Rogers Poll: Blog

2012 Tournament Watch

NCAA Basketball 2011-2012 Season

2011-12-19T10:48:00.000-08:00

The Connecticut Huskies will defend their NCAA national championship while the Kansas Jayhawks will defend their 2-time Rogers Poll championship in the 2011-12 campaign. The first Rogers Poll for the season will be released on January 2nd.

The poll will be released every Monday from then through the conclusion of conference tournaments. There will be a poll release prior to the Sweet Sixteen, prior to the Final Four, and then the final poll of the season will be released once the NCAA tournament is complete.

Conference Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule Rankings will be released concurrently with the Rogers Poll throughout the season. Tournament Watches will be provided every week beginning in January as well.

In preparation for the upcoming poll, below is a list of Division I membership changes for the 2011-12 season:

Nebraska joins the Big Ten, leaving the Big XII
Colorado joins the Pac-12, leaving the Big XII
Utah joins the Pac-12, leaving the Mountain West
BYU joins the WCC, leaving the Mountain West
Boise State joins the Mountain West, leaving the WAC
Campbell joins the Big South, leaving the A-Sun
South Dakota joins the Summit, leaving the Great West
NC Central and Savannah State join the MEAC, leaving the Independents
Centenary drops from the Division I ranks, leaving the Summit
Nebraska Omaha joins the Division I ranks as an Independent

The relatively new Great West conference will not receive an automatic bid to the NCAA basketball tournament. It will, however, receive an auto-bid to the CIT postseason tournament.

Check out the final rankings for the 2010-11 season here.

Redux: EA Sports NCAA Football 12 Custom Conferences

2011-09-07T07:56:00.000-07:00

I’ve discovered that the originally proposed alignment, inclusive of four super conferences, has two major flaws associated with its implementation in EA Sports NCAA Football 12.

Even though the game will allow you to specify only 4 BCS conferences (the super conferences), it doesn't remove the maximum of 2 schools per conference participating in BCS games. As such, given that there are 10 BCS game slots to fill, the other conferences are guaranteed 2 spots a year.
For any league with fewer than 8 members, the scheduling logic is so bad in the game that they will play 2+ FCS teams each season.

My suggestion to fix this is to make 5 BCS leagues (14 teams each), inclusive of the top 70 teams in the report card. There will remain two independents (Army and Navy). The remaining 48 teams will be split, 8 teams each, to the six non-BCS conferences.

The five BCS leagues will be SEC (auto birth in Sugar Bowl), ACC (auto birth in Orange Bowl), Big XII (auto birth in Fiesta Bowl), Big Ten (auto birth in Rose Bowl), and Pac-12 (auto birth in Rose Bowl).

Geography and competitiveness were the two driving factors in placement for each team. The lone exception to the geography consideration is C-USA, which houses a collection of non-BCS private schools. The term non-BCS, as used in the bullet list below, is not inclusive of C-USA or Independent teams.

The SEC houses all BCS teams in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi.
The ACC houses all BCS teams in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and North Carolina. Though there were no qualifying teams, the states of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, and Rhode Island were also considered in this footprint.
The state of South Carolina is split (Clemson - ACC, South Carolina - SEC).
The Big Ten houses all BCS teams in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Kentucky.
The Big XII houses all BCS teams in Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Though there were no qualifying teams, the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and New Mexico were also considered in this footprint.
The Pac-12 houses all BCS teams in Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona. Though there were no qualifying teams, the states of Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, and Nevada were also considered in this footprint.

The WAC houses all non-BCS teams in the Pac-12 footprint.
The Mountain West houses all non-BCS teams in the Big XII footprint, save UL Monroe and UL Lafayette.
The Sun Belt houses all non-BCS teams in the SEC footprint, also including UL Monroe and UL Lafayette from adjacent Louisiana.
The Big East houses all non-BCS teams in the ACC footprint, also including five schools from adjacent Ohio.
The MAC houses all non-BCS teams in the Big Ten footprint, save five schools in Ohio.

The BCS conferences are relatively equal (average rank in the conferences ranges from 41.29, ACC, to 30.36, SEC). The other three are: Big XII (34.07), Big Ten (35.14), and Pac-12 (37.29).

The non-BCS conferences are also relatively equal (average rank in the conferences ranges from 99.5, WAC, to 90.25, C-USA). The other four are: Mountain West (96), Sun Belt (96.38), Big East (97), and MAC (97.75).

This format allows for clear promotion and relegation guidelines. At specific points in time, I’d suggest once every five seasons, the following steps can be taken to ensure that the top teams are in the five BCS leagues.

All programs in BCS leagues with prestige ratings under 3-stars are under consideration for relegation
Any program in BCS leagues with a prestige rating of 1-star are guaranteed relegation
All programs in non-BCS leagues or Independents with prestige ratings at or above 3-stars are under consideration for promotion
Any program in non-BCS leagues or Independents with a prestige rating of at least 5-stars is guaranteed promotion
Private schools in BCS leagues to be relegated are to be relegated to C-USA or Independents
Private schools in C-USA to be promoted are to be promoted to the BCS league that covers their geographic footprint
Public schools to be relegated/promoted will occur between league pairings as identified: SEC <--> Sun Belt, Big XII <--> Mountain West, Big Ten <--> MAC, Pac-12 <--> WAC, ACC <--> Big East

The proposed conferences, listing members in order of program strength rank, are now:

SEC: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida State, South Carolina, USF, Georgia Tech, Miami, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, UCF, Southern Miss
Big XII: Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas, Air Force, Kansas State, Colorado, Tulsa
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Missouri, Iowa, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Illinois, Cincinnati, Purdue, Minnesota, Louisville, Iowa State
Pac-12: USC, Oregon, BYU, Utah, California, Boise State, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington, Stanford, Hawaii, Fresno State
ACC: Penn State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, West Virginia, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, NC State, Boston College, East Carolina, Connecticut, Rutgers, Virginia, Maryland, Wake Forest
C-USA: Northwestern, Baylor, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Duke, Rice, SMU, Tulane
Mountain West: Houston, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico, Colorado State, Arkansas State, New Mexico State, North Texas
Sun Belt: Troy, Middle Tennessee, FAU, UL Monroe, Memphis, UL Lafayette, UAB, FIU
Big East: Temple, Marshall, Ohio, Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, Kent State, Akron
MAC: Indiana, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Miami Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky
WAC: Nevada, San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Washington State, San Jose State, Utah State, Idaho

Private schools, inclusive of the three military academies, are listed below along with their proposed conference alignment. Each C-USA and Independent school's BCS conference footprint is noted in parenthesis.

C-USA: Northwestern (Big Ten), Baylor (Big XII), Syracuse (ACC), Vanderbilt (SEC), Duke (ACC), Rice (Big XII), SMU (Big XII), Tulane (Big XII)
SEC: Miami
Big XII: Tulsa, TCU, Air Force
Big Ten: Notre Dame
Pac-12: USC, BYU, Stanford
ACC: Wake Forest, Boston College
Independents: Army (ACC), Navy (ACC)

Preseason Bowl Projections

2011-08-07T09:50:00.001-07:00

Preseason bowl projections, complete with anticipated participants for all 35 bowl games, is now available on the Rogers Poll Facebook page under the "Bowl Projections" tab.

You will need a Facebook login to access the projections. Please take time to "Like" Rogers Poll on Facebook. The more participation there is, the more exclusive content we will make available.

The top two ranked teams in the preseason Rogers Poll, Alabama and Boise State, project to play in the BCS National Championship game in New Orleans.

Kenneth Massey's Initial 2011 Preseason Ranking Comparison

2011-08-01T14:30:00.000-07:00

Kenneth Massey has released his initial 2011 ranking comparison, building a consensus from 15 different rankings made available on or before August 1st.

The initial rating systems include Kenneth Massey, Sonny Moore, the Compughter Ratings, James Howell, and the Rogers Poll, among others.

The consensus top ten among has Boise State on top, followed by Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Stanford, LSU, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Ohio State, and Arkansas.

The remainder of the initial consensus top 25 includes TCU, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Auburn, Notre Dame, Missouri, Florida, USC, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Nevada, and NC State.

More systems will be added as their preseason rankings become available.

EA Sports NCAA Football 12 Custom Conferences

2011-07-13T12:30:00.000-07:00

I received several e-mails from readers that essentially asked me to propose custom conferences for dynasties in the recently released NCAA Football 12 from EA Sports.

To do this, I used the 2011 Annual Program Health Report Cards. The report cards leverage the Rogers Poll scores and average attendance data for each school over the last 4 years, counted both attendance and performance equally, and then ranked all schools, 1-120, accordingly.

The game restricts us to keeping all 120 schools, keeping every conference in existence, and having a minimum of 4 schools per conference (max of 16). Independents have to have at least one school.

I decided to do the following for conferences:

Top 4 leagues will be the BCS leagues and will have 16 schools each (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12)
The former BCS league with an extensive bowl line-up, the Big XII, will have 12 teams to ensure a championship game
The Big East, C-USA, and Mountain West will have 9 schools each to remain viable conferences
The WAC, MAC, and Sun Belt will house 5 schools each
Army and Navy will be the Independents

For sorting the 118 schools (not inclusive of Army/Navy) into these conferences:

The top 64 schools in the rankings earn BCS status and will be sorted into the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12.
The top 12 schools outside the BCS (#65-76) will be housed in the Big XII.
The next 27 schools (#77-103) will be sorted into the Mountain West (westernmost 9), Big East (northernmost 9 of the eastern schools), and Conference USA (southernmost 9 of the eastern schools).
The bottom 15 schools (#104-118) will be sorted into the WAC, MAC, and Sun Belt based on current affiliation and geography.

For leagues 12 members or larger (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big XII), teams are sorted into two divisions of equal size. To create these divisions, I followed two guiding principles:

Divisions should be roughly equivalent with respect to average program strength, per the 2011 Annual Program Health Report Cards. To achieve this, the average program health score among teams in each division (on a 2,000 point scale) must be within 30 points of one another (within 1.5%).
For schools maintaining their actual conference affiliation, they should remain in the same existing division unless it would ultimately cause a violation of the first principle or geographically violate geography-based divisions (e.g. East/West).

The thoughts behind the divisions for the five leagues are as follows:

The SEC would maintain its existing geographic East/West format. Given that the six new members are the westernmost, four existing West members (Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State) move to the East. After doing this, the division program health score averages were within 26.54 points of one another.
The Big Ten would maintain its existing Leaders/Legends format. The nine existing Big Ten members would retain their existing division homes. The 3 new schools from the Big East were placed in the Leaders division to keep them together and ensure that Cincinnati/Ohio State and Pittsburgh/Penn State are together. The 3 new schools from the Big XII were placed in the Legends division to keep them together with each other and former cohort, Nebraska. Notre Dame was placed in the Legends division to keep them together with Michigan, a chief rival. After doing this, the division program health score averages were within 22.22 points of one another.
The ACC would maintain its existing Atlantic/Coastal format. The ten existing ACC members would retain their existing division homes. The six new members were thought of in pairs (USF/UCF, Rutgers/Connecticut, ECU/South Carolina). In keeping with the ACC paradigm of splitting up schools (North Carolina schools split; Florida schools split), the new pairs were split as well. After doing this, the division program health score averages were within 4.67 points of one another.
The Pac-12 could not maintain a true North/South geographic format and be competitively equivalent. Due to this, other geographic formats were investigated. Forming two northwest-southeast swaths provided this. The southern swath, Southwest, encompasses California and Arizona while bringing in Hawaii. The northern swath, Mountain, encompasses Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. After doing this, the division program health score averages were within 19.98 points of one another.
The Big XII was split into an East/West geographic format to accommodate its inherent national constituency (North Carolina to Nevada). After pulling the easternmost six schools into the East and pulling the westernmost six schools into the West, the division program health score averages were within 4.73 points of one another.

The proposed conferences are thus:

SEC
East: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
West: Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU

Big Ten
Leaders: Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Legends: Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, Missouri, Iowa, Notre Dame, Kansas, Kansas State

ACC
Atlantic: Florida State, Clemson, USF, NC State, Boston College, East Carolina, Rutgers, Maryland
Coastal: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, Connecticut, UCF, Virginia

Pac-12
Southwest: USC, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Hawaii, Fresno State
Mountain: Oregon, BYU, Utah, Boise State, Oregon State, Washington, Air Force, Colorado

Big XII
East: Louisville, Wake Forest, Southern Miss, Northwestern, Troy, Indiana
West: Minnesota, Tulsa, Iowa State, Houston, Nevada, Baylor

Big East
Central Michigan, Syracuse, Temple, Ohio, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Toledo, Ball State

Mountain West
UTEP, San Diego State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, Arkansas State, Rice, SMU

Conference USA
Vanderbilt, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, FAU, UL Monroe, Duke, Memphis, UL Lafayette

Sun Belt
UAB, Tulane, FIU, North Texas, Western Kentucky

MAC
Buffalo, Miami Ohio, Kent State, Akron, Eastern Michigan

WAC
Washington State, San Jose State, Utah State, Idaho, New Mexico State

Independents
Army, Navy

Rogers Poll Added To 2011 Stassen Preseason Consensus

2011-07-05T10:10:00.000-07:00

Stassen.com has been measuring preseason consensus, prediction accuracy, and overrated/underrated teams based on major college football publications and end-of-season results since 1993. Notable publications that are tracked include Phil Steele, Athlon, The Sporting News, Lindy's, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and College Football News, among others.

The Rogers Poll was first added to this list in 2010 and is listed again this year. Head over to the 2011 consensus to see how my projected conference standings and national Top 25 compare to the others. Be sure to check back at the end of the season to see how the Rogers Poll fared with regards to accuracy.

Preseason College Football Poll Released

2011-07-03T07:46:00.000-07:00

The preseason Rogers Poll for the 2011 college football season has been released. Alabama appears atop the rankings, poised to capture their second national championship in three years. Alabama returns 17 starters and 53 letter winners in Nick Saban's fifth season as the head coach. Saban inherited a 6-7 team and has produced a 36-5 overall record in the past three years.

Boise State, Florida State, Missouri, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Oregon, and Oklahoma State round out the preseason top ten.

To view projected conference champions and compare the Rogers Poll preseason rankings and projections to the other major publications, including Phil Steele, head over to Stassen.com.

For complete details, visit the main NCAA Football page.

Annual Program Health Report Cards

2011-07-02T08:28:00.000-07:00

Each of the 120 FBS programs were evaluated for program health. To calculate program health, the combined total of the average of the final Rogers Poll score over the last four seasons and the average attendance over the last four seasons (divided by 100 to satisfy the nominal 0-1000 scale) is calculated for each team.

Every program is then ranked based on that combined score to fit a normal distribution. An 'A' grade is given to the Top 15. Numbers 16-40 earn a 'B', 41-80 a 'C', 81-105 a 'D', and 106-120 a 'F'.

A report, complete with all historical data and aggregates, is available here (PDF format). In previous years, the report cards were based solely on performance (excluded attendance). To review last year's report cards (2006-2009), go here.

While Ohio State rates as the healthiest individual program, The SEC owns the healthiest constituency. The MAC owns the weakest group in terms of GPA while the Sun Belt owns the weakest group in terms of average rank. Every BCS AQ conference, save the Big East, had at least one 'A' grade. There were no 'A'-graded programs in non-AQ leagues; in fact there were only two 'B'-graded programs (Boise State and TCU, both in the Mountain West). The Independents posted two 'B' grades, BYU and Notre Dame. Every league boasted at least one 'C'-graded program.

The Pac-12 and the ACC were the only BCS AQ conferences to house teams with either a 'D' or 'F' graded program (Washington State and Duke, respectively). The SEC had the most 'A' grades with six. The MAC had the most 'F' grades with five. A complete breakdown follows.

SEC (3.25 GPA, 24.75 Avg. Rank)
A 3. Alabama
A 5. Florida
A 6. LSU
A 9. Georgia
A 11. Tennessee
A 12. Auburn
B 20. South Carolina
B 27. Arkansas
B 29. Kentucky
C 47. Ole Miss
C 48. Mississippi State
C 80. Vanderbilt

Big Ten (3.00 GPA, 32.58 Avg. Rank)
A 1. Ohio State
A 2. Penn State
A 10. Michigan
A 13. Nebraska
A 14. Wisconsin
B 18. Michigan State
B 22. Iowa
C 41. Illinois
C 56. Purdue
C 66. Minnesota
C 72. Northwestern
C 76. Indiana

Big XII (2.80 GPA, 37.90 Avg. Rank)
A 4. Texas
A 7. Oklahoma
B 21. Missouri
B 24. Texas A&M
B 30. Texas Tech
B 32. Oklahoma State
C 50. Kansas
C 64. Kansas State
C 70. Iowa State
C 77. Baylor

Pac-12 (2.42 GPA, 43.00 Avg. Rank)
A 8. USC
B 17. Oregon
B 28. Utah
B 31. California
B 35. UCLA
B 39. Arizona
C 42. Oregon State
C 43. Arizona State
C 45. Washington
C 57. Stanford
C 65. Colorado
F 106. Washington State

ACC (2.42 GPA, 46.25 Avg. Rank)
A 15. Virginia Tech
B 16. Florida State
B 19. Clemson
B 36. North Carolina
B 40. Georgia Tech
C 44. NC State
C 46. Miami
C 49. Boston College
C 60. Virginia
C 61. Maryland
C 69. Wake Forest
D 100. Duke

Big East (2.38 GPA, 51.00 Avg. Rank)
B 26. West Virginia
B 37. Pittsburgh
B 38. USF
C 52. Cincinnati
C 54. Connecticut
C 55. Rutgers
C 67. Louisville
C 79. Syracuse

Independents (2.25 GPA, 49.75 Avg. Rank)
B 23. BYU
B 25. Notre Dame
C 62. Navy
D 89. Army

Mountain West (1.63 GPA, 73.00 Avg. Rank)
B 33. Boise State
B 34. TCU
C 53. Air Force
D 83. San Diego State
D 93. New Mexico
D 94. Wyoming
D 96. Colorado State
D 98. UNLV

C-USA (1.25 GPA, 84.25 Avg. Rank)
C 51. East Carolina
C 59. UCF
C 68. Tulsa
C 71. Southern Miss
C 74. Houston
D 81. UTEP
D 84. Marshall
D 101. Memphis
D 102. Rice
D 103. SMU
F 108. UAB
F 109. Tulane

WAC (0.88 GPA, 92.88 Avg. Rank)
C 58. Hawaii
C 63. Fresno State
C 75. Nevada
D 90. Louisiana Tech
F 112. San Jose State
F 113. Utah State
F 115. Idaho
F 117. New Mexico State

Sun Belt (0.78 GPA, 99.89 Avg. Rank)
C 73. Troy
D 85. Middle Tennessee
D 91. FAU
D 97. UL Monroe
D 99. Arkansas State
D 105. UL Lafayette
F 111. FIU
F 118. North Texas
F 120. Western Kentucky

MAC (0.69 GPA, 98.31 Avg. Rank)
C 78. Central Michigan
D 82. Temple
D 86. Ohio
D 87. Western Michigan
D 88. Northern Illinois
D 92. Bowling Green
D 95. Toledo
D 104. Ball State
F 107. Buffalo
F 110. Miami (Ohio)
F 114. Kent State
F 116. Akron
F 119. Eastern Michigan

2011 College Football Preseason Poll

2011-06-19T00:18:00.000-07:00

The preseason college football poll is ready to go. I will release it (along with the preseason conference power rankings and the projected order of finish for each conference) on July 1st, after the completion of the College World Series.

