Bracket Predictions Update: Elite Eight

Over at ESPN.com, I have submitted an entry in their Tournament Challenge contest. In this contest, you must predict the winner for each of the 63 games in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament and then predict the final score in the championship game.

The entry that simply picked the team with the higher Rogers Poll rank to win each game went 23-9 in the first round, 14-2 in the second round, and 4-2 in the Sweet Sixteen for a 43-13 ledger heading into the Elite Eight. In the round of eight, it was 1-1 in games where both expected teams met and 0-2 in games where only one of the expected teams played. In all, it was 1-3 for a 44-16 (73.3%) record heading into the Final Four. Neither of the projected championship game participants remain, so this entry will finish 44-19 (69.8%).

My other entry, which you can see by clicking here, used score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

In the Elite Eight round of the tournament, it posted a 1-3 record (1-2 when only one of the expected teams played, and 0-1 in the game where neither projected team made it). The complete ledger for the first three rounds is 40-20 (66.7%). Neither of the projected championship game participants remain, so this entry will finish 40-23 (63.5%).

Though the bracket had to project the winners of each first round game and then the winners of all projected match-ups throughout the tournament prior to the first tip off, I have continued to apply the algorithm to the actual match-ups to see how it performs throughout the tournament. After four rounds, it is 46-14 (76.7%) having gone 3-1 in the Elite Eight.

Of the 14 incorrect picks thus far, 3 of them were in games projected to be decided by a single point. Another was projected to be decided by just 2 points. Four others were projected to be decided within 7 points or fewer.

To date, I have successfully predicted the exact score of BYU (1st round), North Dakota State (1st round), and Arizona State (2nd round). I have been within 5 points for 40 teams (33.3%), and within 10 points for 75 teams (62.5%). I've been within 20 points for 107 teams (89.2%).

I have predicted the exact spread for the Washington/Mississippi State game, the Michigan State/USC game, and the Purdue/Washington game. I have been within 5 points for 14 games (23.3%), and within 10 points for 29 games (48.3%). I was within 20 points for 50 games (83.3%).

Also See:
03/28: Score Predictions: Elite Eight
03/28: Bracket Predictions Update: Sweet Sixteen
03/25: Score Predictions: Sweet Sixteen
03/23: Bracket Predictions Update: Round 2
03/21: Score Predictions: Second Round
03/21: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 2
03/20: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 2
03/20: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 1
03/18: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 1
03/18: Bracket Predictions