NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Final Four

The following projected results for the Final Four round of the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Michigan State over Connecticut, 72-67

North Carolina over Villanova, 77-76

Bracket Predictions Update: Elite Eight

Over at ESPN.com, I have submitted an entry in their Tournament Challenge contest. In this contest, you must predict the winner for each of the 63 games in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament and then predict the final score in the championship game.

The entry that simply picked the team with the higher Rogers Poll rank to win each game went 23-9 in the first round, 14-2 in the second round, and 4-2 in the Sweet Sixteen for a 43-13 ledger heading into the Elite Eight. In the round of eight, it was 1-1 in games where both expected teams met and 0-2 in games where only one of the expected teams played. In all, it was 1-3 for a 44-16 (73.3%) record heading into the Final Four. Neither of the projected championship game participants remain, so this entry will finish 44-19 (69.8%).

My other entry, which you can see by clicking here, used score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

In the Elite Eight round of the tournament, it posted a 1-3 record (1-2 when only one of the expected teams played, and 0-1 in the game where neither projected team made it). The complete ledger for the first three rounds is 40-20 (66.7%). Neither of the projected championship game participants remain, so this entry will finish 40-23 (63.5%).

Though the bracket had to project the winners of each first round game and then the winners of all projected match-ups throughout the tournament prior to the first tip off, I have continued to apply the algorithm to the actual match-ups to see how it performs throughout the tournament. After four rounds, it is 46-14 (76.7%) having gone 3-1 in the Elite Eight.

Of the 14 incorrect picks thus far, 3 of them were in games projected to be decided by a single point. Another was projected to be decided by just 2 points. Four others were projected to be decided within 7 points or fewer.

To date, I have successfully predicted the exact score of BYU (1st round), North Dakota State (1st round), and Arizona State (2nd round). I have been within 5 points for 40 teams (33.3%), and within 10 points for 75 teams (62.5%). I've been within 20 points for 107 teams (89.2%).

I have predicted the exact spread for the Washington/Mississippi State game, the Michigan State/USC game, and the Purdue/Washington game. I have been within 5 points for 14 games (23.3%), and within 10 points for 29 games (48.3%). I was within 20 points for 50 games (83.3%).

Also See:
03/28: Score Predictions: Elite Eight
03/28: Bracket Predictions Update: Sweet Sixteen
03/25: Score Predictions: Sweet Sixteen
03/23: Bracket Predictions Update: Round 2
03/21: Score Predictions: Second Round
03/21: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 2
03/20: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 2
03/20: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 1
03/18: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 1
03/18: Bracket Predictions

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Elite Eight

The following projected results for the Elite Eight round of the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Michigan State over Louisville, 69-67

Connecticut over Missouri, 76-70

Pittsburgh over Villanova, 73-69

North Carolina over Oklahoma, 78-77

Bracket Predictions Update: Sweet Sixteen

Over at ESPN.com, I have submitted an entry in their Tournament Challenge contest. In this contest, you must predict the winner for each of the 63 games in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament and then predict the final score in the championship game.

The entry that simply picked the team with the higher Rogers Poll rank to win each game went 23-9 in the first round and 14-2 in the second round for a 37-11 ledger heading into the Sweet Sixteen. In the round of sixteen, it was 4-2 in games where both expected teams met and 2-0 in games where only one of the expected teams played. In all, it was 6-2 for a 43-13 (76.8%) record heading into the Elite Eight.

My other entry, which you can see by clicking here, used score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

In the Sweet Sixteen round of the tournament, it posted a 3-5 record (2-1 when both expected teams played, 1-3 when only one of the expected teams played, and 0-1 in the game where neither projected team made it). The complete ledger for the first three rounds is 39-17 (69.6%). Only 1 of the projected Final Four remains. As stated previously, it is becoming obvious that this model is far more applicable to the college football domain.

Though the bracket had to project the winners of each first round game and then the winners of all projected match-ups throughout the tournament prior to the first tip off, I have continued to apply the algorithm to the actual match-ups to see how it performs throughout the tournament. After three rounds, it is 43-13 (76.8%) having gone 6-2 in the Sweet Sixteen.

Of the 13 incorrect picks thus far, 3 of them were in games projected to be decided by a single point. Another was projected to be decided by just 2 points, one was projected to be a 5-point game, and two others were projected to be 7-point deltas.

