (4-8): In 2007, Sylvester Croom finally delivered a winning season to Starkville as his Bulldogs finished 8-5, including a Liberty Bowl victory. All signs pointed to improvement in 2008, as indicated by their preseason #33 rank. Unfortunately, MSU took a big step back going only 2-6 in conference and finishing #96 in the final poll.

4. Arizona State (5-7): A 10-win season last year had the Sun Devils clamoring for inclusion in a BCS game. Instead, they appeared in the Holiday Bowl and finished #13 in the final poll. Another solid season was expected as ASU earned a preseason #18 ranking. By season's end, they missed a bowl game and appeared at #80 in the final poll.

5. UCF (4-8): The Knights were 10-4 last year, including a C-USA title and an appearance in the Liberty Bowl, earning a #26 ranking in the final poll. They lost all-everything back Kevin Smith to the NFL Draft, but returned enough talent to expect another run at the C-USA title. They were ranked #36 in the preseason, but finished tied for last in C-USA East and ranked #98.

6. Auburn* (5-7): Apparently to the Tiger faithful, six straight wins in the Iron Bowl and a consistent appearance in the Top 25 means that the offense needs to change. It did. It was bad. They were 9-4, #20 in 2007. Preseason rank: #15. Final rank: #75.

7. Michigan (3-9): Lloyd Carr wasn't performing up to snuff? Really? I hope the Wolverine fans enjoyed the change they all asked for. They were 9-4, #27 in 2007. Preseason rank: #37. Final rank: #97.

8. Tennessee* (5-7): How do you follow an SEC West title and an Outback Bowl victory? Apparently in Knoxville, with a 2-6 record in conference and missing a bowl game altogether. They were 10-4, #17 in 2007. Preseason rank: #11. Final rank: #70.

9. Washington State (2-11): Under a new regime, the Cougars were one of the worst teams in the entire country. Fortunately for them, Washington was even worse. They were 5-7, #69 in 2007. Preseason rank: #64. Final rank: #114.

10. Indiana (3-9): After a bowl game appearance last year, the Hoosiers were back to familiar territory in 2008, finishing last in the Big Ten. They were 7-6, #59 in 2007. Preseason rank: #59. Final rank: #107.

* Indicates that a head coaching change was made.

Don't think coaching in the SEC is serious business? Three SEC schools appeared on this list. All three made coaching changes.


Living Up To Expectations
Good or bad, the following ten schools performed precisely as expected for the 2008 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was within two spots of their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.

Florida (13-1): Preseason #2, Final #2.
Oklahoma State (9-4): Preseason #27, Final #27.
Wake Forest (8-5): Preseason #31, Final #32.
Troy (8-5): Preseason #49, Final #48.
Stanford (5-7): Preseason #66, Final #68.
Utah State (3-9): Preseason #103, Final #101.
Idaho (2-10): Preseason #118, Final #116.
SMU (1-11): Preseason #117, Final #117.
Western Kentucky (2-10): Preseason #120, Final #118.
North Texas (1-11): Preseason #119, Final #119.


The biggest surprises and disappointments are interesting to point out on a national level. However, those titles are a little more meaningful when looking at individual conferences. Borrowing from the great Stephen Colbert, we give out tips of the hat and wags of the finger.

Tip-of-the-hat: #35 North Carolina (8-5) was 4-8, #90 in 2007 and ranked #74 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #56 Clemson (7-6) was 9-4, #28 in 2007 and ranked #24 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #16 Pittsburgh (9-4) was 5-7, #71 in 2007 and ranked #43 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #43 USF (8-5) was 9-4, #19 in 2007 and ranked #9 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #63 Minnesota (7-6) was 1-11, #114 in 2007 and ranked #108 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #76 Illinois (5-7) was 9-4, #22 in 2007 and ranked #12 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #22 Nebraska (9-4) was 5-7, #65 in 2007 and ranked #78 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #94 Texas A&M (4-8) was 7-6, #50 in 2007 and ranked #63 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #18 Rice (10-3) was 3-9, #110 in 2007 and ranked #110 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #98 UCF (4-8) was 10-4, #26 in 2007 and ranked #36 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #46 Navy (8-5) was 8-5, #60 in 2007 and ranked #92 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #118 WKU (2-10) was the only Independent not to exceed expecations, ranked #120 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #14 Ball State (12-2) was 7-6, #66 in 2007 and ranked #65 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #115 Miami Ohio (2-10) was 6-7, #82 in 2007 and ranked #72 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #62 Colorado State (7-6) was 3-9, #99 in 2007 and ranked #111 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #89 New Mexico (4-8) was 9-4, #38 in 2007 and ranked #54 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #24 California (9-4) was 7-6, #49 in 2007 and ranked #45 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #120 Washington (0-12) was 4-9, #80 in 2007 and ranked #53 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #23 Ole Miss (9-4) was 3-9, #95 in 2007 and ranked #77 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #96 Mississippi State (4-8) was 8-5, #42 in 2007 and ranked #33 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #69 UL Lafayette (6-6) was 3-9, #108 in 2007 and ranked #114 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #105 UL Monroe (4-8) was 6-6, #75 in 2007 and ranked #81 in the preseason.


Tip-of-the-hat: #6 Boise State (12-1) was 10-3, #25 in 2007 and ranked #46 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #61 Fresno State (7-6) was 9-4, #36 in 2007 and ranked #35 in the preseason.