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Thirteen of the preseason Top 25 appeared in the final Top 25. Every member of the preseason Top 25 finished ranked among the top 50. Additionally, 44 teams ranked in the preseason top 50 went on to appear in bowl games.
Using the preseason rankings as a gauge for expectations, deltas between final rank and preseason rank were used to determine the year's biggest surprises and disappointments.
Top 10 Surprises of 2009
The following ten schools produced the biggest surprises of the 2009 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was significantly higher than their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.1. Middle Tennessee (10-3): The Blue Raiders ended the 2008 season with a 5-7 record, ranking them #91 nationally and sixth in the Sun Belt. On the surface, it did not appear as if MTSU was poised for much of a rebound in 2009 as they were ranked #97 in the preseason. However, Rick Stockstill's crew was able to manufacture a 10-win season, the first in Sun Belt conference history, that included a New Orleans Bowl victory over Southern Miss and a final Top 25 ranking (#23). MTSU's only losses this season were on the road to ACC Atlantic champion, Clemson, on the road to Sun Belt champion, Troy, and against Mississippi State of the SEC.
2. Idaho (8-5): Coach Rob Akey has finally built some momentum in Moscow after their decade of darkness, elevating their 2-10 performance in 2008 to an 8-5 ledger in 2009 that included a Humanitarian Bowl victory over Bowling Green. Preseason rank: #117. Final rank: #56.
3. Central Michigan (12-2): The Chippewas posted a modest 8-5 record last season that included a Motor City Bowl loss to FAU. In the preseason, it appeared as if CMU might take a step back in '09. That was certainly not the case as Butch Jones led them to a stellar 12-2 record, the MAC title, and a New Orleans Bowl victory over Sun Belt champion, Troy. Preseason rank: #71. Final rank: #13.
4. SMU (8-5): Apparently it was only a matter of time before June Jones got things humming in Dallas. The Mustangs bowl drought that had dated back to 1984 ended with a trip to the Hawai'i Bowl. Not only that, but SMU routed Nevada, 45-10, giving them their fifth bowl win in program history. Preseason rank: #110. Final rank: #55.
5. Iowa State (7-6): Oddly enough, after a 5-19 stint in Ames, Gene Chizik was able to parlay that experience into the head coaching job at Auburn. Perhaps that was best for the Cyclones as their new head coach, Paul Rhoads, took them to a bowl game (first since '05) and won it (first since '04). Preseason rank: #116. Final rank: #62.
6. UCF (8-5): So continues the up-and-down tenure of George O'Leary in Orlando. Under him, the Knights went without a win ('04), then won C-USA East (8-5), then 4-8, then won C-USA (10-4), then 4-8, and back to a winning season in '09 to include their third bowl appearance in program history (St. Pete Bowl vs. Rutgers). Preseason rank: #101. Final rank: #53.
7. Ohio (9-5): In Frank Solich's fifth year with the Bobcats, they had a chance to post their first 10-win season since 1968 before losing the Motor City Bowl. Falling short of that 10-win plateau should not be viewed as a disppointment, especially following a 4-8 season in 2008. Preseason rank: #94. Final rank: #52.
8. Navy (10-4): The Middies were a surprise team last year, going 8-5 under first year coach Ken Niumatalolo. Despite forecasts of a slight step back this year, Navy surged with a 10-win season and a blowout victory over Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Preseason rank: #66. Final rank: #26.
9. Wyoming (7-6): The Cowboys' situation this year is almost a mirror image of Colorado State last year. A first-year head coach (Dave Christensen) inherited a Mountain West team with a losing record (4-8) and led them to a victory in the New Mexico Bowl, ensuring a winning season. Preseason rank: #104. Final rank: #64.
10. Mississippi State (5-7): Though first year head coach Dan Mullen did miss a bowl game, he led downtrodden MSU to a victory in the Egg Bowl over arch-rival Ole Miss and played Florida, LSU, and Houston close. Things are looking up in Starkville. Preseason rank: #103. Final rank: #65.
Seven of the programs noted above made a bowl game after missing one last year. Four of the programs were guided by first year head coaches and two more were led by second year coaches.
Top 10 Disappointments of 2009
The following ten schools produced the biggest disappointments of the 2009 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was significantly lower than their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.1. Ball State (2-10): The Cardinals were one of the big surprises in college football last season as they jumped out to a 12-0 start before losing the MAC Championship and GMAC Bowl. They then lost head coach Brady Hoke to San Diego State. Given that and the loss of some key talent, a slip was expected (preseason rank #55). Surprisingly, Ball State didn't just take a step back, they fell off the cliff as Stan Parrish's first year ended with 2 wins and a #118 ranking.
2. Vanderbilt (2-10): It had been 26 years since Vandy last appeared in a bowl, but last year they finally did it again (Music City Bowl). Furthermore, they won it (defeating Boston College). That gave the Commodores a 7-6 record and a top 50 finish (#49) last season. This year, they were expected to continue building momentum (preseason #45), but they slipped back to familiar territory (#108 final ranking). It may now be another 26 years before they taste a bowl.
3. Illinois (3-9): Last year, Ron Zook's squad fell from a Rose Bowl appearance to missing a bowl (5-7, #76). This season, with quite a bit of returning talent, they were expected to at least return to a bowl game (preseason #48). Instead, they continued to fall (final #103) and that Rose Bowl berth seems so very long ago. I was amazed the Illini didn't make a coaching change.
4. Tulsa (5-7): The Golden Hurricane finished last season with 11-wins (#26), won the GMAC Bowl, and appeared in the C-USA championship game for the second straight season (and third time in four years). In the off-season, they lost their offensive coordinator and apparently the key to their success. Tulsa followed up a preseason rank of #36 with a final rank of #85, missing the postseason entirely.