Until then, I will be counting down the top 15 on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/RogersPoll.

95% Success Predicting NCAA Championship Field

2011-06-04T11:17:00.000-07:00

Based on my final NCAA Regional projections, I correctly predicted 61 of the 64 tournament teams (95%), which included the accurate selection of 31 of the 34 at-large teams (91%). Over the past two years, I have correctly forecast 124 of the 128 tournament teams (97%).

In addition, I correctly predicted seven of the eight national seeds. Morever, I correctly seeded 54 of the 64 teams (4 teams earned a higher seed, 3 teams earned a lower seed, and 3 teams weren't projected to make the field).

The complete field, as announced by the NCAA, is available here.

There were three disagreements over this year's field as the Selection Committee's decided to reward St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist with at-large berths over LSU, Oregon, and Mercer.

If I could make one change to the Selection Committee's decisions, it would have been to put LSU in and take Dallas Baptist out. The resumes for each of the six are highlighted below for your personal review.

St. John's secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Red Storm finished the season ranked #42 in the Rogers Poll with a 35-20 overall record, including a 21-10 mark against the Big East conference. They were hot down the stretch, 9-3 with an appearance in the Big East tournament championship game. St. John's played the 89th toughest schedule, were 18-2 at home, 11-15 on the road, and 6-3 in neutral site games. They were 1-6 against the Top 50, 9-12 versus the Top 100, and 26-8 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern (2), and Seton Hall (2). They had notable losses against Villanova and Iona.

Jacksonville secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Dolphins finished the season ranked #48 in the Rogers Poll with a 36-22 overall record, including a 21-13 mark against the Atlantic Sun conference. They were a respectable 7-5 down the stretch. Jacksonville played the 72nd toughest schedule, were 20-10 at home, 14-10 on the road, and 2-2 in neutral site games. They were 9-7 against the Top 50, 18-14 versus the Top 100, and 18-8 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Florida, Stetson (2), Georgia Southern, Mercer (3), ETSU (3), and Samford (4). They had notable losses against Lipscomb (2) and South Carolina Upstate.

Dallas Baptist secured an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament via the selection committee. I, however, did not project them to make the field. The Patriots finished the season ranked #35 in the Rogers Poll with a 39-17 overall record as an independent. They were a respectable 8-4 down the stretch. Dallas Baptist played the 205th toughest schedule, were 25-7 at home, 13-9 on the road, and 1-1 in neutral site games. They were 7-4 against the Top 50, 12-8 versus the Top 100, and 27-9 against teams ranked outside of the Top 100. Their key victories came against Oklahoma, Rice, Texas A&M, TCU (2), Oklahoma State, Charlotte (2), and Texas Tech. They had notable losses against Houston Baptist, Seattle, and Washington.

LSU was considered by me to be an at-large lock, but were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. The Tigers finished the season ranked #34 in the Rogers Poll, against the 39th toughest schedule in the nation, with a 36-20 overall record, including a 13-17 ledger against the nation's toughest conference -- the SEC. They were hot down the stretch, winning nine of their last twelve. They were 28-9 at home, 7-11 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites. The Tigers were 6-10 against the Top 50, 12-15 versus the Top 100, and 24-5 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Southern Miss, Cal State Fullerton (3), Georgia, SE Louisiana, Mississippi State (2), Sacred Heart, and Alabama. They had zero notable losses.

Oregon was a bubble team expected to earn a spot in the tournament field. The Ducks , however, were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. Oregon finished the season ranked #74 in the Rogers Poll, against the 35th toughest schedule in the nation, with a 33-26 overall record, including a 12-17 ledger against Pac-10 conference teams. Like LSU, they were 9-3 down the stretch. They were 19-12 at home, 13-14 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites. The Ducks were 11-11 against the Top 50, 17-15 versus the Top 100, and 16-11 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Oregon State (4), Arizona (2), Gonzaga (2), Stanford (2), California, and Wichita State (2). Their only notable losses were to Washington (2).

Mercer fell just shy of an automatic bid as they reached the finals of the Atlantic Sun tournament. The Bears, however, were not rewarded with an at-large berth as I had projected. Mercer finished the season ranked #38 in the Rogers Poll, against the 151st toughest schedule in the nation, with a 39-20 overall record, including a 20-14 ledger against Atlantic Sun conference teams. Like LSU and Oregon, they were also hot down the stretch, winning 9 of their last 12. They were 20-9 at home, 16-9 on the road, and 3-2 at neutral sites. The Bobcats were 6-7 against the Top 50, 16-15 versus the Top 100, and 23-5 against teams outside the Top 100. Their key victories came against Georgia Tech (2), Georgia Southern, Jacksonville (2), ETSU (2), and Georgia. They had zero notable losses.

All 30 teams listed as auto-bids received automatic berths to the NCAA tournament. In addition, 22 of the 23 teams I listed as "locks" were awarded at-large berths (LSU was the lone exception). Moreover, 9 of the 11 "bubble" teams that I expected to receive an at-large bid were granted one (Oregon and Mercer were the exceptions). The three teams that made the field without appearing in my final projections were St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist. All three were listed among my first 16 out (St. John's and Jacksonville were bubble teams; Dallas Baptist was on miracle watch)

With regards to the eight national seeds, I accurately projected seven of them. Rice, a projected #1 seed, was awarded a national seed and Texas A&M, a projected national seed, had to settle for a #1 seed.

With regards to the regional seedings, I:

Correctly seeded 16 of the 16 #1 seeds.
Correctly seeded 13 of the 16 #2 seeds. Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Connecticut were all projected #3 seeds.
Correctly seeded 10 of the 16 #3 seeds. Coastal Carolina and California were projected #2 seeds, but had to settle for the #3 seeding. Georgia was a projected #4 seed. St. John's, Jacksonville, and Dallas Baptist were not expected to make the field (though Mercer and Oregon were projected as #3 seeds).
Correctly seeded 15 of the 16 #4 seeds. Oral Roberts was projected as a #3 seed.

NCAA Regional Projections, 05/30/2011

2011-05-30T00:44:00.000-07:00

NCAA Baseball, 2011 Regional Projections

The following projections are based off of the latest tournament watch data, which takes into account a team's resume at the end of the regular season, and yesterday's NCAA announcement of host sites.

Visit Lateral Sports to find, follow, and watch all the games both leading up to, and during the NCAA tournament for free!

National Seeds:
{1} Virginia, {2} Florida, {3} Vanderbilt, {4} South Carolina, {5} Florida State, {6} Texas A&M, {7} North Carolina, {8} Texas

Charlottesville Regional
1-Virginia (ACC auto)
2-Southern Miss (C-USA)
3-James Madison (CAA auto)
4-Navy (Patriot auto)

Los Angeles Regional
1-UCLA (Pac-10 auto)
2-Oklahoma (Big XII)
3-UC Irvine (Big West)
4-San Francisco (WCC auto)

Gainesville Regional
1-Florida (SEC auto)
2-UCF (C-USA)
3-Mercer (A-Sun)
4-Austin Peay (OVC auto)

Atlanta Regional
1-Georgia Tech (ACC)
2-Stetson (A-Sun)
3-Alabama (SEC)
4-Georgia Southern (SOCON auto)

Nashville Regional
1-Vanderbilt (SEC)
2-Creighton (MVC auto)
3-Connecticut (Big East)
4-Belmont (A-Sun auto)

Fort Worth Regional
1-TCU (Mountain West)
2-Arkansas (SEC)
3-Kansas State (Big XII)
4-Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt auto)

Columbia Regional
1-South Carolina (SEC)
2-Coastal Carolina (Big South auto)
3-NC State (ACC)
4-Manhattan (MAAC auto)

Clemson Regional
1-Clemson (ACC)
2-LSU (SEC)
3-Troy (Sun Belt)
4-Sacred Heart (NEC auto)

Tallahassee Regional
1-Florida State (ACC)
2-FIU (Sun Belt)
3-Mississippi State (SEC)
4-Bethune-Cookman (MEAC auto)

Fullerton Regional
1-Cal State Fullerton (Big West auto)
2-California (Pac-10)
3-Seton Hall (Big East auto)
4-Wright State (Horizon auto)

College Station Regional
1-Texas A&M (Big XII auto)
2-Texas State (Southland auto)
3-Oregon (Pac-10)
4-Georgia (SEC)

Houston Regional
1-Rice (C-USA auto)
2-Stanford (Pac-10)
3-Baylor (Big XII)
4-Princeton (Ivy auto)

Chapel Hill Regional
1-North Carolina (ACC)
2-East Carolina (C-USA)
3-Charlotte (A-10 auto)
4-Maine (AEC auto)

Corvallis Regional
1-Oregon State (Pac-10)
2-Fresno State (WAC auto)
3-Kent State (MAC auto)
4-Illinois (Big Ten auto)

Austin Regional
1-Texas (Big XII)
2-Arizona (Pac-10)
3-Oral Roberts (Summit auto)
4-New Mexico (Mountain West auto)

Tempe Regional
1-Arizona State (Pac-10)
2-Miami (ACC)
3-Oklahoma State (Big XII)
4-Alcorn State (SWAC auto)

If there were a baseball NIT (first 16 out - not in any order):
Stony Brook, Illinois State, St. John's, East Tennessee State, Jacksonville, SE Louisiana, Gonzaga, Elon, Missouri State, FAU, UAB, Long Beach State, Dallas Baptist, Wichita State, Cal State Bakersfield, and Marist.

Multiple Bid Conferences:
SEC (8), ACC (7), Pac-10 (7), Big XII (6), C-USA (4), A-Sun (3), Sun Belt (3), Big West (2), Big East (2), Mountain West (2)

Reference: 98% success predicting NCAA baseball tournament field

A Final Look Inside The Bubble

2011-05-30T00:02:00.001-07:00

Heading into the NCAA announcement of the field of 64, there are 23 teams on the bubble fighting for 11 available at-large spots. Below, a snapshot of each team's resume is presented along with their current projected tournament disposition.

#16 Stony Brook, 42-12 (23-4), AEC

SOS rank: 268
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 14-3, Road: 23-7, Neutral: 5-2
Close Games: 7-2, Best Case: 44-10, Worst Case: 35-19
Top 50: 0-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 15-4, 201+: 24-3
Key Wins: Rhode Island, FAU (2)
Key Losses: New York Tech, Iona
Verdict: out

#22 Connecticut, 41-17 (24-7), Big East

SOS rank: 148
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 17-3, Road: 20-6, Neutral: 4-8
Close Games: 2-6, Best Case: 47-11, Worst Case: 39-19
Top 50: 4-3, 51-100: 5-6, 101-200: 16-7, 201+: 16-1
Key Wins: Rhode Island, College of Charleston, St. John's (3), California
Verdict: in

#23 UC Irvine, 39-16 (16-8), Big West

SOS rank: 131
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 21-4, Road: 15-12, Neutral: 3-0
Close Games: 9-6, Best Case: 45-10, Worst Case: 30-25
Top 50: 3-6, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 17-6, 201+: 16-2
Key Wins: Connecticut, Cal State Fullerton, UCLA, Cal State Bakersfield (2)
Key Losses: Pacific, UC Davis
Verdict: in

#28 Troy, 42-17 (23-10), Sun Belt

SOS rank: 168
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 30-5, Road: 10-11, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 6-7, Best Case: 49-10, Worst Case: 36-23
Top 50: 4-2, 51-100: 8-5, 101-200: 22-8, 201+: 8-2
Key Wins: Southern Miss (2), FIU (2), Samford, FAU (2)
Verdict: in

#38 Mercer, 39-20 (20-14), A-Sun

SOS rank: 151
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 20-9, Road: 16-9, Neutral: 3-2
Close Games: 2-9, Best Case: 48-11, Worst Case: 37-22
Top 50: 6-7, 51-100: 10-8, 101-200: 4-5, 201+: 19-0
Key Wins: Georgia Tech (2), Georgia Southern, Jacksonville (2), East Tennessee State (2), Georgia
Verdict: in

#40 Illinois State, 36-18 (14-10), MVC

SOS rank: 159
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 15-7, Road: 13-8, Neutral: 8-3
Close Games: 8-6, Best Case: 42-12, Worst Case: 28-26
Top 50: 2-3, 51-100: 7-9, 101-200: 12-6, 201+: 14-0
Key Wins: Creighton, Missouri State, Purdue, Miami, Wichita State
Verdict: out

#41 East Tennessee State, 36-21 (17-14), A-Sun

SOS rank: 52
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 21-8, Road: 15-10, Neutral: 0-3
Close Games: 6-3, Best Case: 39-18, Worst Case: 30-27
Top 50: 9-10, 51-100: 5-8, 101-200: 10-3, 201+: 12-0
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Stetson, Mercer, Marist (2), Jacksonville, Manhattan (3), Rider (2), NC State (2)
Verdict: out

#42 St. John's, 35-20 (21-10), Big East

SOS rank: 89
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 18-2, Road: 11-15, Neutral: 6-3
Close Games: 9-6, Best Case: 41-14, Worst Case: 26-29
Top 50: 1-6, 51-100: 8-6, 101-200: 13-6, 201+: 13-2
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern (2), Seton Hall (2)
Key Losses: Villanova, Iona
Verdict: out

#47 Elon, 36-21 (23-9), SOCON

SOS rank: 81
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 19-8, Road: 17-11, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 11-6, Best Case: 42-15, Worst Case: 25-32
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 9-9, 101-200: 13-6, 201+: 14-1
Key Wins: Georgia Southern, Wright State, College of Charleston (2), Samford (2), NC State (2)
Verdict: out

#48 Jacksonville, 36-22 (21-13), A-Sun

SOS rank: 72
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 20-10, Road: 14-10, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 8-5, Best Case: 41-17, Worst Case: 28-30
Top 50: 9-7, 51-100: 9-7, 101-200: 6-5, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Stetson (2), Florida, Georgia Southern, Mercer (3), East Tennessee State (3), Samford (4)
Key Losses: Lipscomb (2), South Carolina Upstate
Verdict: out

#49 Gonzaga, 32-19 (15-6), WCC

SOS rank: 107
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 11-5, Road: 16-11, Neutral: 5-3
Close Games: 3-4, Best Case: 36-15, Worst Case: 29-22
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 1-4, 101-200: 8-9, 201+: 19-1
Key Wins: UC Irvine (3), Texas A&M
Verdict: out

#51 Kansas State, 36-23 (15-16), Big XII

SOS rank: 50
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 23-8, Road: 10-11, Neutral: 3-4
Close Games: 11-12, Best Case: 48-11, Worst Case: 25-34
Top 50: 6-10, 51-100: 9-7, 101-200: 8-6, 201+: 13-0
Key Wins: Oklahoma (4), Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri State, Baylor, Cal State Bakersfield (3), Texas Tech (3), Wichita State
Verdict: in

#55 SE Louisiana, 35-22 (18-16), Southland

SOS rank: 83
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 17-8, Road: 16-12, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 39-18, Worst Case: 31-26
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 9-6, 101-200: 18-11, 201+: 4-0
Key Wins: Texas State, FIU (2), Sacred Heart (2), UCF, Alabama
Verdict: out

#56 NC State, 34-25 (16-17), ACC

SOS rank: 17
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 23-11, Road: 9-11, Neutral: 2-3
Close Games: 6-4, Best Case: 38-21, Worst Case: 28-31
Top 50: 12-18, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 9-5, 201+: 11-0
Key Wins: Coastal Carolina, Clemson (2), Florida State (2), North Carolina (3), Virginia, Elon, East Tennessee State, East Carolina
Verdict: in

#58 Oklahoma State, 35-23 (15-15), Big XII

SOS rank: 44
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 25-7, Road: 5-12, Neutral: 5-4
Close Games: 10-8, Best Case: 43-15, Worst Case: 25-33
Top 50: 5-10, 51-100: 6-7, 101-200: 17-6, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Oklahoma (2), Texas (2), TCU, Kansas State (2), Baylor (2), Texas Tech, Wichita State
Verdict: in

#63 Missouri State, 33-23 (13-11), MVC

SOS rank: 54
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 18-5, Road: 11-13, Neutral: 4-5
Close Games: 10-10, Best Case: 43-13, Worst Case: 23-33
Top 50: 5-10, 51-100: 7-2, 101-200: 13-8, 201+: 8-3
Key Wins: Creighton, Texas State, Oklahoma State (2), Dallas Baptist, Oral Roberts (2), Illinois State (2), Wichita State (2)
Key Losses: Air Force, Washington, Western Illinois
Verdict: out

#69 Alabama, 33-26 (15-20), SEC

SOS rank: 19
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 25-8, Road: 7-12, Neutral: 1-6
Close Games: 8-8, Best Case: 41-18, Worst Case: 25-34
Top 50: 10-15, 51-100: 4-4, 101-200: 13-7, 201+: 6-0
Key Wins: South Carolina, Southern Miss, Arkansas (3), Samford, Mississippi State (2), LSU (2), Troy
Verdict: in

#74 Oregon, 33-26 (12-17), Pac-10

SOS rank: 35
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 19-12, Road: 13-14, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 6-13, Best Case: 46-13, Worst Case: 27-32
Top 50: 11-11, 51-100: 6-4, 101-200: 8-7, 201+: 8-4
Key Wins: Oregon State (4), Arizona (2), Gonzaga (2), Stanford (2), California, Wichita State (2)
Key Losses: Washington (2)
Verdict: in

#83 Georgia, 31-30 (20-16), SEC

SOS rank: 1
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 15-13, Road: 10-15, Neutral: 6-2
Close Games: 11-6, Best Case: 37-24, Worst Case: 20-41
Top 50: 16-20, 51-100: 5-4, 101-200: 10-6, 201+: 0-0
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, South Carolina (2), Florida State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas (2), Florida (2), Mercer, UCLA, Baylor, Mississippi State (3), LSU (2), Alabama
Verdict: in

#88 FAU, 32-25 (17-16), Sun Belt

SOS rank: 46
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 25-9, Road: 7-12, Neutral: 0-4
Close Games: 2-5, Best Case: 37-20, Worst Case: 30-27
Top 50: 9-10, 51-100: 6-6, 101-200: 9-9, 201+: 7-0
Key Wins: FIU (3), Monmouth (3), Stony Brook, Miami (2), Troy (2), UCF, Seton Hall
Verdict: out

#89 Baylor, 29-26 (13-16), Big XII

SOS rank: 8
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 16-14, Road: 11-9, Neutral: 2-3
Close Games: 9-10, Best Case: 39-16, Worst Case: 20-35
Top 50: 8-9, 51-100: 9-10, 101-200: 12-7, 201+: 0-0
Key Wins: Oklahoma (2), Rice, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State (2), FIU, Texas State, Oklahoma State (2), Dallas Baptist, Georgia (2), Oral Roberts (2), Texas Tech
Verdict: in

#113 UAB, 29-28 (10-17), C-USA

SOS rank: 32
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 19-9, Road: 8-14, Neutral: 2-5
Close Games: 8-9, Best Case: 38-19, Worst Case: 21-36
Top 50: 8-12, 51-100: 6-6, 101-200: 7-9, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Rice (3), East Carolina (2), Mississippi State, Troy (2), Alabama
Verdict: out

