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In addition, I correctly predicted seven of the eight national seeds. Morever, I correctly seeded 54 of the 64 teams (4 teams earned a higher seed, 3 teams earned a lower seed, and 3 teams weren't projected to make the field).
The complete field, as announced by the NCAA, is available here.
There were three disagreements over this year's field as the Selection Committee's decided to reward St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist with at-large berths over LSU, Oregon, and Mercer.
If I could make one change to the Selection Committee's decisions, it would have been to put LSU in and take Dallas Baptist out. The resumes for each of the six are highlighted below for your personal review.
St. John's secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Red Storm finished the season ranked #42 in the Rogers Poll with a 35-20 overall record, including a 21-10 mark against the Big East conference. They were hot down the stretch, 9-3 with an appearance in the Big East tournament championship game. St. John's played the 89th toughest schedule, were 18-2 at home, 11-15 on the road, and 6-3 in neutral site games. They were 1-6 against the Top 50, 9-12 versus the Top 100, and 26-8 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern (2), and Seton Hall (2). They had notable losses against Villanova and Iona.
Jacksonville secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Dolphins finished the season ranked #48 in the Rogers Poll with a 36-22 overall record, including a 21-13 mark against the Atlantic Sun conference. They were a respectable 7-5 down the stretch. Jacksonville played the 72nd toughest schedule, were 20-10 at home, 14-10 on the road, and 2-2 in neutral site games. They were 9-7 against the Top 50, 18-14 versus the Top 100, and 18-8 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Florida, Stetson (2), Georgia Southern, Mercer (3), ETSU (3), and Samford (4). They had notable losses against Lipscomb (2) and South Carolina Upstate.
Dallas Baptist secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Patriots finished the season ranked #35 in the Rogers Poll with a 39-17 overall record as an independent. They were a respectable 8-4 down the stretch. Dallas Baptist played the 205th toughest schedule, were 25-7 at home, 13-9 on the road, and 1-1 in neutral site games. They were 7-4 against the Top 50, 12-8 versus the Top 100, and 27-9 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Oklahoma, Rice, Texas A&M, TCU (2), Oklahoma State, Charlotte (2), and Texas Tech. They had notable losses against Houston Baptist, Seattle, and Washington.
LSU was considered by me to be an at-large lock, but were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. The Tigers finished the season ranked #34 in the Rogers Poll, against the 39th toughest schedule in the nation, with a 36-20 overall record, including a 13-17 ledger against the nation's toughest conference -- the SEC. They were hot down the stretch, winning nine of their last twelve. They were 28-9 at home, 7-11 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites. The Tigers were 6-10 against the Top 50, 12-15 versus the Top 100, and 24-5 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Southern Miss, Cal State Fullerton (3), Georgia, SE Louisiana, Mississippi State (2), Sacred Heart, and Alabama. They had zero notable losses.
Oregon was a bubble team expected to earn a spot in the tournament field. The Ducks , however, were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. Oregon finished the season ranked #74 in the Rogers Poll, against the 35th toughest schedule in the nation, with a 33-26 overall record, including a 12-17 ledger against Pac-10 conference teams. Like LSU, they were 9-3 down the stretch. They were 19-12 at home, 13-14 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites. The Ducks were 11-11 against the Top 50, 17-15 versus the Top 100, and 16-11 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Oregon State (4), Arizona (2), Gonzaga (2), Stanford (2), California, and Wichita State (2). Their only notable losses were to Washington (2).
Mercer fell just shy of an automatic bid as they reached the finals of the Atlantic Sun tournament. The Bears, however, were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. Mercer finished the season ranked #38 in the Rogers Poll, against the 151st toughest schedule in the nation, with a 39-20 overall record, including a 20-14 ledger against Atlantic Sun conference teams. Like LSU and Oregon, they were also hot down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 12. They were 20-9 at home, 16-9 on the road, and 3-2 at neutral sites. The Bobcats were 6-7 against the Top 50, 16-15 versus the Top 100, and 23-5 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Georgia Tech (2), Georgia Southern, Jacksonville (2), ETSU (2), and Georgia. They had zero notable losses.
All 30 teams listed as auto-bids received automatic berths to the NCAA tournament. In addition, 22 of the 23 teams I listed as "locks" were awarded at-large berths (LSU was the lone exception). Moreover, 9 of the 11 "bubble" teams that I expected to receive an at-large bid were granted one (Oregon and Mercer were the exceptions). The three teams that made the field without appearing in my final projections were St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist. All three were listed among my first 16 out (St. John's and Jacksonville were bubble teams; Dallas Baptist was on miracle watch)With regards to the eight national seeds, I accurately projected seven of them. Rice, a projected #1 seed, was awarded a national seed and Texas A&M, a projected national seed, had to settle for a #1 seed.
With regards to the regional seedings, I:
- Correctly seeded 16 of the 16 #1 seeds.
- Correctly seeded 13 of the 16 #2 seeds. Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Connecticut were all projected #3 seeds.
- Correctly seeded 10 of the 16 #3 seeds. Coastal Carolina and California were projected #2 seeds, but had to settle for the #3 seeding. Georgia was a projected #4 seed. St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist were not expected to make the field (though Mercer and Oregon were projected as #3 seeds).
- Correctly seeded 15 of the 16 #4 seeds. Oral Roberts was projected as a #3 seed.