5. Maryland (2-10): The Terps were an 8-win team last year (#44 final ranking) and were expected to at least compete for a bowl game this year (preseason #65). However, "The Fridge" felt the hot seat all year long and watched his team stumble to a 2-win season that included a narrow overtime victory over James Madison of the FCS (#109 final ranking). Much like Illinois, I was shocked that no change was made in College Park.
6. Rice (2-10): We all knew that the Owls over-achieved big time last year with their 10-win season and bowl victory. Still, a preseason rank of #67 was a modest projection that they would still contend for a bowl game directly on the heels of their most successful season in almost 50 years. Instead, Rice struggled all year and claimed just two wins (both at home, both by single digits, both against teams with losing records), finishing #110.
7. Kansas* (5-7): One year removed from their Orange Bowl victory, the Jayhawks posted an 8-win season last year (#36 final ranking). With key returning talent, they were expected to maintain or better that this year (#33 preseason). Things looked good at first as they opened 5-0. However, it was all downhill from there as seven straight losses followed (final rank #75).
8. Michigan State (6-7): Mark Dantonio had done good things for the Spartans in his short time at East Lansing. Last year, he led them to a 9-4 record and a #20 final ranking. They were expected to be a fringe Top 25 team this year (#27 preseason). However, they lost to a MAC school during their 1-3 start and finished with a losing record after dropping the Alamo Bowl (#69 final rank).
9. Virginia* (3-9): Expectations weren't even that high in Charlottesville for what ended up being Al Groh's final season (preseason #63). They were, however, expected to be in bowl contention after a narrow miss in 2008 (5-7, #72). Instead, the Cavs ended 3-9 with a final ranking of #102. The most notable of those nine losses was at home to William & Mary of the FCS in the opening week.
10. Western Michigan (5-7): Bill Cubit lead the Broncos to a 9-4 season last year (#37) and returned some key talent from that team, including QB Tim Hiller. A preseason rank of #58 indicated an expectation for another bowl game and competing for the MAC West title. Instead, they were 0-3 against the Big Ten, 0-3 against bowl teams, and suffered a losing season against the easiest ranked schedule in the FBS. Final rank: #96.
* Indicates that a head coaching change was made.
Only Kansas and Virginia from the list above made coaching changes after the season. However, it did shock many that Maryland and Illinois retained their coaches.
Living Up To Expectations
Good or bad, the following eleven schools performed precisely as expected for the 2008 season. That is, their final Rogers Poll ranking was within two spots of their preseason Rogers Poll ranking.Texas (13-1): Preseason #1, Final #2.
Florida (13-1): Preseason #2, Final #3.
TCU (12-1): Preseason #8, Final #6.
Pittsburgh (10-3): Preseason #17, Final #15.
Houston (10-4): Preseason #31, Final #30.
Nevada (8-5): Preseason #51, Final #49.
Kentucky (7-6): Preseason #59, Final #61.
Hawaii (6-7): Preseason #81, Final #81.
Utah State (4-8): Preseason #96, Final #94.
New Mexico State (3-10): Preseason #112, Final #112.
Western Kentucky (0-12): Preseason #120, Final #120.
The biggest surprises and disappointments are interesting to point out on a national level. However, those titles are a little more meaningful when looking at individual conferences. Borrowing from the great Stephen Colbert, we give out tips of the hat and wags of the finger.
Tip-of-the-hat: #14 Georgia Tech (11-3) was 9-4, #33 in 2008 and ranked #32 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #109 Maryland (2-10) was 8-5, #44 in 2008 and ranked #65 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #5 Cincinnati (12-1) was 11-3, #15 in 2008 and ranked #34 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #47 USF (8-5) was 8-5, #43 in 2008 and ranked #30 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #18 Wisconsin (10-3) was 7-6, #58 in 2008 and ranked #50 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #103 Illinois (3-9) was 5-7, #76 in 2008 and ranked #48 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #62 Iowa State (7-6) was 2-10, #112 in 2008 and ranked #116 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #75 Kansas (5-7) was 8-5, #36 in 2008 and ranked #33 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #55 SMU (8-5) was 1-11, #117 in 2008 and ranked #110 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #85 Tulsa (5-7) was 11-3, #26 in 2008 and ranked #36 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #26 Navy (10-4) was 8-5, #46 in 2008 and ranked #66 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #59 Notre Dame (6-6) was 7-6, #53 in 2008 and ranked #43 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #13 Central Michigan (12-2) was 8-5, #52 in 2008 and ranked #71 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #118 Ball State (2-10) was 12-2, #14 in 2008 and ranked #55 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #64 Wyoming (7-6) was 4-8, #102 in 2008 and ranked #104 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #105 Colorado State (3-9) was 7-6, #62 in 2008 and ranked #70 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #71 Washington (5-7) was 0-12, #120 in 2008 and ranked #106 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #46 California (8-5) was 9-4, #24 in 2008 and ranked #20 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #65 Mississippi State (5-7) was 4-8, #96 in 2008 and ranked #103 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #108 Vanderbilt (2-10) was 7-6, #49 in 2008 and ranked #45 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #23 Middle Tennessee (10-3) was 5-7, #91 in 2008 and ranked #97 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #100 Arkansas State (4-8) was 6-6, #71 in 2008 and ranked #82 in the preseason.
Tip-of-the-hat: #56 Idaho (8-5) was 2-10, #116 in 2008 and ranked #117 in the preseason. Wag-of-the-finger: #114 San Jose State (2-10) was 6-6, #78 in 2008 and ranked #98 in the preseason.