#115 Long Beach State, 29-27 (13-14), Big West

SOS rank: 28
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 17-12, Road: 10-14, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 14-4, Best Case: 33-23, Worst Case: 15-41
Top 50: 8-17, 51-100: 4-1, 101-200: 8-5, 201+: 9-4
Key Wins: Rice, Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine (2), Oregon State, UCLA, Oregon (2), Arizona, Stanford
Key Losses: Cal State Northridge, Pacific, UC Davis (2)
Verdict: out

2011 NCAA Baseball Tournament Watch

2011-05-29T23:33:00.000-07:00

The following NCAA baseball tournament projections are based on the May 30th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (30):

These teams are set to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Virginia, 49-9 (26-8), ACC, SOS: 29
#4 Florida, 45-16 (26-9), SEC, SOS: 2
#8 Creighton, 44-14 (20-7), MVC, SOS: 133
#10 Texas A&M, 42-18 (23-8), Big XII, SOS: 25
#11 Fresno State, 40-14 (20-7), WAC, SOS: 119
#13 Cal State Fullerton, 40-15 (21-6), Big West, SOS: 67
#14 Kent State, 43-15 (25-6), MAC, SOS: 169
#17 Rice, 41-19 (21-9), C-USA, SOS: 24
#25 Coastal Carolina, 41-18 (24-7), Big South, SOS: 129
#26 Charlotte, 42-14 (20-7), A-10, SOS: 254
#31 James Madison, 40-17 (24-9), CAA, SOS: 187
#36 Texas State, 40-21 (29-10), Southland, SOS: 78
#44 UCLA, 33-22 (18-10), Pac-10, SOS: 27
#45 Manhattan, 34-17 (23-2), MAAC, SOS: 221
#54 Oral Roberts, 36-20 (24-7), Summit, SOS: 202
#61 Wright State, 36-17 (19-7), Horizon, SOS: 273
#67 Seton Hall, 33-23 (18-13), Big East, SOS: 65
#68 Sacred Heart, 34-21 (26-9), NEC, SOS: 165
#71 Georgia Southern, 36-24 (22-13), SOCON, SOS: 117
#77 Belmont, 36-24 (21-13), A-Sun, SOS: 116
#92 Bethune-Cookman, 36-23 (21-0), MEAC, SOS: 236
#93 San Francisco, 31-23 (16-5), WCC, SOS: 115
#94 Austin Peay, 33-22 (20-6), OVC, SOS: 220
#126 Navy, 33-23 (16-10), Patriot, SOS: 270
#127 Maine, 32-22 (21-6), AEC, SOS: 263
#137 Princeton, 23-22 (17-6), Ivy, SOS: 181
#148 Illinois, 28-25 (18-9), Big Ten, SOS: 195
#184 Arkansas-Little Rock, 24-32 (14-20), Sun Belt, SOS: 60
#189 Alcorn State, 27-28 (24-4), SWAC, SOS: 262
#214 New Mexico, 20-39 (14-14), Mountain West, SOS: 9

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (23)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#2 Vanderbilt, 47-10 (25-9), SEC, SOS: 34
#3 North Carolina, 45-14 (21-12), ACC, SOS: 3
#5 South Carolina, 45-14 (23-10), SEC, SOS: 36
#6 Florida State, 42-17 (21-13), ACC, SOS: 11
#7 Texas, 43-15 (22-10), Big XII, SOS: 58
#9 Clemson, 41-18 (19-14), ACC, SOS: 14
#12 Arizona State, 39-16 (19-10), Pac-10, SOS: 30
#15 Georgia Tech, 40-19 (23-10), ACC, SOS: 12
#18 TCU, 42-17 (22-5), Mountain West, SOS: 97
#19 Southern Miss, 39-17 (17-10), C-USA, SOS: 53
#20 Oklahoma, 41-17 (16-13), Big XII, SOS: 91
#21 Oregon State, 38-17 (18-11), Pac-10, SOS: 64
#24 Stetson, 41-18 (24-9), A-Sun, SOS: 86
#27 Arkansas, 38-20 (17-17), SEC, SOS: 22
#29 FIU, 40-18 (23-10), Sun Belt, SOS: 90
#30 Arizona, 36-19 (15-14), Pac-10, SOS: 41
#32 East Carolina, 39-19 (16-11), C-USA, SOS: 70
#33 UCF, 38-21 (14-13), C-USA, SOS: 31
#34 LSU, 36-20 (13-17), SEC, SOS: 39
#37 Miami, 36-21 (21-11), ACC, SOS: 21
#39 Stanford, 32-20 (16-12), Pac-10, SOS: 18
#46 California, 31-20 (13-15), Pac-10, SOS: 38
#50 Mississippi State, 34-23 (15-18), SEC, SOS: 23

"BUBBLE" (23 teams for 11 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but many will.

#16 Stony Brook, 42-12 (23-4), AEC, SOS: 268
#22 Connecticut, 41-17 (24-7), Big East, SOS: 148
#23 UC Irvine, 39-16 (16-8), Big West, SOS: 131
#28 Troy, 42-17 (23-10), Sun Belt, SOS: 168
#38 Mercer, 39-20 (20-14), A-Sun, SOS: 151
#40 Illinois State, 36-18 (14-10), MVC, SOS: 159
#41 East Tennessee State, 36-21 (17-14), A-Sun, SOS: 52
#42 St. John's, 35-20 (21-10), Big East, SOS: 89
#47 Elon, 36-21 (23-9), SOCON, SOS: 81
#48 Jacksonville, 36-22 (21-13), A-Sun, SOS: 72
#49 Gonzaga, 32-19 (15-6), WCC, SOS: 107
#51 Kansas State, 36-23 (15-16), Big XII, SOS: 50
#55 SE Louisiana, 35-22 (18-16), Southland, SOS: 83
#56 NC State, 34-25 (16-17), ACC, SOS: 17
#58 Oklahoma State, 35-23 (15-15), Big XII, SOS: 44
#63 Missouri State, 33-23 (13-11), MVC, SOS: 54
#69 Alabama, 33-26 (15-20), SEC, SOS: 19
#74 Oregon, 33-26 (12-17), Pac-10, SOS: 35
#83 Georgia, 31-30 (20-16), SEC, SOS: 1
#88 FAU, 32-25 (17-16), Sun Belt, SOS: 46
#89 Baylor, 29-26 (13-16), Big XII, SOS: 8
#113 UAB, 29-28 (10-17), C-USA, SOS: 32
#115 Long Beach State, 29-27 (13-14), Big West, SOS: 28

"MIRACLE WATCH" (28)

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#35 Dallas Baptist, 39-17, Independent, SOS: 205
#43 Marist, 35-17 (13-11), MAAC, SOS: 225
#52 College of Charleston, 39-22 (22-14), SOCON, SOS: 147
#53 Michigan State, 36-21 (20-11), Big Ten, SOS: 149
#57 Rider, 33-18 (16-9), MAAC, SOS: 222
#59 Monmouth, 36-19 (27-9), NEC, SOS: 248
#60 Dartmouth, 30-12 (15-8), Ivy, SOS: 287
#62 Purdue, 37-20 (15-12), Big Ten, SOS: 239
#64 Samford, 37-23 (21-13), SOCON, SOS: 138
#65 Cal State Bakersfield, 33-22, Independent, SOS: 82
#66 Wichita State, 39-26 (17-9), MVC, SOS: 104
#70 Rhode Island, 31-22 (18-10), A-10, SOS: 87
#72 Stephen F. Austin, 37-23 (23-16), Southland, SOS: 161
#73 UNC Greensboro, 34-20 (22-10), SOCON, SOS: 186
#75 Texas Tech, 33-25 (12-17), Big XII, SOS: 33
#76 Eastern Michigan, 37-22 (19-13), MAC, SOS: 213
#78 Georgia State, 37-21 (17-15), CAA, SOS: 246
#79 Liberty, 35-24 (20-11), Big South, SOS: 114
#80 Sam Houston State, 35-24 (18-18), Southland, SOS: 111
#81 Gardner Webb, 34-23 (19-15), Big South, SOS: 132
#82 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 37-24 (22-16), Southland, SOS: 157
#84 South Dakota State, 37-20 (23-10), Summit, SOS: 269
#85 Penn State, 32-22 (12-14), Big Ten, SOS: 163
#86 Ole Miss, 30-25 (13-18), SEC, SOS: 20
#95 Virginia Tech, 30-25 (11-19), ACC, SOS: 47
#102 Auburn, 29-29 (15-18), SEC, SOS: 7
#103 Nebraska, 30-25 (9-18), Big XII, SOS: 48
#155 USC, 25-31 (14-14), Pac-10, SOS: 16

NCAA Regional Projections, 05/28/2011

2011-05-28T21:59:00.000-07:00

NCAA Baseball, 2011 Regional Projections

The following projections are based off of the latest tournament watch data, which takes into account a team's current resume.

Visit Lateral Sports to find, follow, and watch all the games both leading up to, and during the NCAA tournament for free!

I will release one final projection on Monday, May 30th prior to the official field announcement from the NCAA.

National Seeds:
{1} Virginia, {2} Vanderbilt, {3} South Carolina, {4} Florida, {5} Florida State, {6} Texas, {7} Cal State Fullerton, {8} North Carolina

Charlottesville Regional
1-Virginia (ACC auto)
2-St. John's (Big East auto)
3-James Madison (CAA auto)
4-Navy (Patriot auto)

Fort Worth Regional
1-TCU (Mountain West)
2-UCLA (Pac-10)
3-Kansas State (Big XII)
4-Sacred Heart (NEC auto)

Nashville Regional
1-Vanderbilt (SEC auto)
2-Southern Miss (C-USA)
3-East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
4-Austin Peay (OVC auto)

Norman Regional
1-Oklahoma (Big XII)
2-Arkansas (SEC)
3-Kent State (MAC auto)
4-Oral Roberts (Summit auto)

Columbia Regional
1-South Carolina (SEC)
2-Coastal Carolina (Big South auto)
3-NC State (ACC)
4-Belmont (A-Sun auto)

Clemson Regional
1-Clemson (ACC)
2-LSU (SEC)
3-Elon (SOCON)
4-Manhattan (MAAC auto)

Gainesville Regional
1-Florida (SEC)
2-FIU (Sun Belt auto)
3-Mercer (A-Sun)
4-Bethune-Cookman (MEAC auto)

Atlanta Regional
1-Georgia Tech (ACC)
2-Stetson (A-Sun)
3-Alabama (SEC)
4-Alcorn State (SWAC auto)

Tallahassee Regional
1-Florida State (ACC)
2-UCF (C-USA)
3-Jacksonville (A-Sun)
4-Georgia (SEC)

Fresno Regional
1-Fresno State (WAC auto)
2-Miami (ACC)
3-UC Irvine (Big West)
4-Oregon (Pac-10)

Austin Regional
1-Texas (Big XII)
2-Texas State (Southland auto)
3-Mississippi State (SEC)
4-Wright State (Horizon auto)

Houston Regional
1-Rice (C-USA auto)
2-Stanford (Pac-10)
3-Oklahoma State (Big XII)
4-New Mexico (Mountain West auto)

Fullerton Regional
1-Cal State Fullerton (Big West auto)
2-California (Pac-10)
3-Connecticut (Big East)
4-Baylor (Big XII)

Corvallis Regional
1-Oregon State (Pac-10 auto)
2-Creighton (MVC auto)
3-Gonzaga (WCC auto)
4-Illinois (Big Ten auto)

Chapel Hill Regional
1-North Carolina (ACC)
2-East Carolina (C-USA)
3-Charlotte (A-10 auto)
4-Princeton (Ivy auto)

College Station Regional
1-Texas A&M (Big XII auto)
2-Arizona (Pac-10)
3-Samford (SOCON auto)
4-Maine (AEC auto)

If there were a baseball NIT (first 16 out - not in any order):
Troy, Stony Brook, Illinois State, SE Louisiana, Missouri State, FAU, UAB, Dallas Baptist, Wichita State, Marist, Cal State Bakersfield, College of Charleston, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Michigan State, and Ole Miss.

Multiple Bid Conferences:
SEC (8), ACC (7), Pac-10 (6), Big XII (6), A-Sun (5), C-USA (4), Big West (2), Big East (2), Mountain West (2), SOCON (2)

Reference: 98% success predicting NCAA baseball tournament field

2011 NCAA Baseball Tournament Watch

2011-05-28T21:51:00.000-07:00

The following NCAA baseball tournament projections are based on the unpublished May 28th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (30):

These teams are currently projected to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Teams listed in italics have already secured their conference's automatic berth.

#1 Virginia, 47-9 (24-8), ACC, SOS: 33
#2 Vanderbilt, 47-9 (25-8), SEC, SOS: 39
#8 Creighton, 44-14 (20-7), MVC, SOS: 136
#10 Texas A&M, 41-18 (22-8), Big XII, SOS: 23
#11 Cal State Fullerton, 39-15 (20-6), Big West, SOS: 56
#12 Fresno State, 39-14 (19-7), WAC, SOS: 119
#14 Kent State, 43-15 (25-6), MAC, SOS: 170
#17 Oregon State, 38-16 (18-10), Pac-10, SOS: 69
#19 Rice, 41-19 (21-9), C-USA, SOS: 25
#24 FIU, 40-17 (23-9), Sun Belt, SOS: 90
#26 Coastal Carolina, 41-18 (24-7), Big South, SOS: 131
#27 Charlotte, 42-14 (20-7), A-10, SOS: 254
#30 James Madison, 40-17 (24-9), CAA, SOS: 188
#36 Texas State, 40-21 (29-10), Southland, SOS: 78
#40 St. John's, 35-19 (21-9), Big East, SOS: 93
#45 Gonzaga, 32-18 (15-5), WCC, SOS: 110
#46 Manhattan, 34-17 (23-2), MAAC, SOS: 221
#55 Samford, 37-22 (21-12), SOCON, SOS: 143
#57 Oral Roberts, 35-20 (23-7), Summit, SOS: 205
#64 Wright State, 35-17 (18-7), Horizon, SOS: 271
#66 Sacred Heart, 34-21 (26-9), NEC, SOS: 166
#75 Belmont, 36-24 (21-13), A-Sun, SOS: 115
#92 Bethune-Cookman, 36-23 (21-0), MEAC, SOS: 235
#93 Austin Peay, 33-22 (20-6), OVC, SOS: 220
#126 Navy, 33-23 (16-10), Patriot, SOS: 269
#127 Maine, 32-22 (21-6), AEC, SOS: 263
#137 Princeton, 23-22 (17-6), Ivy, SOS: 181
#149 Illinois, 28-25 (18-9), Big Ten, SOS: 196
#188 Alcorn State, 27-28 (24-4), SWAC, SOS: 262
#214 New Mexico, 20-39 (14-14), Mountain West, SOS: 9

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (21)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#3 North Carolina, 45-13 (21-11), ACC, SOS: 4
#4 South Carolina, 45-14 (23-10), SEC, SOS: 34
#5 Florida, 44-16 (25-9), SEC, SOS: 2
#6 Florida State, 42-16 (21-12), ACC, SOS: 12
#7 Texas, 43-15 (22-10), Big XII, SOS: 58
#9 Clemson, 41-18 (19-14), ACC, SOS: 13
#15 Georgia Tech, 40-19 (23-10), ACC, SOS: 11
#20 TCU, 42-17 (22-5), Mountain West, SOS: 98
#21 Southern Miss, 39-17 (17-10), C-USA, SOS: 53
#22 Oklahoma, 41-17 (16-13), Big XII, SOS: 92
#25 Stetson, 41-18 (24-9), A-Sun, SOS: 84
#28 Arkansas, 38-20 (17-17), SEC, SOS: 22
#31 East Carolina, 39-19 (16-11), C-USA, SOS: 70
#32 Arizona, 35-19 (14-14), Pac-10, SOS: 41
#33 UCF, 38-21 (14-13), C-USA, SOS: 30
#34 LSU, 36-20 (13-17), SEC, SOS: 37
#37 Miami, 36-21 (21-11), ACC, SOS: 21
#39 Stanford, 32-20 (16-12), Pac-10, SOS: 18
#42 UCLA, 33-21 (18-9), Pac-10, SOS: 28
#47 California, 31-20 (13-15), Pac-10, SOS: 38
#50 Mississippi State, 34-23 (15-18), SEC, SOS: 24

"BUBBLE" (20 teams for 13 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. Not every team on this list will earn an at-large, but many will.

#16 UC Irvine, 39-15 (16-7), Big West, SOS: 130
#18 Stony Brook, 42-12 (23-4), AEC, SOS: 268
#23 Connecticut, 41-17 (24-7), Big East, SOS: 147
#29 Troy, 42-17 (23-10), Sun Belt, SOS: 167
#38 Mercer, 39-20 (20-14), A-Sun, SOS: 151
#41 Illinois State, 36-18 (14-10), MVC, SOS: 159
#43 East Tennessee State, 36-21 (17-14), A-Sun, SOS: 51
#48 Elon, 36-21 (23-9), SOCON, SOS: 83
#49 Jacksonville, 36-22 (21-13), A-Sun, SOS: 73
#51 Kansas State, 36-23 (15-16), Big XII, SOS: 52
#54 SE Louisiana, 35-22 (18-16), Southland, SOS: 82
#56 NC State, 34-25 (16-17), ACC, SOS: 17
#59 Oklahoma State, 35-23 (15-15), Big XII, SOS: 44
#63 Missouri State, 33-23 (13-11), MVC, SOS: 54
#68 Alabama, 33-26 (15-20), SEC, SOS: 19
#82 Oregon, 32-26 (11-17), Pac-10, SOS: 36
#84 Georgia, 31-30 (20-16), SEC, SOS: 1
#89 FAU, 32-25 (17-16), Sun Belt, SOS: 47
#90 Baylor, 29-26 (13-16), Big XII, SOS: 8
#113 UAB, 29-28 (10-17), C-USA, SOS: 31

"MIRACLE WATCH" (29)

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#35 Dallas Baptist, 39-17, Independent, SOS: 204
#44 Marist, 35-17 (13-11), MAAC, SOS: 225
#52 College of Charleston, 39-22 (22-14), SOCON, SOS: 148
#53 Michigan State, 36-21 (20-11), Big Ten, SOS: 149
#58 Rider, 33-18 (16-9), MAAC, SOS: 222
#60 Monmouth, 36-19 (27-9), NEC, SOS: 249
#61 Dartmouth, 30-12 (15-8), Ivy, SOS: 287
#62 Purdue, 37-20 (15-12), Big Ten, SOS: 239
#65 Wichita State, 39-26 (17-9), MVC, SOS: 105
#67 Cal State Bakersfield, 32-22, Independent, SOS: 80
#69 Seton Hall, 32-23 (17-13), Big East, SOS: 65
#70 Rhode Island, 31-22 (18-10), A-10, SOS: 88
#71 UNC Greensboro, 34-20 (22-10), SOCON, SOS: 186
#72 Stephen F. Austin, 37-23 (23-16), Southland, SOS: 164
#73 Texas Tech, 33-25 (12-17), Big XII, SOS: 32
#74 Eastern Michigan, 37-22 (19-13), MAC, SOS: 214
#76 Georgia State, 37-21 (17-15), CAA, SOS: 246
#77 Liberty, 35-24 (20-11), Big South, SOS: 113
#78 Georgia Southern, 35-24 (21-13), SOCON, SOS: 123
#79 South Dakota State, 37-19 (23-9), Summit, SOS: 273
#80 Sam Houston State, 35-24 (18-18), Southland, SOS: 111
#81 Gardner Webb, 34-23 (19-15), Big South, SOS: 132
#83 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 37-24 (22-16), Southland, SOS: 157
#85 Hawaii, 34-24 (19-8), WAC, SOS: 86
#87 Ole Miss, 30-25 (13-18), SEC, SOS: 20
#94 Virginia Tech, 30-25 (11-19), ACC, SOS: 45
#102 Auburn, 29-29 (15-18), SEC, SOS: 7
#103 Nebraska, 30-25 (9-18), Big XII, SOS: 48
#143 USC, 25-30 (14-13), Pac-10, SOS: 16

*** #13 Arizona State, 38-16 (18-10), Pac-10, SOS: 29 ***
Not eligible due to postseason ban. If eligible, would project as a lock.