To date, I have successfully predicted the exact score of BYU (1st round), North Dakota State (1st round), and Arizona State (2nd round). I have been within 5 points for 37 teams (33.0%), and within 10 points for 69 teams (61.6%). I've been within 20 points for 99 teams (88.4%).

I have predicted the exact spread for the Washington/Mississippi State game, the Michigan State/USC game, and the Purdue/Washington game. I have been within 5 points for 13 games (23.2%), and within 10 points for 26 games (46.4%). I was within 20 points for 46 games (82.1%).

Also See:
03/25: Score Predictions: Sweet Sixteen
03/23: Bracket Predictions Update: Round 2
03/21: Score Predictions: Second Round
03/21: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 2
03/20: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 2
03/20: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 1
03/18: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 1
03/18: Bracket Predictions

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Sweet Sixteen

The following projected results for the Sweet Sixteen round of the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Pittsburgh over Xavier, 75-64

Duke over Villanova, 79-66

North Carolina over Gonzaga, 92-62

Syracuse over Oklahoma, 77-72

Louisville over Arizona, 73-66

Michigan State over Kansas, 70-69

Connecticut over Purdue, 68-67

Missouri over Memphis, 72-68

Bracket Predictions Update: Round 2

Over at ESPN.com, I have submitted an entry in their Tournament Challenge contest. In this contest, you must predict the winner for each of the 63 games in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament and then predict the final score in the championship game.

The entry that simply picked the team with the higher Rogers Poll rank to win each game went 11-5 on the first day and 12-4 on the second day for a 23-9 record in the first round. In the second round, it was 7-1 in games where both expected teams met, 7-0 in games where only one of the expected teams played, and there was one game where neither of the expected teams were there. In all, it was 23-9 in the first round and 14-2 in the second round for a 37-11 (77.1%) record heading into the Sweet Sixteen. This entry is currently at the 88.87% percentile on ESPN.com.

My other entry, which you can see by clicking here, used score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

In the second round of the tournament, I posted a 10-6 record. The complete ledger for the first two rounds was 36-12 (75.0%). Only 5 of the projected Elite Eight, 3 of the projected Final Four, and 1 of the projected Championship Game participants remain. It is becoming obvious that this model is far more applicable to the college football domain.

Though the bracket had to project the winners of each first round game and then the winners of all projected match-ups throughout the tournament prior to the first tip off, I have continued to apply the algorithm to the actual match-ups to see how it performs throughout the tournament. After two rounds, it is 37-11 (77.1%) having gone 11-5 in the second round.

Of the 11 incorrect picks thus far, 3 of them were in games projected to be decided by a single point. Another was projected to be decided by just 2 points, and two others were projected to be 7-point deltas.

To date, I have successfully predicted the exact score of BYU (1st round), North Dakota State (1st round), and Arizona State (2nd round). I have been within 5 points for 34 teams (35.4%), and within 10 points for 61 teams (63.5%). I've been within 20 points for 87 teams (90.6%).

I have predicted the exact spread for the Washington/Mississippi State game, the Michigan State/USC game, and the Purdue/Washington game. I have been within 5 points for 12 games (25.0%), and within 10 points for 22 games (45.8%). I was within 20 points for 40 games (83.3%).

Also See:
03/21: Score Predictions: Second Round
03/21: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 2
03/20: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 2
03/20: Bracket Predictions Update: Day 1
03/18: Score Predictions: First Round, Day 1
03/18: Bracket Predictions

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Second Round

The following projected results for the second round of the 2009 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength (per the RogersPoll.com method).

This method proved to be quite successful in predicting bowl games this past season. This is the first time I have attempted to apply it to the college basketball domain.

Villanova over UCLA, 74-67

Duke over Texas, 78-64

North Carolina over LSU, 87-66

Gonzaga over Western Kentucky, 77-63

Syracuse over Arizona State, 74-67

Michigan over Oklahoma, 70-69

Connecticut over Texas A&M, 75-65

Purdue over Washington, 70-68

Maryland over Memphis, 74-63

Oklahoma State over Pittsburgh, 78-71

Wisconsin over Xavier, 68-61

Louisville over Siena, 85-59

Arizona over Cleveland State, 84-54

Kansas over Dayton, 82-57

Michigan State over USC, 69-64

Marquette over Missouri, 74-73