Over at ESPN.com, I have submitted an entry in their Tournament Challenge contest. In this contest, you must predict the winner for each of the 63 games in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament and then predict the final score in the championship game.The entry that simply picked the team with the higher Rogers Poll rank to win each game went 11-5 on the first day and 12-4 on the second day for a 23-9 record in the first round. In the second round, it was 7-1 in games where both expected teams met, 7-0 in games where only one of the expected teams played, and there was one game where neither of the expected teams were there. In all, it was 23-9 in the first round and 14-2 in the second round for a 37-11 (77.1%) record heading into the Sweet Sixteen. This entry is currently at the 88.87% percentile on ESPN.com.
My other entry, which you can see by clicking here, used score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).
In the second round of the tournament, I posted a 10-6 record. The complete ledger for the first two rounds was 36-12 (75.0%). Only 5 of the projected Elite Eight, 3 of the projected Final Four, and 1 of the projected Championship Game participants remain. It is becoming obvious that this model is far more applicable to the college football domain.
Though the bracket had to project the winners of each first round game and then the winners of all projected match-ups throughout the tournament prior to the first tip off, I have continued to apply the algorithm to the actual match-ups to see how it performs throughout the tournament. After two rounds, it is 37-11 (77.1%) having gone 11-5 in the second round.
Of the 11 incorrect picks thus far, 3 of them were in games projected to be decided by a single point. Another was projected to be decided by just 2 points, and two others were projected to be 7-point deltas.
To date, I have successfully predicted the exact score of BYU (1st round), North Dakota State (1st round), and Arizona State (2nd round). I have been within 5 points for 34 teams (35.4%), and within 10 points for 61 teams (63.5%). I've been within 20 points for 87 teams (90.6%).
I have predicted the exact spread for the Washington/Mississippi State game, the Michigan State/USC game, and the Purdue/Washington game. I have been within 5 points for 12 games (25.0%), and within 10 points for 22 games (45.8%). I was within 20 points for 40 games (83.3%).
Also See:
03/21: Score Predictions: Second Round
03/21: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 2
03/20: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 2
03/20: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 1
03/18: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 1
03/18: Bracket Predictions