College Baseball Selection Show Schedule

"MIRACLE WATCH" (33)

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid. At the moment, with a shortfall of qualified candidates, one of these teams is expected to earn an at-large bid.

#31 UCF, 26-15 (6-9), C-USA, SOS: 23
#41 Stephen F. Austin, 28-12 (15-7), Southland, SOS: 239
#52 Purdue, 27-13 (7-5), Big Ten, SOS: 248
#53 Manhattan, 22-12 (14-0), MAAC, SOS: 215
#54 James Madison, 27-14 (12-9), CAA, SOS: 198
#55 College of Charleston, 27-15 (11-7), SOCON, SOS: 139
#60 Sam Houston State, 27-15 (12-9), Southland, SOS: 165
#61 Penn State, 24-13 (7-5), Big Ten, SOS: 201
#62 San Jose State, 26-15 (6-6), WAC, SOS: 149
#65 Alabama, 25-18 (8-12), SEC, SOS: 27
#66 East Tennessee State, 23-15 (13-10), A-Sun, SOS: 56
#67 Western Kentucky, 25-16 (10-8), Sun Belt, SOS: 104
#68 Gardner Webb, 24-13 (10-9), Big South, SOS: 209
#69 Pittsburgh, 25-13 (11-4), Big East, SOS: 238
#70 Rider, 21-12 (9-3), MAAC, SOS: 205
#71 Dallas Baptist, 25-13, Independent, SOS: 235
#72 Ole Miss, 24-17 (9-10), SEC, SOS: 38
#74 New Mexico State, 27-13 (5-7), WAC, SOS: 268
#75 Texas Tech, 24-18 (6-12), Big XII, SOS: 22
#76 Missouri State, 23-15 (6-3), MVC, SOS: 135
#77 Georgia Southern, 24-16 (13-5), SOCON, SOS: 105
#78 North Florida, 23-15 (12-9), A-Sun, SOS: 128
#79 FAU, 24-16 (11-7), Sun Belt, SOS: 90
#80 Radford, 24-15 (10-5), Big South, SOS: 156
#81 Nebraska, 25-16 (5-10), Big XII, SOS: 115
#84 UNLV, 25-17 (4-10), Mountain West, SOS: 100
#85 Memphis, 24-17 (7-5), C-USA, SOS: 94
#100 Oregon, 21-17 (4-9), Pac-10, SOS: 84
#102 Virginia Tech, 23-19 (7-14), ACC, SOS: 62
#107 Tennessee, 22-17 (5-13), SEC, SOS: 95
#119 Baylor, 21-20 (7-11), Big XII, SOS: 20
#132 Kansas, 20-20 (10-9), Big XII, SOS: 35
#146 USC, 18-21 (9-7), Pac-10, SOS: 19

NCAA Tournament Complete Summary

2011-04-05T09:19:00.000-07:00

The 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were 44-23 in picking straight-up winners throughout the tournament.

With regards to the score predictions for each team during the course of the entire tournament, I was within 3 points of a team's actual game score 41 times (30.6%) with 3 exact predictions (BYU in Sweet Sixteen, Purdue in third round, and Kansas in second round). I was within 5 points of the actual score 56 times (41.8%), within 10 points 98 times (73.1%), and within 20 points of the actual score 125 times (93.3%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, in the Final Four round, I predicted Butler to beat VCU by 10 and they ended up winning by 8. As a result, I was 2 points off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, in the Final Four round, I predicted Kentucky to defeat Connecticut by 9 and they ended up losing by 1. Thus, I was 10 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 3 points of the actual game spread 13 times (19.4%) with five exact predictions (Kentucky over North Carolina by 7 in the Elite Eight, Connecticut over Arizona by 2 in the Elite Eight, Kansas over Richmond by 20 in the Sweet Sixteen, Ohio State over UTSA by 29 in the first round, and Pittsburgh over UNC-Asheville by 23 in the second round). I was within 5 points of a game spread 17 times (25.4%). I was within 10 points 30 times (44.8%), and within 20 points 61 times (91.0%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score 20 times (29.9%) with one exact prediction (BYU/Wofford's combined 140 points in the second round). I was within 10 points of the total game score 36 times (53.7%), and within 20 points 57 times (85.1%).

NCAA Tournament Score Predicitions: Championship Game

2011-04-04T11:41:00.000-07:00

The following projected result for the Championship Game of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

Connecticut over Butler, 73-65

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Final Four

2011-04-02T11:03:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the Final Four round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

Kentucky over Connecticut, 74-65

Butler over VCU, 74-64

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Summary

2011-03-28T11:09:00.000-07:00

The Elite Eight round of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were just 2-2 in picking straight-up winners in the Elite Eight, bringing the tournament total to 42-22.

Both incorrect picks were widely regarded as upsets as Butler knocked off Florida in overtime and VCU knocked off top-seeded Kansas.

With regards to the score predictions for each team, I was within 3 points of a team's actual game score 3 times in the Elite Eight round bringing the tournament total to 40 times (31.3%). I was within 5 points of the actual score 3 times (54 for tournament, 42.2%), within 10 points 5 times (95 for tournament, 74.2%), and within 20 points of the actual score 8 times (121 for tournament, 94.5%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Kentucky to beat North Carolina by 7 and they ended up winning by 7. As a result, I was 0 points off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Florida to defeat Butler by 10 and they ended up losing by 3. Thus, I was 13 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 3 points of the actual game spread 2 times in the Elite Eight round (exactly projecting the 7-point spread between Kentucky and North Carolina and exactly projecting the 2-point spread between Connecticut and Arizona), bringing the tournament total to 12 times (18.8%). I was within 5 points of the game spread 2 time (15 for tournament, 23.4%), within 10 points 2 times (27 for tournament, 42.2%), and within 20 points 3 times (58 for tournament, 90.6%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score 2 times in the Elite Eight round, bringing the tournament total to 20 times (31.3%). I was within 10 points of the total game score 3 times (35 for tournament, 54.7%), and within 20 points on 4 occasions (56 for tournament, 87.5%).

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Elite Eight

2011-03-26T11:47:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the Elite Eight round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

Florida over Butler, 73-63

Connecticut over Arizona, 72-70

Kentucky over North Carolina, 75-68

Kansas over VCU, 78-55

NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Summary

2011-03-26T11:24:00.000-07:00

The Sweet Sixteen round of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were just 2-6 in picking straight-up winners in the Sweet Sixteen, bringing the tournament total to 40-20.

Of the 6 incorrect picks in the Sweet Sixteen round, two were decided in overtime and another three were decided by single digits. Oddly enough, the only big miss was on a number one seed as Duke fell to Arizona by a 16-point margin.

With regards to the score predictions for each team, I was within 3 points of a team's actual game score 7 times in the Sweet Sixteen round, to include exactly predicting BYU's 74-point outing against Florida, bringing the tournament total to 37 times (30.8%). I was within 5 points of the actual score 10 times (51 for tournament, 42.5%), within 10 points 12 times (90 for tournament, 75.0%), and within 20 points of the actual score 15 times (113 for tournament, 94.2%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted North Carolina to beat Marquette by 10 and they ended up winning by 18. As a result, I was 8 points off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Ohio State to defeat Kentucky by 8 and they ended up losing by 2. Thus, I was 10 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 3 points of the actual game spread 1 time in the Sweet Sixteen round (exactly projecting the 20-point spread between Kansas and Richmond), bringing the tournament total to 10 times (16.7%). I was within 5 points of the game spread 1 time (13 for tournament, 21.7%), within 10 points 3 times (25 for tournament, 41.7%), and within 20 points 7 times (55 for tournament, 91.7%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score 2 times in the Sweet Sixteen round, bringing the tournament total to 18 times (30.0%). I was within 10 points of the total game score 4 times (32 for tournament, 53.3%), and within 20 points on 7 occasions (52 for tournament, 86.7%).

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Sweet Sixteen

2011-03-24T00:46:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the Sweet Sixteen round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

San Diego State over Connecticut, 71-64

BYU over Florida, 74-68

Duke over Arizona, 82-62

Wisconsin over Butler, 73-60

North Carolina over Marquette, 78-68

Kansas over Richmond, 78-58

Ohio State over Kentucky, 73-65

Florida State over VCU, 73-62

NCAA Tournament Third Round Summary

2011-03-20T22:07:00.000-07:00

The third round of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were 11-5 in picking straight-up winners in Round 3, bringing the tournament total to 38-14.

Of the 5 incorrect picks in the third round, three were decided by four points or fewer. In fact, the Pitt-Butler game and the Texas-Arizona game were decided by a single point.

With regards to the score predictions for each team, I was within 3 points of a team's actual game score 11 times in the third round, to include exactly predicting Purdue' 76-point outing against VCU, bringing the tournament total to 30 times (28.8%). I was within 5 points of the actual score 14 times (41 for tournament, 39.4%), within 10 points 23 times (78 for tournament, 75.0%), and within 20 points of the actual score 30 times (98 for tournament, 94.2%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Kentucky to beat West Virginia by 14 and they ended up winning by 8. As a result, I was 6 points off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Syracuse to defeat Marquette by 11 and they ended up losing by 4. Thus, I was 15 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 3 points of the actual game spread 1 time in the third round, bringing the tournament total to 9 times (17.3%). I was within 5 points of the game spread 2 times (12 for tournament, 23.1%), within 10 points 5 times (22 for tournament, 42.3%), and within 20 points 14 times (48 for tournament, 92.3%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score 6 times in the third round, bringing the tournament total to 16 times (30.8%). I was within 10 points of the total game score 10 times (28 for tournament, 53.8%), and within 20 points on 14 occasions (45 for tournament, 86.5%).

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Third Round, Sunday Games

2011-03-19T01:28:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the third round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

North Carolina over Washington, 75-75 (OT)

Duke over Michigan, 76-54

Ohio State over George Mason, 77-59

Texas over Arizona, 79-63

Purdue over VCU, 76-55

Syracuse over Marquette, 76-65

Kansas over Illinois, 80-60

Notre Dame over Florida State, 75-62

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Third Round, Saturday Games

2011-03-19T01:00:00.000-07:00

Kentucky over West Virginia, 76-62

Florida over UCLA, 78-58

Richmond over Morehead State, 68-63

San Diego State over Temple, 74-59

Pittsburgh over Butler, 78-59

BYU over Gonzaga, 78-68

Wisconsin over Kansas State, 71-62

Connecticut over Cincinnati, 67-67 (OT)

NCAA Tournament Second Round Summary

2011-03-19T00:47:00.000-07:00

The second round of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were 24-8 in picking straight-up winners in Round 2, bringing the tournament total to 27-9.

Of the 8 incorrect picks in the second round, five were decided by eight points or fewer. In six of those eight games, the projected winning margin was eight points or fewer, indicating a low confidence in those outcomes.

With regards to the score predictions for each team, I was within 3 points of a team's actual game score 18 times in the second round, to include exactly predicting Kansas' 72-point outing against Boston, bringing the tournament total to 19 times (26.4%). I was within 5 points of the actual score 23 times (27 for tournament, 37.5%), within 10 points 50 times (55 for tournament, 76.4%), and within 20 points of the actual score 61 times (68 for tournament, 94.4%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Butler to beat Old Dominion by 1 and they ended up winning by 2. As a result, I was 1 point off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted Clemson to defeat West Virginia by 1 and they ended up losing by 8. Thus, I was 9 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 3 points of the actual game spread 8 times in the second round, to include exactly predicting the 23-point spread of Pittsburgh over UNC Asheville and the 29-point spread of Ohio State over UTSA, bringing the tournament total to 8 times (22.2%). I was within 5 points of the game spread 10 times (10 for tournament, 27.8%), within 10 points 17 times (17 for tournament, 47.2%), and within 20 points 30 times (34 for tournament, 94.4%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score 9 times in the second round, to include exactly predicting the 140 combined points scored by BYU and Wofford, bringing the tournament total to 10 times (27.8%). I was within 10 points of the total game score 16 times (18 for tournament, 50.0%), and within 20 points on 28 occasions (31 for tournament, 86.1%).

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Second Round, Southeast Region

2011-03-16T23:33:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the second round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

Pittsburgh over UNC Asheville, 76-53

Butler over Old Dominion, 66-65

Utah State over Kansas State, 71-63

Wisconsin over Belmont, 69-65

Gonzaga over St. John's, 78-62

BYU over Wofford, 81-59

UCLA over Michigan State, 70-66

Florida over UC Santa Barbara, 75-52

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Second Round, West Region

2011-03-16T23:25:00.000-07:00

Duke over Hampton, 73-46

Tennessee over Michigan, 69-65

Arizona over Memphis, 79-64

Texas over Oakland, 83-62

Cincinnati over Missouri, 71-69

Connecticut over Bucknell, 78-60

Temple over Penn State, 74-57

San Diego State over Northern Colorado, 76-55

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Second Round, East Region

2011-03-16T23:18:00.001-07:00

Ohio State over UT San Antonio, 72-43

George Mason over Villanova, 71-65

Clemson over West Virginia, 66-65

Kentucky over Princeton, 75-53

Marquette over Xavier, 71-70

Syracuse over Indiana State, 74-52

Washington over Georgia, 82-62

North Carolina over Long Island, 83-62

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Second Round, Southwest Region

2011-03-16T23:07:00.000-07:00

Kansas over Boston, 72-44

UNLV over Illinois, 71-65

Vanderbilt over Richmond, 72-66

Louisville over Morehead State, 78-59

Georgetown over VCU, 78-61

Purdue over St. Peter's, 70-46

Texas A&M over Florida State, 68-63

Notre Dame over Akron, 77-55

NCAA Tournament First Round Summary

2011-03-16T20:01:00.001-07:00

The first round of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is complete. In all, my predictions were 3-1 in picking straight-up winners.

With regards to the score predictions for each team, I was within 1 points of a team's actual game score once (12.5%). I was within 5 points of the actual score 4 times (50.0%), within 10 points 6 times (60.0%), and within 20 points of the actual score 9 times (90.0%).

In addition to measuring the accuracy of predicting the scores for each team, I also kept track of how well the projections fared with regards to the point spread of each contest.

The spread differential was measured as follows: If I projected Team A to win by X points and they won by Y points, then I was |X-Y| points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted UT San Antonio to beat Alabama State by 22 and they ended up winning by 9. As a result, I was 13 points off the actual spread. Conversely, if I projected Team A to win by X points and they lost by Y points, then I was X+Y points off in predicting the actual spread. For example, I predicted USC to defeat VCU by 7 and they ended up losing by 13. Thus, I was 20 points off the actual spread.

With regards to the point spread, I was within 20 points of the actual spread all 4 times (100.0%).

With regards to the total points scored in each game by both teams, I was within five points of the total game score once (25.0%). I was within 10 points of the total game score 2 times (50.0%), and within 20 points on 3 occasions (75.0%).

The complete results for the 2010 tournament predictions are available by clicking here.

NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: First Round

2011-03-14T23:24:00.000-07:00

The following projected results for the first round of the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament uses score predictions that are automated based on average performances for each team. Relative adjustments are made for the difference between schedule strength and current opponent strength.

UNC Asheville over UALR, 80-60

Clemson over UAB, 66-64

UT San Antonio over Alabama State, 74-52

USC over VCU, 71-64

96% Success Predicting NCAA Tournament Field

2011-03-14T22:55:00.000-07:00

Based on my final NCAA tournament projection, I correctly predicted 65 of the 68 tournament teams (96%), which included the accurate selection of 34 of the 37 at-large teams (92%). Over the past four years, I have correctly forecast 255 of the 263 tournament teams (97%).

The three disagreements I had with the Selection Committee were very minor. The three teams that I projected in that ultimately did not make the field were Virginia Tech, Colorado, and Alabama. I acknowledged all three as bubble teams and even listed Alabama among my last three in. All three were rewarded with 1-seeds in the NIT.

The three teams that I projected out of the field that ultimately made it were VCU, Penn State, and USC. I acknowledged all three as bubble teams and listed VCU and Penn State among my first three out. The other team I acknowledged among my first three out was Boston College, which was awarded a 1-seed in the NIT.

Ultimately, none of these six teams had a realistic shot at running through the tournament to capture the national championship, so the issue is ultimately moot. If I could make one change to the Selection Committee's decisions, it would have been to put Virginia Tech in and take USC out. The resumes for each of the six are highlighted below for your personal review.

#57 VCU, 23-11 (14-7), CAA

SOS rank: 85
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 26-8, Worst Case: 19-15
Top 50: 3-5, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 2-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, Drexel (2), UCLA, Wofford, Wichita State
Verdict: NCAA = in; Rogers Poll = first three out

#59 Virginia Tech, 21-11 (11-8), ACC

SOS rank: 61
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-7, Neutral: 4-1
Close Games: 2-4, Best Case: 25-7, Worst Case: 19-13
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Florida State (2)
Verdict: NCAA = out; Rogers Poll = in

#67 Alabama, 21-11 (13-5), SEC

SOS rank: 98
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 16-0, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 0-4
Close Games: 4-1, Best Case: 22-10, Worst Case: 17-15
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 5-4, 201+: 11-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia (2), Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: NCAA = out; Rogers Poll = last three in

#76 Penn State, 19-14 (12-10), Big Ten

SOS rank: 4
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-5, Road: 3-8, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 22-11, Worst Case: 15-18
Top 50: 3-6, 51-100: 6-6, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Wisconsin (2), Illinois, Fairfield
Verdict: NCAA = in; Rogers Poll = first three out

#88 Colorado, 21-13 (10-9), Big XII

SOS rank: 66
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-10, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 23-11, Worst Case: 16-18
Top 50: 5-6, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 3-4, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Texas, Nebraska, Kansas State (3), Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: NCAA = out; Rogers Poll = in

#99 USC, 19-14 (11-9), Pac-10

SOS rank: 37
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-5, Road: 5-8, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-5, Best Case: 24-9, Worst Case: 15-18
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 5-3
Key Wins: Arizona, Texas, Washington State, UCLA, Washington, Tennessee
Verdict: NCAA = in; Rogers Poll = out

All 31 teams listed as auto-bids, 4 of which were still to be determined at the time of the projection, indeed received automatic berths to the NCAA tournament. In addition, all 24 of the teams I listed as "locks" were awarded at-large berths.

Moreover, 10 of the 13 "bubble" teams that I expected to receive an at-large bid were granted one. The three exceptions (Virginia Tech, Colorado, and Alabama) instead received a #1 seed in the NIT. VCU, Penn State, and USC received at-large berths in their place, each teams that I had listed on the "bubble" but not expected to earn an at-large (though VCU and Penn State were among my first three out).

In the case of the other 11 "bubble" teams that I had listed and accurately expected to be left out of the NCAA tournament, 6 received berths in the NIT, 2 received berths in the CIT, and 2 declined postseason opportunities (Drexel and Tulsa).

30 teams were profiled in my "miracle watch", a category reserved for key teams available for the NIT, CBI, and CIT selection pools. 16 were awarded berths in the NIT, 2 were awarded berths in the CBI, and 3 were awarded berths in the CIT.

The 9 programs profiled in the "miracle watch" that did not have a postseason destination were Southern Miss, American, Maryland, Minnesota, Baylor, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Iowa State, and Virginia. All nine abstained from the CBI and CIT tournaments, for various reasons, after being passed over for the NIT.

Final NCAA Tournament Projections

2011-03-13T00:03:00.000-08:00

The following represents my final projections for the 2011 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Teams are separated into automatic qualifiers, locks, bubble teams that will make it in, and bubble teams that will be left out.

#1 seeds are expected to be awarded to Kansas, Ohio State, San Diego State, and Duke. Pittsburgh, Florida, and North Carolina are also very strong possibilities.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams earned their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. At the time of this projection, the Big Ten, A-10, SEC, and ACC championships were not final. The projected champions for those conferences are noted in italics below.

#1 Kansas, 32-2 (17-2), Big XII, SOS: 18
#2 Ohio State, 31-2 (18-2), Big Ten, SOS: 33
#3 San Diego State, 32-2 (17-2), Mountain West, SOS: 81
#4 Duke, 29-4 (15-3), ACC, SOS: 36
#6 Utah State, 30-3 (17-1), WAC, SOS: 162
#8 Florida, 26-6 (15-3), SEC, SOS: 9
#13 Old Dominion, 27-6 (17-4), CAA, SOS: 79
#15 Belmont, 30-4 (22-1), A-Sun, SOS: 275
#19 Connecticut, 26-9 (14-9), Big East, SOS: 5
#25 Richmond, 26-7 (15-3), A-10, SOS: 125
#26 Long Island, 27-5 (19-2), NEC, SOS: 285
#32 Princeton, 25-6 (13-2), Ivy, SOS: 193
#33 Memphis, 25-9 (13-6), C-USA, SOS: 59
#39 Washington, 23-10 (14-7), Pac-10, SOS: 51
#42 Butler, 23-9 (15-5), Horizon, SOS: 99
#45 Gonzaga, 24-9 (13-3), WCC, SOS: 118
#46 Oakland, 25-9 (20-1), Summit, SOS: 172
#49 Bucknell, 25-8 (16-1), Patriot, SOS: 218
#60 Morehead State, 24-9 (15-5), OVC, SOS: 228
#84 Hampton, 24-8 (14-5), MEAC, SOS: 331
#90 Wofford, 21-12 (17-4), SOCON, SOS: 156
#96 Northern Colorado, 21-10 (15-3), Big Sky, SOS: 245
#102 Akron, 23-12 (13-7), MAC, SOS: 196
#106 Indiana State, 20-13 (15-6), MVC, SOS: 110
#108 St. Peter's, 20-13 (14-7), MAAC, SOS: 135
#117 Boston, 21-13 (15-4), AEC, SOS: 212
#135 UNC Asheville, 19-13 (14-7), Big South, SOS: 250
#137 UC Santa Barbara, 18-13 (11-8), Big West, SOS: 231
#150 Texas-San Antonio, 19-13 (12-7), Southland, SOS: 315
#174 Arkansas-Little Rock, 19-16 (11-9), Sun Belt, SOS: 235
#231 Alabama State, 17-17 (14-7), SWAC, SOS: 333

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (24)

Though the following teams did not receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are virtually guaranteed to capture an at-large bid.

#5 BYU, 30-4 (16-3), Mountain West, SOS: 52
#7 Pittsburgh, 27-5 (15-4), Big East, SOS: 29
#9 North Carolina, 26-6 (16-2), ACC, SOS: 14
#10 Notre Dame, 26-6 (15-5), Big East, SOS: 17
#11 Texas, 27-7 (15-4), Big XII, SOS: 19
#12 Purdue, 25-7 (14-5), Big Ten, SOS: 23
#14 Syracuse, 26-7 (13-7), Big East, SOS: 26
#16 Kentucky, 24-8 (12-6), SEC, SOS: 10
#17 George Mason, 26-6 (17-3), CAA, SOS: 100
#18 Arizona, 27-7 (16-5), Pac-10, SOS: 61
#20 Wisconsin, 23-8 (13-6), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#21 Xavier, 24-7 (15-2), A-10, SOS: 62
#22 Louisville, 25-9 (14-7), Big East, SOS: 13
#23 UNLV, 24-8 (12-6), Mountain West, SOS: 41
#24 Temple, 25-7 (15-3), A-10, SOS: 97
#27 Cincinnati, 25-8 (12-8), Big East, SOS: 70
#28 Georgetown, 21-10 (10-9), Big East, SOS: 1
#29 UAB, 22-8 (12-5), C-USA, SOS: 72
#30 Vanderbilt, 23-10 (11-8), SEC, SOS: 15
#31 Texas A&M, 24-8 (11-7), Big XII, SOS: 73
#38 Kansas State, 22-10 (10-7), Big XII, SOS: 20
#44 West Virginia, 20-11 (11-8), Big East, SOS: 3
#48 Missouri, 23-10 (9-9), Big XII, SOS: 68
#50 St. John's, 21-11 (13-7), Big East, SOS: 8

"INSIDE THE BUBBLE" (13)

Teams on the bubble boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. The following are expected to earn an at-large berth from the selection committee. For a detailed look inside the bubble, click here.

#51 UCLA, 22-10 (13-6), Pac-10, SOS: 58
#52 Villanova, 21-11 (9-10), Big East, SOS: 27
#53 Florida State, 21-10 (11-6), ACC, SOS: 74
#55 Clemson, 21-11 (10-8), ACC, SOS: 49
#58 Georgia, 21-11 (10-8), SEC, SOS: 38
#59 Virginia Tech, 21-11 (11-8), ACC, SOS: 60
#64 Tennessee, 19-14 (9-9), SEC, SOS: 2
#75 Michigan, 20-13 (10-10), Big Ten, SOS: 24
#83 Marquette, 20-14 (11-10), Big East, SOS: 16
#88 Colorado, 21-13 (10-9), Big XII, SOS: 66

Last three in:
#67 Illinois, 19-13 (9-10), Big Ten, SOS: 12
#68 Alabama, 21-11 (13-5), SEC, SOS: 98
#97 Michigan State, 19-14 (11-10), Big Ten, SOS: 11

"OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE" (14)

Teams on the bubble boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. The following are not expected to earn an at-large berth from the selection committee. For a detailed look inside the bubble, click here.

First three out:
#57 VCU, 23-11 (14-7), CAA, SOS: 85
#70 Boston College, 20-12 (10-8), ACC, SOS: 35
#71 Penn State, 19-13 (12-9), Big Ten, SOS: 7

Others:
#34 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC, SOS: 123
#35 Harvard, 23-6 (12-3), Ivy, SOS: 195
#36 St. Mary's, 25-8 (12-4), WCC, SOS: 155
#37 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon, SOS: 157
#40 UTEP, 25-9 (13-6), C-USA, SOS: 122
#41 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC, SOS: 147
#65 Marshall, 22-11 (10-8), C-USA, SOS: 102
#66 Drexel, 21-10 (12-8), CAA, SOS: 121
#76 Valparaiso, 23-11 (14-7), Horizon, SOS: 159
#92 Tulsa, 19-13 (12-6), C-USA, SOS: 63
#99 USC, 19-14 (11-9), Pac-10, SOS: 37

The following teams represent the "miracle watch". They have quality resumes and some are sure to generate some level of discussion among the selection committee. It is highly unlikely for any of these teams to make the NCAA tournament field.

#43 Coastal Carolina, 28-5 (18-3), Big South, SOS: 329
#47 Fairfield, 24-7 (16-4), MAAC, SOS: 249
#54 College of Charleston, 24-10 (16-5), SOCON, SOS: 161
#56 Vermont, 23-8 (14-4), AEC, SOS: 232
#61 Iona, 22-11 (15-6), MAAC, SOS: 130
#62 Murray State, 23-8 (14-5), OVC, SOS: 295
#63 Southern Miss, 22-10 (10-8), C-USA, SOS: 145
#69 Rider, 23-10 (14-6), MAAC, SOS: 190
#72 Kent State, 23-11 (14-5), MAC, SOS: 158
#73 James Madison, 21-11 (10-9), CAA, SOS: 113
#74 Dayton, 22-12 (10-9), A-10, SOS: 77
#77 New Mexico, 21-12 (9-9), Mountain West, SOS: 89
#78 Colorado State, 19-12 (9-8), Mountain West, SOS: 50
#79 UCF, 19-11 (6-11), C-USA, SOS: 84
#80 American, 22-9 (12-4), Patriot, SOS: 274
#81 Nebraska, 19-12 (7-10), Big XII, SOS: 64
#82 Washington State, 19-12 (9-10), Pac-10, SOS: 71
#85 Portland, 20-11 (7-8), WCC, SOS: 141
#86 Oklahoma State, 19-13 (7-11), Big XII, SOS: 31
#89 Ole Miss, 20-13 (8-10), SEC, SOS: 65
#100 Northwestern, 18-13 (8-12), Big Ten, SOS: 48
#101 Miami, 19-14 (7-11), ACC, SOS: 40
#103 Maryland, 19-14 (8-10), ACC, SOS: 53
#107 Minnesota, 17-14 (6-13), Big Ten, SOS: 21
#109 California, 17-14 (10-9), Pac-10, SOS: 25
#113 Baylor, 18-13 (7-10), Big XII, SOS: 83
#114 Arkansas, 18-13 (7-10), SEC, SOS: 101
#121 Mississippi State, 17-14 (9-8), SEC, SOS: 78
#139 Iowa State, 16-16 (3-14), Big XII, SOS: 67
#144 Virginia, 16-15 (7-10), ACC, SOS: 88

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Ten conferences are projected to receive multiple bids to the tournament. The Big East leads the way with 11 teams. The Big XII, Big Ten, and SEC each follow with 6 teams. The ACC projects 5. The Pac-10, A-10, and Mountain West are expected to have 3 teams each. The CAA (2) and C-USA (2) are also expected to have multiple teams in The Dance.

Big East (11): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown, West Virginia, St. John's, Villanova, Marquette
Big XII (6): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
SEC (6): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama
ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech
Mountain West (3): San Diego State, BYU, UNLV
Pac-10 (3): Washington, Arizona, UCLA
A-10 (3): Richmond, Xavier, Temple
CAA (2): Old Dominion, George Mason
C-USA (2): Memphis, UAB

CONTINGENCIES

As mentioned, at the time of this posting the ACC, Big Ten, A-10, and SEC championship games are still to be played. In the automatic bids category above, the team expected to capture the win in those games is assumed to be the champion for that league and the remainder of the tournament projections are dependent on that result. Should the outcome vary, contingency plans are presented below for each of the four title games.

ACC: If North Carolina defeats Duke, North Carolina would earn the automatic bid and Duke would earn an at-large. No other impact to the tournament field is expected.

Big Ten: If Penn State defeats Ohio State, Penn State would earn the automatic bid and Ohio State will earn an at-large. Illinois would drop from the tournament field.

A-10: If Dayton defeats Richmond, Dayton would earn the automatic bid and Richmond will earn an at-large. Illinois would drop from the tournament field.

SEC: If Kentucky defeats Florida, Kentucky would earn the automatic bid and Florida will earn an at-large. No other impact to the tournament field is expected.

If both Penn State and Dayton win their league's respective auto-bids, then both Illinois and Alabama would drop from the tournament field.

Inside The Bubble: Final

2011-03-13T00:00:00.000-08:00

To accompany the final tournament projections, a detailed look inside the bubble is provided.

Going in to Selection Sunday, there are 27 teams on the bubble fighting for 13 available at-large spots. Below, a snapshot of each team's resume is presented along with their current projected tournament disposition.

#34 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC

SOS rank: 123
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 15-1, Road: 7-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 27-6, Worst Case: 20-13
Top 50: 2-0, 51-100: 0-4, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 12-0
Key Wins: Wichita State (2)
Verdict: out

#35 Harvard, 23-6 (12-3), Ivy

SOS rank: 195
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 14-0, Road: 9-5, Neutral: 0-1
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 26-3, Worst Case: 20-9
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 7-1, 201+: 11-0
Key Wins: Boston College, Princeton
Verdict: out

#36 St. Mary's, 25-8 (12-4), WCC

SOS rank: 155
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 3-2
Close Games: 1-2, Best Case: 27-6, Worst Case: 24-9
Top 50: 2-6, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 9-0, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Portland, Gonzaga, St. John's
Key Losses: San Diego
Verdict: out

#37 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon

SOS rank: 157
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 16-2, Road: 9-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-1, Best Case: 27-7, Worst Case: 24-10
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 11-2, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Valparaiso, Kent State, Iona
Verdict: out

#40 UTEP, 25-9 (13-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 122
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 19-3, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-3, Best Case: 28-6, Worst Case: 23-11
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 5-3, 101-200: 9-3, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Marshall (2), Memphis, Tulsa (2), Michigan
Verdict: out

#41 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC

SOS rank: 147
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 10-2, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 28-4, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 10-2, 201+: 12-1
Key Wins: Tulsa
Verdict: out

#51 UCLA, 22-10 (13-6), Pac-10

SOS rank: 58
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 17-3, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 4-2, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Arizona, BYU, Washington State (2), St. John's
Verdict: in

#52 Villanova, 21-11 (9-10), Big East

SOS rank: 27
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 13-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 3-5, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 6-7, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville, Temple, Marquette, West Virginia, UCLA, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#53 Florida State, 21-10 (11-6), ACC

SOS rank: 74
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-3, Road: 8-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 1-3, Best Case: 24-7, Worst Case: 20-11
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 9-1, 201+: 9-1
Key Wins: Duke, Boston College, Clemson
Key Losses: Auburn
Verdict: in

#55 Clemson, 21-11 (10-8), ACC

SOS rank: 49
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-8, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 1-5, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 7-2, 101-200: 8-4, 201+: 6-0
Key Wins: Boston College (2), Virginia Tech, College of Charleston, Florida State, Wofford
Verdict: in

#57 VCU, 23-11 (14-7), CAA

SOS rank: 85
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 26-8, Worst Case: 19-15
Top 50: 3-5, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 2-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, Drexel (2), UCLA, Wofford, Wichita State
Verdict: out

#58 Georgia, 21-11 (10-8), SEC

SOS rank: 38
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-5, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 8-4, Best Case: 25-7, Worst Case: 13-19
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 6-0, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, UAB, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#59 Virginia Tech, 21-11 (11-8), ACC

SOS rank: 60
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-7, Neutral: 4-1
Close Games: 2-4, Best Case: 25-7, Worst Case: 19-13
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Florida State (2)
Verdict: in

#64 Tennessee, 19-14 (9-9), SEC

SOS rank: 2
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 10-8, Road: 6-5, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 3-7, Best Case: 26-7, Worst Case: 16-17
Top 50: 7-7, 51-100: 4-4, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 3-1
Key Wins: Belmont (2), Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Georgia, Memphis, Ole Miss
Verdict: in

#65 Marshall, 22-11 (10-8), C-USA

SOS rank: 102
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-3, Road: 6-8, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-2, Best Case: 24-9, Worst Case: 19-14
Top 50: 2-6, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: West Virginia, James Madison, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UCF
Verdict: out

#66 Drexel, 21-10 (12-8), CAA

SOS rank: 121
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-2, Road: 8-8, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 4-1, Best Case: 22-9, Worst Case: 17-14
Top 50: 2-2, 51-100: 4-5, 101-200: 4-1, 201+: 11-2
Key Wins: Old Dominion, Louisville, VCU, Kent State, Rider
Verdict: out

#67 Illinois, 19-13 (9-10), Big Ten

SOS rank: 12
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 14-2, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-4
Close Games: 1-5, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 4-7, 51-100: 5-4, 101-200: 4-0, 201+: 6-2
Key Wins: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oakland, Penn State, Gonzaga, Michigan
Key Losses: Illinois-Chicago
Verdict: in

#68 Alabama, 21-11 (13-5), SEC

SOS rank: 98
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 16-0, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 0-4
Close Games: 4-1, Best Case: 22-10, Worst Case: 17-15
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 5-4, 201+: 11-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia (2), Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#70 Boston College, 20-12 (10-8), ACC

SOS rank: 35
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 23-9, Worst Case: 16-16
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Virginia Tech (2), Bucknell, Texas A&M
Verdict: out

#71 Penn State, 19-13 (12-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 7
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-5, Road: 3-8, Neutral: 3-0
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 22-10, Worst Case: 15-17
Top 50: 3-5, 51-100: 6-6, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Wisconsin (2), Illinois, Fairfield
Verdict: out

#75 Michigan, 20-13 (10-10), Big Ten

SOS rank: 24
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-5, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 3-4, Best Case: 24-9, Worst Case: 17-16
Top 50: 2-9, 51-100: 7-2, 101-200: 2-1, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Oakland, Illinois, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State (2)
Verdict: in

#76 Valparaiso, 23-11 (14-7), Horizon

SOS rank: 159
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-3, Road: 6-8, Neutral: 4-0
Close Games: 5-5, Best Case: 28-6, Worst Case: 18-16
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 1-0, 101-200: 9-4, 201+: 7-3
Key Wins: Missouri State, Oakland, Cleveland State, Butler
Key Losses: Toledo
Verdict: out

#83 Marquette, 20-14 (11-10), Big East

SOS rank: 16
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-4, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 2-3
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 23-11, Worst Case: 17-17
Top 50: 6-12, 51-100: 0-1, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Syracuse, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia (2), Bucknell
Verdict: in

#88 Colorado, 21-13 (10-9), Big XII

SOS rank: 66
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-10, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 23-11, Worst Case: 16-18
Top 50: 5-6, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 3-4, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Texas, Nebraska, Kansas State (3), Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: in

#92 Tulsa, 19-13 (12-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 63
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 12-4, Road: 5-8, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 5-6, Best Case: 25-7, Worst Case: 14-18
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 1-3, 101-200: 6-3, 201+: 8-2
Key Wins: UAB, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Memphis, UTEP
Verdict: out

#97 Michigan State, 19-14 (11-10), Big Ten

SOS rank: 11
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 12-3, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 4-2
Close Games: 5-1, Best Case: 20-13, Worst Case: 14-19
Top 50: 4-8, 51-100: 4-5, 101-200: 4-0, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Purdue, Wisconsin, Oakland, Illinois, Penn State, Washington
Verdict: in

#99 USC, 19-14 (11-9), Pac-10

SOS rank: 37
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-5, Road: 5-8, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-5, Best Case: 24-9, Worst Case: 15-18
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 5-3
Key Wins: Arizona, Texas, Washington State, UCLA, Washington, Tennessee
Verdict: out

Inside The Bubble

2011-03-11T06:24:00.000-08:00

Every few days between now and Selection Sunday, I will provide a look inside the bubble to provide a little more insight as to who is likely to make the cut and who will have their bubble burst.

The tournament watch, posted on Monday of this week, accounted for all games played through Sunday, March 6th. With a few more days and a few more games gone by, some tournament outlooks have changed. A summary of those changes is listed below, accounting for all games through Thursday, March 10th along with the first six games of Friday, March 11th.

Auto-bid changes:

Notre Dame expected to receive Big East auto-bid instead of Pittsburgh
Temple expected to receive A-10 auto-bid instead of Xavier
UTEP expected to receive C-USA auto-bid instead of UAB
Northern Colorado captured the Big Sky auto-bid instead of Montana
Gonzaga captured the WCC auto-bid instead of St. Mary's
Wofford captured the SOCON auto-bid instead of College of Charleston
St. Peter's captured the MAAC auto-bid instead of Iona
Arkansas-Little Rock captured the Sun Belt auto-bid instead of North Texas

New at-large locks:

Pittsburgh is a lock, despite being eliminated from the Big East tournament
Xavier is a lock, despite being eliminated from the A-10 tournament
UAB is a lock, despite being eliminated from the C-USA tournament
Washington is a lock; previously on bubble

New bubble teams:

St. Mary's is now on the bubble; did not capture WCC auto-bid
Villanova is now on the bubble; no longer an at-large lock
UCLA is now on the bubble; no longer an at-large lock
Princeton is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Valparaiso is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
New Mexico is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
USC is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Penn State is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Michigan State is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch

Hoping for a miracle:

College of Charleston joins the miracle watch; did not capture SOCON auto-bid
Iona joins the miracle watch; did not capture MAAC auto-bid
Washington State joins the miracle watch; no longer a bubble team

No chance to make tournament:

North Texas did not capture the Sun Belt auto-bid
Montana did not capture the Big Sky auto-bid
Quinnipiac has dropped from the miracle watch

At present, there are 27 teams on the bubble fighting for 13 available at-large spots. Below, a snapshot of each team's resume will be presented along with their current projected tournament disposition.

#31 Richmond, 24-7 (13-3), A-10

SOS rank: 143
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 12-3, Road: 10-3, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 0-2, Best Case: 26-5, Worst Case: 24-7
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 13-0
Key Wins: Purdue, VCU, Duquesne
Verdict: in

#33 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC

SOS rank: 122
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 15-1, Road: 7-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 27-6, Worst Case: 20-13
Top 50: 2-0, 51-100: 0-4, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 12-0
Key Wins: Wichita State (2)
Verdict: out

#34 Princeton, 24-6 (12-2), Ivy

SOS rank: 206
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 12-0, Road: 10-5, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 7-2, Best Case: 26-4, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 1-2, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 7-0, 201+: 13-2
Key Wins: Harvard, Bucknell, Tulsa
Verdict: out

#36 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon

SOS rank: 159
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 16-2, Road: 9-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-1, Best Case: 27-7, Worst Case: 24-10
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 11-2, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Valparaiso, Kent State, Iona
Verdict: out

#38 Memphis, 23-9 (11-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 59
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 18-2, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 7-1, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 16-16
Top 50: 3-3, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 7-1
Key Wins: UAB (2), Marshall, Southern Miss (3), Gonzaga, UCF (2)
Verdict: in

#39 St. Mary's, 24-8 (12-4), WCC

SOS rank: 153
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 14-2, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 3-2
Close Games: 1-2, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 23-9
Top 50: 2-6, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 8-0, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Gonzaga, St. John's, Long Beach State
Key Losses: San Diego
Verdict: out

#40 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC

SOS rank: 147
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 10-2, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 28-4, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 10-2, 201+: 12-1
Key Wins: Tulsa
Verdict: out

#51 Clemson, 21-10 (10-7), ACC

SOS rank: 56
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-7, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 20-11
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 6-1, 101-200: 8-4, 201+: 6-0
Key Wins: Boston College (2), Virginia Tech, College of Charleston, Florida State, Wofford, Long Beach State
Verdict: in

#52 UCLA, 22-10 (13-6), Pac-10

SOS rank: 53
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 17-3, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 3-2, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 19-13
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Arizona, BYU, USC, Washington State (2), St. John's
Verdict: in

#53 Villanova, 21-11 (9-10), Big East

SOS rank: 24
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 13-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 3-5, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 5-7, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Syracuse, Louisville, Temple, Marquette, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UCLA, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#57 Georgia, 21-11 (10-8), SEC

SOS rank: 36
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-4, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 8-4, Best Case: 25-7, Worst Case: 13-19
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 6-0, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, UAB, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#58 Virginia Tech, 20-10 (10-7), ACC

SOS rank: 76
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 2-4, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Florida State
Verdict: in

#59 VCU, 23-11 (14-7), CAA

SOS rank: 86
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 26-8, Worst Case: 19-15
Top 50: 3-5, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 2-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, UCLA, Wofford, Wichita State
Verdict: out

#61 Tennessee, 19-13 (9-8), SEC

SOS rank: 3
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 10-8, Road: 6-5, Neutral: 3-0
Close Games: 3-7, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 16-16
Top 50: 7-6, 51-100: 4-4, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 3-1
Key Wins: Belmont (2), Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Georgia, Memphis, Ole Miss
Verdict: in

#62 Alabama, 21-10 (13-4), SEC

SOS rank: 103
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 16-0, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 4-1, Best Case: 22-9, Worst Case: 17-14
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 5-4, 201+: 11-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia (2), Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#66 Marshall, 22-11 (10-8), C-USA

SOS rank: 99
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-3, Road: 6-8, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-2, Best Case: 24-9, Worst Case: 19-14
Top 50: 2-6, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: West Virginia, James Madison, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UCF
Verdict: out

#67 New Mexico, 21-11 (9-8), Mountain West

SOS rank: 98
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 13-3, Road: 6-7, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 2-5, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 19-13
Top 50: 2-4, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 6-4, 201+: 9-1
Key Wins: BYU (2), Colorado State (2)
Key Losses: Wyoming
Verdict: out

#68 Illinois, 19-13 (9-10), Big Ten

SOS rank: 9
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 14-2, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-4
Close Games: 1-5, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 4-7, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 6-2
Key Wins: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oakland, Penn State, Gonzaga, Michigan
Key Losses: Illinois-Chicago
Verdict: out

#70 Michigan, 20-12 (10-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 30
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 14-5, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 3-4, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 17-15
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 6-1, 101-200: 3-2, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Oakland, Illinois, Harvard, Clemson, Penn State (2)
Verdict: in

#71 Boston College, 20-12 (10-8), ACC

SOS rank: 35
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 23-9, Worst Case: 16-16
Top 50: 1-6, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Virginia Tech (2), Bucknell
Verdict: out

#75 Valparaiso, 23-11 (14-7), Horizon

SOS rank: 157
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-3, Road: 6-8, Neutral: 4-0
Close Games: 5-5, Best Case: 28-6, Worst Case: 18-16
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 1-0, 101-200: 9-4, 201+: 7-3
Key Wins: Missouri State, Oakland, Cleveland State, Butler
Key Losses: Toledo
Verdict: out

#82 Tulsa, 19-12 (12-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 67
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 12-4, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 5-6, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 14-17
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 1-3, 101-200: 6-3, 201+: 8-2
Key Wins: UAB, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Memphis, UTEP
Verdict: out

#83 Marquette, 20-14 (11-10), Big East

SOS rank: 14
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-4, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 2-3
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 23-11, Worst Case: 17-17
Top 50: 5-12, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Syracuse, Connecticut, Notre Dame, West Virginia (2), Bucknell
Verdict: in

#84 Colorado, 21-12 (10-8), Big XII

SOS rank: 85
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 23-10, Worst Case: 16-17
Top 50: 5-5, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 3-4, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Kansas State (3), Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: in

#89 USC, 19-13 (11-8), Pac-10

SOS rank: 45
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 5-8, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-5, Best Case: 24-8, Worst Case: 15-17
Top 50: 3-3, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 8-3, 201+: 5-3
Key Wins: Arizona, Texas, Washington State, UCLA, Washington, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#91 Penn State, 17-13 (10-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 7
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-5, Road: 3-8, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 20-10, Worst Case: 14-16
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 4-6, 101-200: 6-2, 201+: 5-0
Key Wins: Wisconsin, Illinois, Fairfield, Duquesne
Verdict: out

#97 Michigan State, 18-13 (10-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 13
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 12-3, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-1, Best Case: 19-12, Worst Case: 13-18
Top 50: 3-8, 51-100: 2-4, 101-200: 6-0, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Wisconsin, Oakland, Illinois, Penn State, Washington
Verdict: out

Inside The Bubble

2011-03-09T00:00:00.000-08:00

Every few days between now and Selection Sunday, I will provide a look inside the bubble to provide a little more insight as to who is likely to make the cut and who will have their bubble burst.

The tournament watch posted on Monday of this week accounted for all games played through Sunday, March 6th. With a few more days and a few more games gone by, some tournament outlooks have changed. A summary of those changes is listed below, accounting for all games through Tuesday, March 8th.

Auto-bid changes:

Gonzaga captured the WCC auto-bid instead of St. Mary's
Wofford captured the SOCON auto-bid instead of College of Charleston
St. Peter's captured the MAAC auto-bid instead of Iona
Arkansas-Little Rock captured the Sun Belt auto-bid instead of North Texas

New bubble teams:

St. Mary's is now on the bubble; did not capture WCC auto-bid
Villanova is now on the bubble; no longer an at-large lock
Princeton is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Valparaiso is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch

Hoping for a miracle:

College of Charleston joins the miracle watch; did not capture SOCON auto-bid
Iona joins the miracle watch; did not capture MAAC auto-bid

No chance to make tournament:

North Texas did not capture the Sun Belt auto-bid
Quinnipiac has dropped from the miracle watch

At present, there are 25 teams on the bubble fighting for 14 available at-large spots. Below, a snapshot of each team's resume will be presented along with their current projected tournament disposition.

#32 Richmond, 24-7 (13-3), A-10

SOS rank: 138
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 12-3, Road: 10-3, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 0-2, Best Case: 26-5, Worst Case: 24-7
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 13-0
Key Wins: Purdue, VCU, Duquesne
Verdict: in

#35 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC

SOS rank: 124
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 15-1, Road: 7-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 27-6, Worst Case: 20-13
Top 50: 2-0, 51-100: 0-4, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 12-0
Key Wins: Wichita State (2)
Verdict: out

#36 Princeton, 24-6 (12-2), Ivy

SOS rank: 204
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 12-0, Road: 10-5, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 7-2, Best Case: 26-4, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 1-2, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 7-0, 201+: 13-2
Key Wins: Harvard, Bucknell, Tulsa
Verdict: out

#37 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon

SOS rank: 158
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 16-2, Road: 9-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-1, Best Case: 27-7, Worst Case: 24-10
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 11-2, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Valparaiso, Kent State, Iona
Verdict: out

#39 UTEP, 23-8 (11-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 135
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 17-2, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-2, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 21-10
Top 50: 1-2, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 9-3, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa, Michigan
Verdict: out

#40 St. Mary's, 24-8 (12-4), WCC

SOS rank: 156
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 14-2, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 3-2
Close Games: 1-2, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 23-9
Top 50: 2-6, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 8-0, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Gonzaga, St. John's
Key Losses: San Diego
Verdict: out

#42 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC

SOS rank: 147
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 10-2, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 28-4, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 10-2, 201+: 12-1
Key Wins: Tulsa
Verdict: out

#46 Memphis, 22-9 (10-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 63
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 18-2, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 0-1
Close Games: 6-1, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 16-15
Top 50: 3-3, 51-100: 5-3, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 7-1
Key Wins: UAB (2), Marshall, Southern Miss (2), Gonzaga, UCF (2)
Verdict: in

#51 Villanova, 21-11 (9-10), Big East

SOS rank: 22
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 13-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 3-5, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 18-14
Top 50: 6-7, 51-100: 2-1, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Syracuse, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville, Temple, Marquette, UCLA, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#53 Washington, 20-10 (11-7), Pac-10

SOS rank: 52
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-2, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 3-3, 51-100: 5-4, 101-200: 6-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Arizona, USC, UCLA (2)
Verdict: in

#54 Georgia, 20-10 (9-7), SEC

SOS rank: 29
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 12-4, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 8-3, Best Case: 23-7, Worst Case: 12-18
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 6-0, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, UAB, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#56 Clemson, 20-10 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 58
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-7, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 5-1, 101-200: 8-4, 201+: 6-0
Key Wins: Boston College, Virginia Tech, College of Charleston, Florida State, Wofford
Verdict: in

#58 VCU, 23-11 (14-7), CAA

SOS rank: 82
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 26-8, Worst Case: 19-15
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 5-3, 101-200: 2-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, Drexel (2), UCLA, Wofford, Wichita State
Verdict: in

#60 Illinois, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 12
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 14-2, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 1-5, Best Case: 24-7, Worst Case: 18-13
Top 50: 4-7, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 6-2
Key Wins: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oakland, Gonzaga, Michigan
Key Losses: Illinois-Chicago
Verdict: in

#61 Virginia Tech, 19-10 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 71
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 18-11
Top 50: 2-4, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 7-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Florida State
Verdict: in

#63 Marshall, 21-10 (9-7), C-USA

SOS rank: 103
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-3, Road: 6-7, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 3-2, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 18-13
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: West Virginia, James Madison, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UCF
Verdict: out

#64 Boston College, 19-11 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 27
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 22-8, Worst Case: 15-15
Top 50: 1-6, 51-100: 4-1, 101-200: 10-4, 201+: 4-0
Key Wins: Virginia Tech (2), Bucknell, Texas A&M
Verdict: in

#66 Tennessee, 18-13 (8-8), SEC

SOS rank: 3
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 10-8, Road: 6-5, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-7, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 15-16
Top 50: 7-6, 51-100: 4-4, 101-200: 3-2, 201+: 4-1
Key Wins: Belmont (2), Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Georgia, Memphis, Ole Miss
Verdict: in

#68 Alabama, 20-10 (12-4), SEC

SOS rank: 107
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 16-0, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 0-3
Close Games: 3-1, Best Case: 21-9, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 6-4, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#74 Washington State, 19-11 (9-9), Pac-10

SOS rank: 73
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 11-4, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 2-3, Best Case: 22-8, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 1-6, 51-100: 5-2, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: USC, Gonzaga, Washington (2)
Verdict: out

#77 Michigan, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 33
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-5, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 3-4, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 16-15
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 6-2, 101-200: 2-1, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Oakland, Harvard, Clemson
Verdict: in

#79 Valparaiso, 23-11 (14-7), Horizon

SOS rank: 159
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-3, Road: 6-8, Neutral: 4-0
Close Games: 5-5, Best Case: 28-6, Worst Case: 18-16
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 0-0, 101-200: 10-4, 201+: 7-3
Key Wins: Missouri State, Oakland, Cleveland State, Butler
Key Losses: Toledo
Verdict: out

#81 Marquette, 19-13 (10-9), Big East

SOS rank: 23
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-4, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 22-10, Worst Case: 16-16
Top 50: 4-11, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Syracuse, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#87 Tulsa, 18-12 (11-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 60
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 12-4, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 5-6, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 13-17
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 1-3, 101-200: 6-3, 201+: 7-2
Key Wins: UAB, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Memphis, UTEP
Verdict: out

#96 Colorado, 19-12 (8-8), Big XII

SOS rank: 85
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 4-2, Best Case: 21-10, Worst Case: 15-16
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 2-4, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Kansas State (2), Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: out

2011 NCAA Baseball Poll

2011-03-07T12:00:00.000-08:00

The first poll of the 2011 NCAA Division I Baseball season will be unveiled next Monday, March 14th. There are 300 active programs this season; all of which will be ranked.

The poll will be released every Monday through the conclusion of conference tournaments. There will be a poll release following the completion of the Regionals, another after the Super Regionals, and then the final poll of the season will be released once the College World Series is complete.

Conference Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule Rankings will be released concurrently with the Rogers Poll throughout the season. Regional projections will be provided every week beginning on Monday, April 25th.

Check out the final rankings for the 2010 season here.

Inside The Bubble

2011-03-07T00:05:00.000-08:00

Every few days between now and Selection Sunday, I will provide a look inside the bubble to provide a little more insight as to who is likely to make the cut and who will have their bubble burst.

The tournament watch posted earlier projected all 31 automatic bids, 24 projected at-large "locks", and separated 22 bubble teams into 2 categories: those 13 expected to receive at-large berths and those 9 that are not. 34 teams were also listed on miracle watch, all likely destined for the NIT, CBI, or CIT post-season tournaments.

At present, there are 22 teams on the bubble fighting for 13 available at-large spots. Below, a snapshot of each team's resume will be presented along with their current projected tournament disposition.

#31 Richmond, 24-7 (13-3), A-10

SOS rank: 134
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 12-3, Road: 10-3, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 0-2, Best Case: 26-5, Worst Case: 24-7
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 13-0
Key Wins: Purdue, VCU, Duquesne
Verdict: in

#36 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC

SOS rank: 124
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 15-1, Road: 7-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 5-2, Best Case: 27-6, Worst Case: 20-13
Top 50: 2-0, 51-100: 0-4, 101-200: 11-4, 201+: 12-0
Key Wins: Wichita State (2)
Verdict: out

#37 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon

SOS rank: 156
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 16-2, Road: 9-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-1, Best Case: 27-7, Worst Case: 24-10
Top 50: 0-5, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 11-2, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Valparaiso, Kent State, Iona
Verdict: out

#40 UTEP, 23-8 (11-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 137
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 17-2, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 2-2, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 21-10
Top 50: 1-2, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 9-3, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa, Michigan
Verdict: in

#42 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC

SOS rank: 144
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 10-2, Neutral: 2-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 28-4, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 10-2, 201+: 12-1
Key Wins: Tulsa
Verdict: out

#46 Memphis, 22-9 (10-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 63
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 18-2, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 0-1
Close Games: 6-1, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 16-15
Top 50: 2-3, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 7-1
Key Wins: UAB (2), Marshall, Southern Miss (2), Gonzaga, UCF (2)
Verdict: in

#51 Gonzaga, 23-9 (12-3), WCC

SOS rank: 125
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 14-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 26-6, Worst Case: 20-12
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 5-2, 201+: 11-0
Key Wins: Xavier, Portland (2), Marquette, St. Mary's, Oklahoma State
Verdict: in

#53 VCU, 23-10 (14-6), CAA

SOS rank: 89
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-3, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 26-7, Worst Case: 19-14
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 5-3, 101-200: 2-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, George Mason, James Madison, Drexel (2), UCLA, Wichita State
Verdict: in

#54 Washington, 20-10 (11-7), Pac-10

SOS rank: 51
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-2, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 3-3, 51-100: 5-3, 101-200: 6-3, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Arizona, USC, Portland, UCLA (2)
Verdict: in

#55 Georgia, 20-10 (9-7), SEC

SOS rank: 28
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 12-4, Road: 7-4, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 8-3, Best Case: 23-7, Worst Case: 12-18
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 6-0, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, UAB, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#57 Clemson, 20-10 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 58
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-7, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 4-1, 101-200: 8-4, 201+: 6-0
Key Wins: Boston College, Virginia Tech, College of Charleston, Florida State
Verdict: in

#61 Illinois, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 13
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 14-2, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 1-5, Best Case: 24-7, Worst Case: 18-13
Top 50: 2-7, 51-100: 5-1, 101-200: 6-2, 201+: 6-2
Key Wins: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oakland, Gonzaga, Michigan
Key Losses: Illinois-Chicago
Verdict: in

#62 Virginia Tech, 19-10 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 71
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 18-11
Top 50: 2-4, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 7-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Florida State
Verdict: in

#64 Marshall, 21-10 (9-7), C-USA

SOS rank: 101
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-3, Road: 6-7, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 3-2, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 18-13
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 4-3, 101-200: 5-1, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: West Virginia, James Madison, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UCF
Verdict: out

#65 Boston College, 19-11 (9-7), ACC

SOS rank: 25
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 13-4, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 22-8, Worst Case: 15-15
Top 50: 1-6, 51-100: 4-1, 101-200: 10-4, 201+: 4-0
Key Wins: Virginia Tech (2), Bucknell, Texas A&M
Verdict: out

#66 Tennessee, 18-13 (8-8), SEC

SOS rank: 3
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 10-8, Road: 6-5, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-7, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 15-16
Top 50: 8-6, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 3-2, 201+: 4-1
Key Wins: Belmont (2), Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Georgia, Memphis, Ole Miss
Verdict: in

#68 Alabama, 20-10 (12-4), SEC

SOS rank: 107
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 16-0, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 0-3
Close Games: 3-1, Best Case: 21-9, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 6-4, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#74 Washington State, 19-11 (9-9), Pac-10

SOS rank: 75
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 11-4, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 2-3, Best Case: 22-8, Worst Case: 17-13
Top 50: 0-6, 51-100: 6-2, 101-200: 7-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: USC, Portland, Gonzaga, Washington (2)
Verdict: out

#78 Michigan, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten

SOS rank: 34
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 14-5, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 3-4, Best Case: 23-8, Worst Case: 16-15
Top 50: 1-8, 51-100: 5-2, 101-200: 4-1, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Oakland, Harvard, Clemson
Verdict: out

#85 Marquette, 18-13 (9-9), Big East

SOS rank: 19
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 14-4, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 21-10, Worst Case: 15-16
Top 50: 4-11, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 4-1, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Syracuse, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#86 Tulsa, 18-12 (11-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 61
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 12-4, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 5-6, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 13-17
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 1-3, 101-200: 6-3, 201+: 7-2
Key Wins: UAB, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Memphis, UTEP
Verdict: out

#95 Colorado, 19-12 (8-8), Big XII

SOS rank: 85
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 15-2, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 4-2, Best Case: 21-10, Worst Case: 15-16
Top 50: 4-5, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 2-4, 201+: 9-0
Key Wins: Kansas State (2), Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: out

2011 Tournament Watch

2011-03-07T00:00:00.000-08:00

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the March 7th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

Over the past three seasons, every team listed in my "automatic qualifiers" and "at-large locks" categories have appeared in the NCAA tournament. This has accounted for 156 of the 195 tournament berths over that period. In both 2007-08 and 2009-10, all of the remaining teams to make the tournament (12 in '07-08, 15 in '09-10) appeared in my "bubble" list. In 2008-09, 10 of the remaining 12 teams to make the tournament appeared in my "bubble" list while the other two were in the "miracle watch".

A heuristic update made prior to the 2009-10 season would have put the two "miracle watch" teams from '08-09 on the "bubble". Also of note, every eligible team that has appeared in my "bubble" list has appeared in either the NCAA tournament or the NIT with the exception of last year's Arizona team.

The final tournament projections over the last three years, which use this tournament watch data to predict the complete 65-team fields, have correctly placed 190 of the 195 teams (97%).

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Those that have already earned an auto-bid are denoted in italics.

#1 Kansas, 29-2 (14-2), Big XII, SOS: 16
#2 Ohio State, 29-2 (16-2), Big Ten, SOS: 33
#3 San Diego State, 29-2 (14-2), Mountain West, SOS: 91
#5 Pittsburgh, 27-4 (15-3), Big East, SOS: 31
#6 Duke, 27-4 (13-3), ACC, SOS: 36
#7 Utah State, 28-3 (15-1), WAC, SOS: 162
#11 Florida, 24-6 (13-3), SEC, SOS: 10
#14 Arizona, 25-6 (14-4), Pac-10, SOS: 55
#15 Belmont, 30-4 (22-1), A-Sun, SOS: 276
#16 Old Dominion, 26-6 (16-4), CAA, SOS: 83
#19 Xavier, 24-6 (15-1), A-10, SOS: 60
#26 UAB, 22-7 (12-4), C-USA, SOS: 65
#29 Long Island, 26-5 (18-2), NEC, SOS: 290
#30 Harvard, 23-5 (12-2), Ivy, SOS: 217
#35 St. Mary's, 24-7 (12-3), WCC, SOS: 164
#48 Butler, 22-9 (14-5), Horizon, SOS: 94
#49 College of Charleston, 24-9 (16-4), SOCON, SOS: 169
#52 Bucknell, 24-8 (15-1), Patriot, SOS: 212
#56 Oakland, 23-9 (18-1), Summit, SOS: 170
#59 Iona, 22-10 (15-5), MAAC, SOS: 135
#60 Morehead State, 24-9 (15-5), OVC, SOS: 228
#79 Kent State, 21-10 (12-4), MAC, SOS: 168
#87 Long Beach State, 20-10 (14-2), Big West, SOS: 181
#90 Montana, 20-9 (12-4), Big Sky, SOS: 278
#100 Hampton, 21-8 (11-5), MEAC, SOS: 329
#110 Indiana State, 20-13 (15-6), MVC, SOS: 109
#112 North Texas, 21-10 (10-8), Sun Belt, SOS: 299
#122 Boston, 20-13 (14-4), AEC, SOS: 210
#130 McNeese State, 19-10 (11-5), Southland, SOS: 323
#140 UNC Asheville, 19-13 (14-7), Big South, SOS: 250
#144 Texas Southern, 18-11 (16-2), SWAC, SOS: 320

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (24)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#4 BYU, 28-3 (14-2), Mountain West, SOS: 52
#8 Notre Dame, 25-5 (14-4), Big East, SOS: 24
#9 Texas, 25-6 (13-3), Big XII, SOS: 26
#10 Purdue, 25-6 (14-4), Big Ten, SOS: 20
#12 North Carolina, 24-6 (14-2), ACC, SOS: 12
#13 Syracuse, 25-6 (12-6), Big East, SOS: 32
#17 Wisconsin, 23-7 (13-5), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#18 George Mason, 26-6 (17-3), CAA, SOS: 99
#20 Kentucky, 22-8 (10-6), SEC, SOS: 9
#21 UNLV, 23-7 (11-5), Mountain West, SOS: 43
#22 Temple, 24-6 (14-2), A-10, SOS: 96
#23 Louisville, 23-8 (12-6), Big East, SOS: 17
#24 Georgetown, 21-9 (10-8), Big East, SOS: 1
#25 Cincinnati, 24-7 (11-7), Big East, SOS: 67
#27 Vanderbilt, 21-9 (9-7), SEC, SOS: 14
#28 Texas A&M, 23-7 (10-6), Big XII, SOS: 84
#32 Connecticut, 21-9 (9-9), Big East, SOS: 8
#33 Kansas State, 22-9 (10-6), Big XII, SOS: 18
#34 West Virginia, 20-10 (11-7), Big East, SOS: 2
#39 UCLA, 22-9 (13-5), Pac-10, SOS: 48
#41 Villanova, 21-10 (9-9), Big East, SOS: 15
#44 St. John's, 20-10 (12-6), Big East, SOS: 5
#45 Missouri, 22-9 (8-8), Big XII, SOS: 66
#47 Florida State, 21-9 (11-5), ACC, SOS: 74

"INSIDE THE BUBBLE" (13)

Teams on the bubble boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. The following are expected to earn an at-large berth from the selection committee. For a more detailed look inside the bubble, click here.

#31 Richmond, 24-7 (13-3), A-10, SOS: 134
#40 UTEP, 23-8 (11-5), C-USA, SOS: 137
#46 Memphis, 22-9 (10-6), C-USA, SOS: 63
#51 Gonzaga, 23-9 (12-3), WCC, SOS: 125
#53 VCU, 23-10 (14-6), CAA, SOS: 89
#54 Washington, 20-10 (11-7), Pac-10, SOS: 51
#55 Georgia, 20-10 (9-7), SEC, SOS: 28
#57 Clemson, 20-10 (9-7), ACC, SOS: 58
#61 Illinois, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#62 Virginia Tech, 19-10 (9-7), ACC, SOS: 71
#66 Tennessee, 18-13 (8-8), SEC, SOS: 3
#68 Alabama, 20-10 (12-4), SEC, SOS: 107
#85 Marquette, 18-13 (9-9), Big East, SOS: 19

"OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE" (9)

Teams on the bubble boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament. The following are not expected to earn an at-large berth from the selection committee. For a more detailed look inside the bubble, click here.

#36 Missouri State, 25-8 (17-4), MVC, SOS: 124
#37 Cleveland State, 26-8 (15-6), Horizon, SOS: 156
#42 Wichita State, 24-8 (15-5), MVC, SOS: 144
#64 Marshall, 21-10 (9-7), C-USA, SOS: 101
#65 Boston College, 19-11 (9-7), ACC, SOS: 25
#74 Washington State, 19-11 (9-9), Pac-10, SOS: 75
#78 Michigan, 19-12 (9-9), Big Ten, SOS: 34
#86 Tulsa, 18-12 (11-5), C-USA, SOS: 61
#95 Colorado, 19-12 (8-8), Big XII, SOS: 85

"MIRACLE WATCH" (34) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#38 Princeton, 23-6 (11-2), Ivy, SOS: 211
#43 Coastal Carolina, 28-5 (18-3), Big South, SOS: 328
#50 Fairfield, 24-7 (16-4), MAAC, SOS: 255
#58 Vermont, 23-8 (14-4), AEC, SOS: 231
#63 Southern Miss, 21-9 (9-7), C-USA, SOS: 148
#67 Murray State, 23-8 (14-5), OVC, SOS: 287
#69 UCF, 19-10 (6-10), C-USA, SOS: 80
#70 Colorado State, 19-11 (9-7), Mountain West, SOS: 49
#71 Drexel, 21-10 (12-8), CAA, SOS: 121
#72 Rider, 23-10 (14-6), MAAC, SOS: 187
#73 Nebraska, 19-11 (7-9), Big XII, SOS: 62
#75 James Madison, 21-11 (10-9), CAA, SOS: 112
#76 New Mexico, 20-11 (8-8), Mountain West, SOS: 100
#77 Valparaiso, 23-11 (14-7), Horizon, SOS: 157
#80 American, 22-9 (12-4), Patriot, SOS: 271
#81 Portland, 20-11 (7-8), WCC, SOS: 142
#82 Ole Miss, 19-12 (7-9), SEC, SOS: 70
#83 Oklahoma State, 18-12 (6-10), Big XII, SOS: 42
#84 Quinnipiac, 22-9 (14-6), NEC, SOS: 291
#92 USC, 18-13 (10-8), Pac-10, SOS: 40
#94 Penn State, 16-13 (9-9), Big Ten, SOS: 6
#96 California, 17-13 (10-8), Pac-10, SOS: 21
#97 Minnesota, 17-13 (6-12), Big Ten, SOS: 23
#101 Michigan State, 17-13 (9-9), Big Ten, SOS: 11
#102 Northwestern, 17-12 (7-11), Big Ten, SOS: 56
#103 Miami, 18-13 (6-10), ACC, SOS: 45
#104 Baylor, 18-12 (7-9), Big XII, SOS: 73
#105 Arkansas, 18-12 (7-9), SEC, SOS: 98
#106 Maryland, 18-13 (7-9), ACC, SOS: 59
#117 Mississippi State, 17-13 (9-7), SEC, SOS: 76
#131 Iowa State, 16-15 (3-13), Big XII, SOS: 64
#139 Virginia, 16-14 (7-9), ACC, SOS: 86
#143 NC State, 15-15 (5-11), ACC, SOS: 39
#158 Stanford, 15-15 (7-11), Pac-10, SOS: 81

Inside The Bubble

2011-03-03T06:35:00.000-08:00

Every few days between now and Selection Sunday, I will provide a look inside the bubble to provide a little more insight as to who is likely to make the cut and who will have their bubble burst.

The tournament watch posted on Monday of this week accounted for all games played through Sunday, February 27th. With a few more days and a few more games gone by, some tournament outlooks have changed. A summary of those changes is listed below.

New bubble teams:

UTEP is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Nebraska is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Colorado State is now on the bubble; previously on miracle watch
Tulsa is now on the bubble; previously not considered for tournament

Hoping for a miracle:

James Madison is on miracle watch; was on bubble
Illinois is on miracle watch; was on bubble
Marshall is on miracle watch; was on bubble
East Tennessee State joins the miracle watch
New Mexico joins the miracle watch
Maryland is on miracle watch; was on bubble
Baylor is on miracle watch; was on bubble
Arkansas is on miracle watch; was on bubble
Penn State is on miracle watch; was on bubble

SOS rank: 147
Last 12 games: 10-2
Home: 11-3, Road: 10-3, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 0-2, Best Case: 25-5, Worst Case: 23-7
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 7-1, 201+: 13-1
Key Wins: Purdue, VCU
Verdict: in

#36 Wichita State, 23-7 (14-4), MVC

SOS rank: 134
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-4, Road: 10-2, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 27-3, Worst Case: 19-11
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 0-1, 101-200: 12-1, 201+: 10-1
Key Wins: Tulsa
Verdict: out

#46 UTEP, 22-8 (10-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 135
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 17-2, Road: 4-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 1-2, Best Case: 24-6, Worst Case: 21-9
Top 50: 1-2, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 9-3, 201+: 9-1
Key Wins: Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa, Michigan
Verdict: in

#47 Georgia, 20-9 (9-6), SEC

SOS rank: 30
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-4, Road: 7-3, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 8-3, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 12-17
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 5-0, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Kentucky, UAB, Tennessee
Verdict: in

#48 Memphis, 21-9 (9-6), C-USA

SOS rank: 54
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 17-2, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 0-1
Close Games: 6-1, Best Case: 22-8, Worst Case: 15-15
Top 50: 2-3, 51-100: 7-2, 101-200: 5-3, 201+: 7-1
Key Wins: UAB (2), Marshall, Southern Miss (2), Gonzaga, UCF (2)
Verdict: in

#50 Washington, 19-9 (10-6), Pac-10

SOS rank: 55
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 13-1, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 1-3, Best Case: 22-6, Worst Case: 18-10
Top 50: 2-3, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 8-2, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Arizona, USC, Portland, UCLA
Verdict: in

#51 Florida State, 20-9 (10-5), ACC

SOS rank: 74
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-3, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 1-2, Best Case: 22-7, Worst Case: 19-10
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 5-4, 101-200: 3-0, 201+: 11-1
Key Wins: Duke, Boston College, Clemson
Key Losses: Auburn
Verdict: in

#52 Butler, 21-9 (13-5), Horizon

SOS rank: 99
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 12-2, Road: 6-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 3-5, Best Case: 26-4, Worst Case: 18-12
Top 50: 2-3, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 10-4, 201+: 5-1
Key Wins: Valparaiso, Cleveland State (2), Washington State, Florida State
Key Losses: Youngstown State
Verdict: in

#54 Gonzaga, 22-9 (11-3), WCC

SOS rank: 124
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 14-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 1-0
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 25-6, Worst Case: 19-12
Top 50: 2-5, 51-100: 5-2, 101-200: 3-2, 201+: 11-0
Key Wins: Xavier, Portland (2), Marquette, St. Mary's, Oklahoma State
Verdict: in

#58 Virginia Tech, 19-9 (9-6), ACC

SOS rank: 78
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 11-3, Road: 6-5, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 23-5, Worst Case: 18-10
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 5-2, 101-200: 4-2, 201+: 9-1
Key Wins: Duke, Oklahoma State, Maryland (2), Florida State
Verdict: in

#60 Clemson, 19-10 (8-7), ACC

SOS rank: 64
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-2, Road: 3-7, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 1-4, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 18-11
Top 50: 0-4, 51-100: 6-3, 101-200: 5-3, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Boston College, College of Charleston, Florida State
Verdict: in

#62 VCU, 21-10 (12-6), CAA

SOS rank: 97
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 11-3, Road: 8-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 24-7, Worst Case: 18-13
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 3-0, 201+: 12-3
Key Wins: Old Dominion, James Madison, Drexel, UCLA, Wichita State
Verdict: in

#63 Nebraska, 19-10 (7-8), Big XII

SOS rank: 62
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 17-2, Road: 1-6, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 15-14
Top 50: 3-6, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 3-3, 201+: 10-0
Key Wins: Texas, USC, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Verdict: in

#64 Tennessee, 17-12 (7-7), SEC

SOS rank: 3
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 10-7, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 2-0
Close Games: 3-7, Best Case: 24-5, Worst Case: 14-15
Top 50: 9-5, 51-100: 2-5, 101-200: 3-1, 201+: 3-1
Key Wins: Belmont (2), Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt (2), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Georgia, Memphis
Verdict: in

#65 Colorado State, 19-10 (9-6), Mountain West

SOS rank: 61
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 9-4, Road: 7-5, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 22-7, Worst Case: 16-13
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 3-1, 101-200: 7-4, 201+: 7-0
Key Wins: UNLV, Southern Miss, New Mexico
Verdict: out

#69 Boston College, 18-11 (8-7), ACC

SOS rank: 15
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 12-4, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 4-3, Best Case: 21-8, Worst Case: 14-15
Top 50: 1-5, 51-100: 5-4, 101-200: 9-2, 201+: 3-0
Key Wins: Maryland (2), Virginia Tech (2), Bucknell, Texas A&M
Verdict: out

#73 Washington State, 18-10 (8-8), Pac-10

SOS rank: 80
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 10-3, Road: 5-6, Neutral: 3-1
Close Games: 2-3, Best Case: 21-7, Worst Case: 16-12
Top 50: 2-4, 51-100: 3-2, 101-200: 7-3, 201+: 6-1
Key Wins: Portland, Gonzaga, Washington (2)
Verdict: out

#79 Alabama, 19-10 (11-4), SEC

SOS rank: 110
Last 12 games: 9-3
Home: 15-0, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 0-3
Close Games: 3-1, Best Case: 20-9, Worst Case: 16-13
Top 50: 1-3, 51-100: 3-3, 101-200: 4-3, 201+: 11-1
Key Wins: Kentucky, Tennessee
Verdict: out

#80 Marquette, 18-12 (9-8), Big East

SOS rank: 19
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 14-4, Road: 4-6, Neutral: 0-2
Close Games: 3-3, Best Case: 21-9, Worst Case: 15-15
Top 50: 4-11, 51-100: 1-1, 101-200: 5-0, 201+: 8-0
Key Wins: Syracuse, West Virginia, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Bucknell
Verdict: in

#90 Michigan State, 17-12 (9-8), Big Ten

SOS rank: 12
Last 12 games: 5-7
Home: 12-3, Road: 3-8, Neutral: 2-1
Close Games: 5-1, Best Case: 18-11, Worst Case: 12-17
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 4-2, 101-200: 6-1, 201+: 4-1
Key Wins: Wisconsin, Oakland, Illinois, Minnesota (2), Washington
Verdict: out

#96 USC, 17-12 (9-7), Pac-10

SOS rank: 48
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 12-4, Road: 4-7, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 3-5, Best Case: 22-7, Worst Case: 14-15
Top 50: 3-4, 51-100: 2-2, 101-200: 7-3, 201+: 5-3
Key Wins: Arizona, Texas, Washington State, UCLA, Tennessee
Verdict: out

#101 Tulsa, 17-12 (10-5), C-USA

SOS rank: 65
Last 12 games: 8-4
Home: 11-4, Road: 5-7, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 5-6, Best Case: 23-6, Worst Case: 12-17
Top 50: 4-4, 51-100: 0-3, 101-200: 6-2, 201+: 7-3
Key Wins: UAB, Missouri State, Memphis, UTEP
Verdict: out

#105 California, 16-13 (9-8), Pac-10

SOS rank: 16
Last 12 games: 7-5
Home: 10-6, Road: 5-5, Neutral: 1-2
Close Games: 4-5, Best Case: 21-8, Worst Case: 12-17
Top 50: 2-8, 51-100: 3-4, 101-200: 4-1, 201+: 7-0
Key Wins: Temple, USC, Washington State, UCLA, New Mexico
Verdict: out

#106 Colorado, 18-12 (7-8), Big XII

SOS rank: 83
Last 12 games: 4-8
Home: 14-2, Road: 3-9, Neutral: 1-1
Close Games: 4-2, Best Case: 20-10, Worst Case: 14-16
Top 50: 4-6, 51-100: 2-3, 101-200: 3-2, 201+: 8-1
Key Wins: Kansas State (2), Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Colorado State
Verdict: out

#118 Mississippi State, 16-13 (8-7), SEC

SOS rank: 66
Last 12 games: 6-6
Home: 11-5, Road: 4-5, Neutral: 1-3
Close Games: 4-4, Best Case: 20-9, Worst Case: 12-17
Top 50: 1-4, 51-100: 5-6, 101-200: 3-1, 201+: 7-2
Key Wins: Florida, Tennessee
Key Losses: Auburn
Verdict: out

2011 Tournament Watch

2011-02-28T08:09:00.000-08:00

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the February 28th Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Kansas, 27-2 (12-2), Big XII, SOS: 25
#2 Ohio State, 27-2 (14-2), Big Ten, SOS: 35
#3 BYU, 27-2 (13-1), Mountain West, SOS: 45
#5 Duke, 26-3 (12-2), ACC, SOS: 46
#6 Pittsburgh, 25-4 (13-3), Big East, SOS: 21
#9 Utah State, 26-3 (13-1), WAC, SOS: 148
#12 George Mason, 25-5 (16-2), CAA, SOS: 93
#13 Florida, 22-6 (11-3), SEC, SOS: 11
#16 Arizona, 23-6 (12-4), Pac-10, SOS: 50
#17 Belmont, 27-4 (19-1), A-Sun, SOS: 250
#23 Xavier, 22-6 (13-1), A-10, SOS: 52
#28 UAB, 20-7 (10-4), C-USA, SOS: 64
#32 Missouri State, 23-7 (15-3), MVC, SOS: 122
#33 Long Island, 24-5 (16-2), NEC, SOS: 290
#35 Princeton, 22-5 (10-1), Ivy, SOS: 214
#41 Cleveland State, 24-7 (13-5), Horizon, SOS: 161
#42 St. Mary's, 23-7 (11-3), WCC, SOS: 166
#43 Coastal Carolina, 26-4 (16-2), Big South, SOS: 332
#46 Fairfield, 23-6 (15-3), MAAC, SOS: 245
#50 Vermont, 22-7 (13-3), AEC, SOS: 212
#55 College of Charleston, 22-9 (14-4), SOCON, SOS: 162
#58 Oakland, 22-9 (17-1), Summit, SOS: 159
#59 Bucknell, 22-8 (13-1), Patriot, SOS: 202
#60 Murray State, 23-7 (14-4), OVC, SOS: 291
#94 Kent State, 19-10 (10-4), MAC, SOS: 170
#97 FAU, 21-9 (13-3), Sun Belt, SOS: 246
#98 Montana, 20-9 (12-4), Big Sky, SOS: 279
#102 Long Beach State, 19-10 (13-2), Big West, SOS: 184
#106 Hampton, 20-8 (10-5), MEAC, SOS: 327
#120 Stephen F. Austin, 18-8 (9-5), Southland, SOS: 341
#140 Texas Southern, 16-10 (14-1), SWAC, SOS: 302

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (23)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#4 San Diego State, 27-2 (12-2), Mountain West, SOS: 80
#7 Purdue, 24-5 (13-3), Big Ten, SOS: 13
#8 Texas, 24-5 (12-2), Big XII, SOS: 29
#10 Notre Dame, 23-5 (12-4), Big East, SOS: 31
#11 Syracuse, 24-6 (11-6), Big East, SOS: 18
#14 North Carolina, 22-6 (12-2), ACC, SOS: 14
#15 Wisconsin, 22-6 (12-4), Big Ten, SOS: 27
#18 Georgetown, 21-8 (10-7), Big East, SOS: 1
#19 Old Dominion, 24-6 (14-4), CAA, SOS: 73
#20 Vanderbilt, 21-7 (9-5), SEC, SOS: 23
#21 Louisville, 22-7 (11-5), Big East, SOS: 16
#22 Connecticut, 21-7 (9-7), Big East, SOS: 9
#24 UNLV, 22-7 (10-5), Mountain West, SOS: 39
#25 Temple, 22-6 (12-2), A-10, SOS: 87
#26 Kentucky, 20-8 (8-6), SEC, SOS: 10
#27 Texas A&M, 22-6 (9-5), Big XII, SOS: 88
#29 Cincinnati, 22-7 (9-7), Big East, SOS: 69
#30 Missouri, 22-7 (8-6), Big XII, SOS: 82
#31 Villanova, 21-8 (9-7), Big East, SOS: 34
#34 St. John's, 19-9 (11-5), Big East, SOS: 4
#38 UCLA, 21-8 (12-4), Pac-10, SOS: 57
#44 Kansas State, 20-9 (8-6), Big XII, SOS: 20
#45 West Virginia, 18-10 (9-7), Big East, SOS: 2

"BUBBLE" (31 teams for 14 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament and are currently expected to earn a berth.

#37 Richmond, 22-7 (11-3), A-10, SOS: 135
#40 Memphis, 21-8 (9-5), C-USA, SOS: 55
#47 Florida State, 20-8 (10-4), ACC, SOS: 86
#48 Virginia Tech, 19-8 (9-5), ACC, SOS: 78
#49 Georgia, 19-9 (8-6), SEC, SOS: 26
#53 Washington, 19-9 (10-6), Pac-10, SOS: 60
#54 Butler, 21-9 (13-5), Horizon, SOS: 99
#56 Clemson, 19-9 (8-6), ACC, SOS: 84
#57 Gonzaga, 21-9 (11-3), WCC, SOS: 114
#61 Illinois, 18-11 (8-8), Big Ten, SOS: 12
#63 Tennessee, 17-12 (7-7), SEC, SOS: 3
#68 Marquette, 18-11 (9-7), Big East, SOS: 19
#69 Alabama, 19-9 (11-3), SEC, SOS: 120
#92 Colorado, 18-11 (7-7), Big XII, SOS: 81

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament, but are not currently expected to earn a berth.

#36 Wichita State, 23-7 (14-4), MVC, SOS: 134
#62 VCU, 21-10 (12-6), CAA, SOS: 98
#64 Marshall, 20-9 (8-6), C-USA, SOS: 107
#65 James Madison, 21-10 (10-8), CAA, SOS: 104
#75 Washington State, 18-10 (8-8), Pac-10, SOS: 76
#79 Boston College, 17-11 (7-7), ACC, SOS: 15
#83 Maryland, 18-11 (7-7), ACC, SOS: 59
#86 Arkansas, 18-10 (7-7), SEC, SOS: 102
#87 Baylor, 18-10 (7-7), Big XII, SOS: 85
#93 Penn State, 15-12 (8-8), Big Ten, SOS: 6
#95 Michigan State, 16-12 (8-8), Big Ten, SOS: 7
#96 USC, 17-12 (9-7), Pac-10, SOS: 51
#104 California, 16-13 (9-8), Pac-10, SOS: 17
#127 Mississippi State, 15-13 (7-7), SEC, SOS: 68

"MIRACLE WATCH" (27) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#39 Harvard, 21-5 (10-2), Ivy, SOS: 231
#51 Southern Miss, 21-7 (9-5), C-USA, SOS: 167
#52 UTEP, 21-8 (9-5), C-USA, SOS: 143
#66 Drexel, 20-9 (11-7), CAA, SOS: 112
#67 UCF, 18-9 (5-9), C-USA, SOS: 79
#70 Colorado State, 18-10 (8-6), Mountain West, SOS: 61
#71 Iona, 20-10 (13-5), MAAC, SOS: 133
#72 Rider, 22-9 (13-5), MAAC, SOS: 199
#73 Nebraska, 18-10 (6-8), Big XII, SOS: 67
#74 Dayton, 19-10 (7-7), A-10, SOS: 63
#76 American, 21-8 (11-3), Patriot, SOS: 247
#77 Portland, 20-10 (7-7), WCC, SOS: 130
#78 Morehead State, 22-9 (13-5), OVC, SOS: 241
#80 Minnesota, 17-11 (6-10), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#81 Valparaiso, 21-10 (12-6), Horizon, SOS: 149
#82 Ole Miss, 18-11 (6-8), SEC, SOS: 56
#84 Quinnipiac, 21-8 (13-5), NEC, SOS: 283
#85 Oklahoma State, 17-11 (5-9), Big XII, SOS: 36
#89 Michigan, 18-12 (8-9), Big Ten, SOS: 30
#101 Miami, 17-12 (5-9), ACC, SOS: 41
#107 Northwestern, 16-12 (6-11), Big Ten, SOS: 58
#118 NC State, 15-13 (5-9), ACC, SOS: 38
#135 South Carolina, 14-13 (5-9), SEC, SOS: 44
#136 Iowa State, 15-14 (2-12), Big XII, SOS: 70
#155 Stanford, 14-14 (7-10), Pac-10, SOS: 72
#161 Virginia, 14-14 (5-9), ACC, SOS: 74
#166 Oregon, 14-14 (7-9), Pac-10, SOS: 83

2011 Tournament Watch

2011-02-21T02:01:00.000-08:00

The following NCAA basketball tournament projections are based on the February 21st Rogers Poll. The "SOS" data from below refers to the team's strength-of-schedule ranking.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31):

These teams are currently projected to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

#1 Kansas, 25-2 (10-2), Big XII, SOS: 17
#2 Ohio State, 25-2 (12-2), Big Ten, SOS: 31
#3 San Diego State, 27-1 (12-1), Mountain West, SOS: 94
#5 Duke, 25-2 (12-1), ACC, SOS: 56
#6 Pittsburgh, 24-3 (12-2), Big East, SOS: 25
#9 Utah State, 25-3 (12-1), WAC, SOS: 148
#10 Arizona, 23-4 (12-2), Pac-10, SOS: 58
#12 Florida, 21-5 (10-2), SEC, SOS: 16
#14 George Mason, 23-5 (14-2), CAA, SOS: 71
#21 Belmont, 25-4 (17-1), A-Sun, SOS: 242
#23 Temple, 21-5 (11-2), A-10, SOS: 101
#31 UAB, 19-7 (9-4), C-USA, SOS: 57
#32 Wichita State, 22-6 (13-3), MVC, SOS: 147
#33 Harvard, 20-4 (9-1), Ivy, SOS: 238
#34 Cleveland State, 23-6 (12-4), Horizon, SOS: 166
#35 Coastal Carolina, 25-3 (15-1), Big South, SOS: 334
#38 St. Mary's, 22-6 (10-2), WCC, SOS: 180
#39 Long Island, 22-5 (14-2), NEC, SOS: 286
#40 Fairfield, 22-5 (14-2), MAAC, SOS: 267
#41 College of Charleston, 21-7 (13-2), SOCON, SOS: 160
#49 Vermont, 22-6 (13-2), AEC, SOS: 225
#67 Oakland, 20-9 (15-1), Summit, SOS: 146
#68 Bucknell, 20-8 (11-1), Patriot, SOS: 194
#71 Morehead State, 21-8 (12-4), OVC, SOS: 257
#92 Montana, 19-8 (11-3), Big Sky, SOS: 275
#98 Kent State, 17-9 (8-3), MAC, SOS: 173
#99 Hampton, 19-7 (9-4), MEAC, SOS: 326
#105 FAU, 19-9 (11-3), Sun Belt, SOS: 234
#109 Long Beach State, 17-10 (11-2), Big West, SOS: 184
#140 Stephen F. Austin, 16-8 (7-5), Southland, SOS: 339
#158 Texas Southern, 14-10 (12-1), SWAC, SOS: 297

AT-LARGE "LOCKS" (20)

Though the following teams do not project to receive automatic bids to the tournament, they are expected to capture an at-large bid.

#4 BYU, 25-2 (11-1), Mountain West, SOS: 51
#7 Texas, 23-4 (11-1), Big XII, SOS: 20
#8 Purdue, 22-5 (11-3), Big Ten, SOS: 11
#11 Georgetown, 21-6 (10-5), Big East, SOS: 2
#13 Notre Dame, 21-5 (10-4), Big East, SOS: 23
#15 Vanderbilt, 20-6 (8-4), SEC, SOS: 18
#16 North Carolina, 20-6 (10-2), ACC, SOS: 12
#17 Syracuse, 22-6 (9-6), Big East, SOS: 24
#18 Connecticut, 20-6 (8-6), Big East, SOS: 10
#19 Wisconsin, 20-6 (10-4), Big Ten, SOS: 29
#20 Villanova, 21-6 (9-5), Big East, SOS: 40
#22 Texas A&M, 21-5 (8-4), Big XII, SOS: 82
#24 Kentucky, 19-7 (7-5), SEC, SOS: 13
#25 Old Dominion, 22-6 (12-4), CAA, SOS: 64
#26 Xavier, 20-6 (11-1), A-10, SOS: 46
#27 Louisville, 20-7 (9-5), Big East, SOS: 19
#28 UNLV, 20-7 (8-5), Mountain West, SOS: 33
#29 Missouri, 21-6 (7-5), Big XII, SOS: 89
#30 Cincinnati, 21-6 (8-6), Big East, SOS: 83
#42 West Virginia, 17-9 (8-6), Big East, SOS: 4

"BUBBLE" (31 teams for 17 spots)

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament and are currently expected to earn a berth.

#36 UTEP, 20-6 (8-3), C-USA, SOS: 149
#37 Memphis, 20-7 (8-4), C-USA, SOS: 59
#43 Richmond, 21-7 (10-3), A-10, SOS: 127
#44 Missouri State, 21-7 (13-3), MVC, SOS: 128
#46 Florida State, 19-7 (9-3), ACC, SOS: 91
#48 St. John's, 17-9 (9-5), Big East, SOS: 1
#50 Washington, 18-8 (10-5), Pac-10, SOS: 47
#51 Georgia, 18-8 (7-5), SEC, SOS: 28
#52 UCLA, 19-8 (10-4), Pac-10, SOS: 50
#53 VCU, 21-8 (12-4), CAA, SOS: 111
#54 Kansas State, 18-9 (6-6), Big XII, SOS: 26
#55 Colorado State, 18-8 (8-4), Mountain West, SOS: 72
#56 Nebraska, 18-8 (6-6), Big XII, SOS: 76
#59 Illinois, 17-10 (7-7), Big Ten, SOS: 14
#60 Virginia Tech, 17-8 (7-5), ACC, SOS: 78
#61 Clemson, 18-9 (7-6), ACC, SOS: 68
#64 Tennessee, 16-11 (6-6), SEC, SOS: 3

The following teams boast resumes that warrant consideration for an at-large bid to the tournament, but are not currently expected to earn a berth.

#45 Southern Miss, 20-6 (9-4), C-USA, SOS: 153
#57 Minnesota, 17-9 (6-8), Big Ten, SOS: 22
#58 Butler, 20-9 (12-5), Horizon, SOS: 92
#62 Alabama, 18-8 (10-2), SEC, SOS: 116
#65 Dayton, 19-9 (7-6), A-10, SOS: 63
#72 Boston College, 16-10 (6-6), ACC, SOS: 15
#81 Maryland, 17-10 (6-6), ACC, SOS: 66
#84 Marquette, 16-11 (7-7), Big East, SOS: 21
#85 Baylor, 17-9 (6-6), Big XII, SOS: 103
#95 Michigan State, 15-11 (7-7), Big Ten, SOS: 8
#101 Tulsa, 15-11 (8-4), C-USA, SOS: 52
#107 USC, 15-12 (7-7), Pac-10, SOS: 44
#130 Mississippi State, 14-12 (6-6), SEC, SOS: 73
#138 Oregon, 14-12 (7-7), Pac-10, SOS: 79

"MIRACLE WATCH" (29) - NIT/CBI/CIT watch

The following teams are outside the bubble looking in. Each boasts enough quality on their resumes to avoid complete dismissal, but they would need a miracle to usurp a bubble team for an at-large bid.

#47 Princeton, 20-5 (8-1), Ivy, SOS: 209
#63 Valparaiso, 20-8 (11-4), Horizon, SOS: 137
#66 James Madison, 20-9 (9-7), CAA, SOS: 130
#69 Gonzaga, 19-9 (9-3), WCC, SOS: 113
#70 Portland, 19-9 (6-6), WCC, SOS: 132
#73 Murray State, 21-7 (12-4), OVC, SOS: 304
#74 Duquesne, 17-8 (9-3), A-10, SOS: 150
#75 Ole Miss, 17-10 (5-7), SEC, SOS: 55
#76 Furman, 20-7 (12-4), SOCON, SOS: 292
#77 Drexel, 18-9 (9-7), CAA, SOS: 105
#78 Marshall, 18-9 (6-6), C-USA, SOS: 118
#79 Oklahoma State, 16-10 (4-8), Big XII, SOS: 42
#80 Rider, 20-9 (11-5), MAAC, SOS: 190
#82 American, 19-8 (9-3), Patriot, SOS: 232
#83 Washington State, 17-10 (7-8), Pac-10, SOS: 81
#86 Michigan, 17-11 (7-8), Big Ten, SOS: 34
#88 Northwestern, 16-10 (6-9), Big Ten, SOS: 65
#97 Arkansas, 16-10 (5-7), SEC, SOS: 100
#100 Miami, 16-11 (4-8), ACC, SOS: 48
#102 Penn State, 14-12 (7-8), Big Ten, SOS: 7
#106 Colorado, 16-11 (5-7), Big XII, SOS: 87
#110 California, 14-13 (7-8), Pac-10, SOS: 9
#114 NC State, 14-12 (4-8), ACC, SOS: 39
#132 Providence, 14-13 (3-11), Big East, SOS: 61
#133 Rutgers, 13-13 (4-10), Big East, SOS: 32
#134 South Carolina, 13-12 (4-8), SEC, SOS: 45
#136 Iowa State, 14-13 (1-11), Big XII, SOS: 84
#149 Stanford, 13-13 (6-9), Pac-10, SOS: 62
#156 Virginia, 13-13 (4-8), ACC, SOS: 70